My money, on the table.

THE IDEA — This portfolio holds only Bitcoin. The plan is to try to buy it when it is cheap and try to sell it when it is expensive. What tells me cheap from expensive is my own four-year cycle theory: Bitcoin has moved in a rough four-year rhythm for its whole life — a crash, a long quiet stretch when almost nobody wants it, a slow recovery, then a fast run when everybody does. I try to buy in the quiet part and sell into the run. I never know exactly where the bottom or the top is, and nobody does. I am only trying to be roughly right about which part of the cycle we are in.

WHAT I HAVE DONE — In 2019 I worked out this four-year cycle logic and published it. I bought Bitcoin at about $3,500 and sold between $30,000 and $40,000. That was not the top — the top of that cycle was around $60,000. In 2022 I bought again at about $21,000 and sold at about $105,000. This time I bought at about $76,000, and I am trying to sell into the next bull market.

THE CONCLUSION — Two cycles, real money, and the logic has held so far. But “it has worked” is not “it will work again.” I do not know whether $76,000 will turn out to be a good entry, I am trying rather than predicting, and I have been wrong before. This is simply what I do with my own money, shared in the open. It is not advice for you.

My full history, including the losses, is on the track record page.

THE IDEA — Over the long run I expect Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market to shrink. It is important to be clear about what that does and does not mean: it is not a call for Bitcoin to fall. Bitcoin can keep going up while its slice of the pie gets smaller. The reason is that blockchains keep finding real uses and real users, and the coins behind those uses should end up holding more of the value.

That is why this portfolio holds mainstream altcoins — the larger, established names rather than small speculative ones. Each coin in here has its own coin research behind it. It also holds exchange tokens, for a simple reason: whichever altcoins turn out to be the winners, people still have to trade them somewhere. An exchange earns from the activity itself, so it can benefit from the trend without me having to pick the one right coin.

This is a long-run view rather than a timing call, and it is the slowest part of my thinking to pay off so far — the shift has taken longer than I expected it to. I hold this because of where I think crypto goes over years, not months, and I may be wrong about it. This is simply what I do with my own money, shared in the open. It is not advice for you.

My full history, including the losses, is on the track record page.

THE IDEA — Instead of trying to find one winning coin, this portfolio tries to find the winning theme. A theme is a group of coins that share the same story and tend to move together — so if the theme is right, several coins in it can rise at once, and I do not have to be exactly right about which single name leads.

The two themes here are AI coins and real-world-asset coins, the ones that bring things like bonds and property on-chain. My reasoning on the second one is written up in my RWA research. There is no equivalent write-up for AI yet, because that story is already well known — the harder question there is which coins actually benefit, not whether the theme is real.

The reason to hold a theme early is timing. A theme usually exists long before the market pays attention to it. Decentralised finance is the clearest example: those projects had been building since around 2019, and the market only repriced them in 2021. That gap — between a theme appearing and a theme running — is the window this portfolio is trying to sit inside.

This is the aggressive portfolio for a reason. These coins are smaller, so they can move much further in both directions, and a theme that never catches on simply does not pay. I could be too early, or I could be wrong about the theme altogether, and the losses here would be larger than in the other portfolios. That risk is taken on purpose, not by accident. This is simply what I do with my own money, shared in the open. It is not advice for you.

My full history, including the losses, is on the track record page.

THE IDEA — This portfolio mixes three things on purpose: Bitcoin as the base, a small number of altcoins I genuinely believe in, and stablecoins held deliberately rather than by accident.

The stablecoins are the part people usually misread. They are not sitting there to play safe — they are sitting there to buy. Every so often crypto falls hard and fast, and the cause is normally something from outside the market: a crisis, a political shock, a sudden panic. COVID did it in March 2020, and October 2025 was the most recent one — a steep drop, then a quick recovery. Those windows are short, and you can only use them if the money is already waiting. So part of this portfolio stays in cash for exactly that moment: buy while good coins are far below where they were, then sell back into the recovery if it comes.

It is the most careful of the four. It is not trying to catch the biggest move, and it will probably never show the most exciting number on this page. It is trying to move forward in steps, and to give back less when the market turns.

This is also the only place on the site where I hold something back. The total, the chart and the gain or loss stay open to everyone — but the exact coins, and how much of each I hold, are for members. This is the account where my own conviction is on the line name by name, so it is the one I share in full only with the people who back the work.

This is simply what I do with my own money, shared as openly as I can. It is not advice for you.

My full history, including the losses, is on the track record page.