Sui (SUI): no inflation, but 60% of supply still unvesting.

Fixed 10B supply, no protocol inflation. But ~59.9% of total supply is still locked under scheduled vesting through ~2030 — the same structural shape as Ondo, smoother glide path.

The setup

Sui is a layer-1 PoS smart-contract platform written in Move, built by Mysten Labs and stewarded by the Sui Foundation. Mainnet launched April 12, 2023 (genesis epoch 0, derived from the official RPC). Total supply is fixed at 10B SUI, verified directly via suix_getTotalSupply("0x2::sui::SUI") on fullnode.mainnet.sui.io.

Live numbers from the Sui mainnet RPC:

• Total supply: 10B SUI (fixed cap, verified on-chain)
• Current epoch: 1137 · 128 active validators
• Total staked: ~7.42B SUI (74.2% of total)
• Circulating: ~4.005B (40.1%) · Locked: ~5.99B (59.9%)
• Price ~$1.065 · market cap ~$4.27B · FDV ~$10.65B

The sell ledger

What the design predictably puts on the market.

Inflation: zero. The 10B cap is enforced at the protocol level (RPC confirms getTotalSupply() returns exactly 10B). New SUI is never minted on a schedule.

Vesting is THE structural sell line. With 5.99B still locked and the vest stretching out toward ~2030, the implied monthly release is in the range of 50–100M SUI/month depending on cliff structure. At today's circulating ~4.0B, an additional ~5.99B coming over ~4 years means circulating supply will roughly 2.5× before the vest is complete. Tag A — schedule published.

Tag B is Mysten Labs + Sui Foundation already-unlocked portions. De-duped against #2 (anything still on the schedule stays in #2). Plus discretionary Foundation deployments — flagged TBD pending on-chain enumeration.

The buy ledger

What the design predictably takes off the market.

Sui has no structural buyback or burn. The much-discussed storage fund is a rebate system for past storage costs, not a burn. Gas demand exists (every Sui transaction requires SUI for gas), but the reference gas price is low and on-chain volume produces modest daily demand.

Net position

Sell, Tag A: ~1.5B+ SUI/year (rough estimate of 5.99B over ~4 years). Buy, Tag A: minimal (gas demand only). Net structural dilution to circulating supply: substantial — circulating will roughly double in the next 24 months under the published vest schedule.

This is the same structural shape as Ondo and TAO: scheduled supply up, structural buy minimal. Different mechanics (vesting cliffs vs. cliff days vs. block emission), same direction.

What flips the buy ledger

A revenue-funded buyback would need governance to introduce one — none on the roadmap publicly. The natural buyer for SUI is application demand on the chain; if a flagship Sui app generates significant fee volume and the protocol routes some fees to a buyback, the picture changes. No such mechanism exists today.

What to watch

1) Sui Foundation tokenomics page — monthly unlock disclosures; track cliff dates. 2) Mysten Labs + Sui Foundation wallet activity — large transfers visible on SuiVision / SuiScan. 3) Storage fund balance over time via RPC. 4) Any on-chain gas-burn reform proposal.

Data note. Total supply (10B) read directly from the Sui mainnet RPC via suix_getTotalSupply on 0x2::sui::SUI. Current epoch + total staked + validator count from suix_getLatestSuiSystemState. Genesis date inferred from epoch math. Circulating supply cross-checked via CoinGecko. Vesting schedule details from the Sui Foundation tokenomics page; precise per-month unlock pace requires the published cliff schedule.