# Should You Buy Bitcoin (BTC)? Supply, Demand and Price Drivers (Oct 2026)

*Originally published at https://mrnasdog.com/research/btc (checked Oct 14 2026)*

As of Oct 14 2026, Bitcoin scores 8.5/10 on our framework, and its supply-and-demand signal reads **positive**.

- **Signal today:** positive (Oct 14 2026)
- **MrNasdog score:** 8.5/10 — supply 3.5/5, demand 5/5
- **New coins:** +0.20% in 90 days · +0.82% in a year
- **Demand:** exceptional (5/5)
- **Drivers:** 2 ▲ price up · 0 ▼ price down

## Big wallets, votes and dates behind BTC

3 things outside the score can move BTC's price — today 2 ▲ up, 0 ▼ down.

### ▲ The 4-year cycle

since the Apr 2024 halving · next halving about Apr 2028

Bottom zone (day ~900) → price up · Top zone (day ~530) → price down. Now: ▲ up side.

*Checked Oct 14 2026*

### ▲ Big buyers

Still buying: about +80K BTC in 90 days.

▲ Price up if: They keep buying. ▼ Price down if: They sell. Right now it points up.

| Date | ETFs | Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 31 2026 | 1,258,737 BTC | 845,050 BTC |
| Sep 30 2026 | 1,289,807 BTC | 847,666 BTC |
| Oct 4 2026 | — | 848,000 BTC |
| Oct 7 2026 | 1,288,650 BTC | — |

*Checked Oct 10 2026*

### • Possible sellers

Mt. Gox deadline Oct 31 2026; US moved 12K seized BTC.

▲ Price up if: Coins stay put. ▼ Price down if: Coins sent to sell.

| Date | Mt. Gox | US gov |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 30 2026 | 34,388 BTC | 328,372 BTC |
| Jul 31 2026 | 34,388 BTC | 324,552 BTC |
| Aug 31 2026 | 34,388 BTC | 324,552 BTC |
| Sep 30 2026 | 34,388 BTC | 324,552 BTC |

*Checked Oct 14 2026*

## New BTC hitting the market

Bitcoin adds about 40.8K new BTC every 90 days to miners, and nothing burns or locks any. Supply grows a steady 0.20% a quarter under the 21M cap.

New BTC: +0.20% in 90 days, +0.82% in a year. Supply score 3.5/5, "steady".

## Who wants Bitcoin right now

Bitcoin demand: 5/5 (**exceptional**), place #1 among 110 coins — interest today plus the buying that could come later.

Members get the rest of the Bitcoin demand read on mrnasdog.com.

## Questions about BTC

### Is it a good time to buy Bitcoin today?

By the law of supply and demand, Bitcoin's long-run signal is positive (Oct 14 2026, score 8.5/10). New supply: +0.20% in the next 90 days. Demand: exceptional (5/5). Bitcoin's price drivers: 2 ▲ price up, 0 ▼ price down.

### Why is Bitcoin dropping if big buyers are still buying?

Sellers are likely the reason. Mt. Gox must pay out the rest of its coins by Oct 31 2026, and the US moved 12K seized BTC. Big buyers still added about 80K BTC in 90 days, so the selling looks short-term rather than a broken story. Our supply-and-demand read for Bitcoin stays positive.

### Bitcoin or XRP: which one has the better supply story?

Bitcoin looks stronger. It scores 8.5/10 against XRP's 6/10 on Oct 10 2026. Bitcoin adds just +0.20% new supply in 90 days, while XRP adds +1.14% as about 0.3B XRP leaves Ripple's escrow every 30 days. By supply and demand, Bitcoin's long-run signal is positive today.

### Can Bitcoin reach $1,000,000?

At $1,000,000, Bitcoin would be worth about $20.1 trillion in total — about 12 times its $1.66 trillion market cap today (Oct 14 2026, about $82,757 a coin). Bitcoin's supply also grows +0.82% in the next year, so every extra coin needs buyers too. That leaves Bitcoin's long-run signal at positive, by supply and demand.

### Is it time to take profit on Bitcoin?

Bitcoin's signal is positive for now. Bitcoin's signal would turn if new supply jumps (today +0.20% in 90 days), or demand falls from exceptional.

### Is Bitcoin a good investment right now?

Bitcoin sits at 8.5/10 today (Oct 14 2026): supply 3.5/5, demand 5/5. One more year adds +0.82% to Bitcoin's supply. Long-run signal: positive.

### When is a good time to buy Bitcoin?

By the law of supply and demand, the better time to start a position in Bitcoin is when its new supply is low, demand is high and its price drivers point up. Bitcoin today: +0.20% new supply in 90 days (steady), demand exceptional (5/5), drivers 2 ▲ / 0 ▼.

### What could push Bitcoin's price up or down?

Right now 3 things drive Bitcoin's price (2 ▲, 0 ▼). ▲ The 4-year cycle: since the Apr 2024 halving · next halving about Apr 2028 ▲ Big buyers: Still buying: about +80K BTC in 90 days. • Possible sellers: Mt. Gox deadline Oct 31 2026; US moved 12K seized BTC.

### Should I buy Bitcoin or Ethereum?

Side by side on Oct 14 2026: Bitcoin at 8.5/10 with a positive signal, Ethereum at 6.5/10 with a mixed signal. By supply and demand, Bitcoin is the stronger of the two.

## Where to read the rest of BTC

- BTC supply, line by line: https://mrnasdog.com/research/btc/inflation
- Where Bitcoin sits among all coins: https://mrnasdog.com/coins
- Why supply and demand decide BTC's signal: https://mrnasdog.com/research/pressure-framework/full

*Every answer here applies basic economic theory — the law of supply and demand — to this coin's data. It is not financial advice.*