My track record

How I got into crypto

I started looking at crypto in early 2017. I was working at a top VC firm at the time, and one of the founders we were talking to mentioned he'd put money into Bitcoin. That got me curious. I spent a few months reading and watching, and in the summer of 2017 I bought my first Bitcoin at around $2,000 to $3,000.

That was eight years ago. I've been investing in crypto full-time ever since. I quit the VC job in 2018 and I haven't had a regular job since. Everything I spend has come from my investments. So this isn't a hobby for me. It's how I've lived for the last eight years.

What's on this page

I've made ten major calls in that time. Five worked. Two didn't. Three are still playing out right now. I'm putting all of them on this page, the wins and the losses, because I don't trust anyone in crypto who only shows you their wins.

Here's the short version of how I got here.

2017 — buying the panic

In 2017, I bought heavily when China banned crypto and everyone panicked. Bitcoin dropped to around $3,500. I bought a lot. Then I sold pieces of it as it ran up to $17,000 to $18,000. That was my first real win.

2018 — the worst year

In 2018, I made my biggest mistake. I was sure ETH was going higher. I bought a lot of it at $1,300 to $1,400 and I used leverage on multiple platforms. I was wrong. ETH kept falling. My liquidation hit at $208. I lost 95% of my crypto. That was the worst year of my investing life.

2019 — selling an apartment to buy back

In 2019, I sold an apartment to buy back in. Bitcoin was at $3,300. I went heavy. I also figured out the four-year cycle thesis around this time and posted it on YouTube. That video is still up (this is the English version I reposted, the original is linked in the description). Almost every prediction in that video, from 2019 to 2025, played out.

2023 — Solana and Layer 2

In 2023, I researched the Solana ecosystem and Layer 2s in the summer. I bought into both. One coin from that thesis was Hivemapper (HONEY), and it returned 10x to 15x for me. The L2 plays also worked.

2025 — half right, half wrong

In 2025, my four-year cycle thesis told me Bitcoin would pump in Q4. It did. I was right about that. But I made a second prediction at the same time that was wrong: I thought altcoins would follow Bitcoin like they did in past cycles, and that Bitcoin dominance would drop from 60% to 45%. It didn't happen. Altcoins went the other way. The market structure had changed: high FDV, low float, way too many new coins competing for the same retail money. I cut around 70% of my crypto on those positions.

That mistake is what's shaping how I think now.

2026 — what I'm holding now

Right now I have three live calls.

First, RWA coins should pump in 2026 to 2027 because the Genius Act and Clarity Act finally give real regulatory clarity for tokenized real-world assets. The buyer here is institutional money, not retail.

Second, AI-related coins should pump as the AI agent infrastructure gets built out. AI and crypto sit at an intersection that institutional capital will route through.

Third, altcoin season isn't dead. It's delayed. Crypto has matured faster than the old four-year cycle expected, so I think altcoin season comes in 2026 to 2027, and Bitcoin dominance keeps trending down gradually for years after that.

You can watch all three of these play out in real time. Every position I hold against these calls is on my live portfolio page.

If I'm wrong, you'll see it here. That's the deal.