# Filecoin (FIL) — Should You Buy? Signal, Supply and Price Drivers (Oct 2026)

*Originally published at https://mrnasdog.com/research/fil (checked Oct 11 2026)*

Our read on Filecoin for Oct 11 2026: a **negative** long-run signal and a score of 3.5/10, from new supply, demand and what moves the price.

- **Signal:** negative (Oct 11 2026)
- **Score:** 3.5/10 — supply 1.5/5, demand 2/5
- **Supply growth:** +2.25% in 90 days · +8.19% in a year
- **How much people want it:** weak (2/5)
- **Price drivers:** 0 ▲ price up · 1 ▼ price down

## New FIL hitting the market

Filecoin added 34.62M FIL in 90 days from launch vesting, freed storage collateral and block rewards, against a 578K burn: supply up 4.09%. The vesting ends Oct 14 2026, so about 2.25% next.

New FIL: +2.25% in 90 days, +8.19% in a year. Supply score 1.5/5, "heavy", #33 of 101 for new supply.

## Demand: how much people want FIL

Filecoin demand: 2/5 (**weak**), place #65 among 110 coins — interest today plus the buying that could come later.

Extra Filecoin demand detail for members stays on the live page.

## The things that move Filecoin

2 things outside the score can move FIL's price — today 0 ▲ up, 1 ▼ down.

### ▼ Storage on network

Storage on Filecoin has more than halved in about 340 days.

More data stored → price up · Storage keeps shrinking → price down. Now: ▼ down side.

| Date | Storage capacity |
|---|---|
| Jul 29 2026 | 1.47 EiB |
| Aug 31 2026 | 1.38 EiB |
| Sep 27 2026 | 1.34 EiB |
| Oct 10 2026 | 1.27 EiB |

*Checked Oct 10 2026*

### • Makers' decisions

Solstice upgrade on Oct 19 2026 ties rewards to paid storage.

▲ Price up if: Paid storage grows. ▼ Price down if: Backers pull back more.

| Date | What happened / what is coming |
|---|---|
| May 27 2026 | Fire Horse upgrade live |
| Aug 24 2026 | Protocol Labs cuts IPFS |
| Sep 28 2026 | Solstice on testnet |
| Sep 30 2026 | IPFS team winds down |
| Oct 19 2026 | Solstice on mainnet (coming) |

*Checked Oct 10 2026*

## Filecoin: buy, sell or hold — questions and answers

### Should I buy Filecoin now, or wait?

By the law of supply and demand, Filecoin's long-run signal is negative (Oct 11 2026, score 3.5/10). New supply: +2.25% in the next 90 days. Demand: weak (2/5). Filecoin's price drivers: 0 ▲ price up, 1 ▼ price down.

### Is Filecoin dead now that its storage keeps shrinking?

Not dead, but shrinking. Storage on Filecoin has more than halved in about 340 days. The Solstice upgrade on Oct 19 2026 ties rewards to paid storage, which should show how much real demand is left. By supply and demand, Filecoin's long-run signal is negative today.

### Why does the Filecoin price keep going down?

Mostly too much supply for too few buyers. Filecoin adds +2.25% new supply in 90 days and +8.19% in a year, while demand reads weak at 2/5. Less storage on the network gives buyers little reason to step in. For Filecoin, the supply-and-demand signal is negative right now.

### Can Filecoin reach $100?

At $100, Filecoin would be worth about $83.3B in total — about 92 times its $910M market cap today (Oct 11 2026, about $1.09 a coin). Filecoin's supply also grows +8.19% in the next year, so every extra coin needs buyers too. Our supply-and-demand read for Filecoin stays negative.

### Is it time to take profit on Filecoin?

Filecoin's signal is negative for now. Filecoin's signal would turn if new supply keeps arriving (+2.25% in 90 days), or demand falls from weak, or Storage on network keeps pointing down. The next date on Filecoin's calendar: Oct 19 2026 — Solstice on mainnet.

### Is Filecoin a good investment right now?

Filecoin sits at 3.5/10 today (Oct 11 2026): supply 1.5/5, demand 2/5. One more year adds +8.19% to Filecoin's supply. Long-run signal: negative.

### When is a good time to buy Filecoin?

By the law of supply and demand, the better time to start a position in Filecoin is when its new supply is low, demand is high and its price drivers point up. Filecoin today: +2.25% new supply in 90 days (heavy), demand weak (2/5), drivers 0 ▲ / 1 ▼.

### What could push Filecoin's price up or down?

Right now 2 things drive Filecoin's price (0 ▲, 1 ▼). ▼ Storage on network: Storage on Filecoin has more than halved in about 340 days. • Makers' decisions: Solstice upgrade on Oct 19 2026 ties rewards to paid storage.

### Should I buy Filecoin or Bitcoin?

Side by side on Oct 11 2026: Filecoin at 3.5/10 with a negative signal, Bitcoin at 8.5/10 with a positive signal. By supply and demand, Filecoin is the weaker of the two.

## Go deeper on Filecoin

- FIL supply, line by line: https://mrnasdog.com/research/fil/inflation
- Where Filecoin sits among all coins: https://mrnasdog.com/coins
- Why supply and demand decide FIL's signal: https://mrnasdog.com/research/pressure-framework/full

*Every answer here applies basic economic theory — the law of supply and demand — to this coin's data. It is not financial advice.*