My own analysis / A trade I made
Why I Sold Half My LINK
A big LINK release is due in October. Last year, the same release came right before a big fall.
This audio is generated by an AI tool.
(This is my own view, not financial advice. I could be wrong.)
Today I sold half of my LINK, the coin of Chainlink. In my Core altcoins portfolio it went from 106.55 to 53.3 LINK, and I moved that money into Bitcoin. LINK is about $14.4 as I write. The reason is Chainlink's next token release, and Bitcoin.
Chainlink (LINK)Our LINK page: supply and the next releases→1A big LINK release is due in October
LINK has a fixed supply of 1 billion coins. About 748M are in the market. The Chainlink team keeps the rest, about 252M LINK, in 33 wallets, and releases about 7% of all LINK a year in batches, roughly four times a year.
The autumn batch is the big one: 18.75M LINK, about $270M at today's price. It came on Sep 15 in 2023, Sep 20 in 2024 and Oct 10 in 2025. This year it hasn't come yet, so it's probably due any day now. Then another 11.25M usually comes around Dec 18. Together that's about 4% more LINK in 90 days. Here is how it shows on our LINK page today:
Where do these coins go? Most of each batch goes straight to an exchange. Last year's autumn batch went there all at once, the same day. These coins cost the team nothing, and coins sent to an exchange are most likely there to be sold.
| Autumn release | LINK | Where it went |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 15 2023 | 18.75M | 15.70M to an exchange, 3.05M to a team wallet |
| Sep 20 2024 | 18.75M | 18.125M to an exchange, 0.625M to a team wallet |
| Oct 10 2025 | 18.75M | All 18.75M to an exchange, the same day |
| Oct 2026 | 18.75M | Due now, not released yet |
2What happened to LINK after last year's release?
The day before last year's release, LINK was $21.99. One week later it was down 24.5%. After 90 days it was down 40%. It kept falling for months and hit its lowest close, $7.20, on Jun 30 2026. That's 67% below where it started.
3Is it the release, or Bitcoin?
To be fair, the release was not the only reason for that fall. Oct 10 2025 was also a crash day for the whole market, and Bitcoin fell too. So I checked the same autumn release in the two years before:
| Autumn release | LINK, 90 days after | Bitcoin, 90 days after |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 15 2023 | +150% | +62% |
| Sep 20 2024 | +104% | +55% |
| Oct 10 2025 | −40% | −25% |
In 2023 and 2024, LINK went up after the same release, by 150% and 104%, because Bitcoin was going up. In 2025, Bitcoin went down, and LINK fell about twice as hard.
So my read is roughly this: the release alone probably doesn't decide the price. Bitcoin does. If Bitcoin keeps rising, buyers can likely take 18.75M LINK, like in 2023 and 2024. If Bitcoin turns down, the team's free coins land on a weak market, and LINK could fall much harder, like last year. That's my worry, and it's why I moved the money into Bitcoin: last year, Bitcoin fell less.
4What could prove me wrong
If Bitcoin keeps going up, LINK could rise with it, like in 2023 and 2024, and I'd miss part of that move. Chainlink also buys LINK back every week and keeps it in its Reserve, which is a good sign for the long run. That's why I sold only half, not all of it.
5MrNasdog's Thought
I think Chainlink is still a real project with real users. My worry is only the next few months: a big release, coins that cost the team nothing, and a Bitcoin that might turn down.
Last year that mix probably hurt LINK a lot. I don't know if it will happen again. So I took the safer road: I sold half and moved it into Bitcoin, which is likely a bit steadier if the market falls. I still hold the other half.
Just my personal view. — MrNasdog
(Again, this is my own view, not financial advice. Please check the numbers yourself before you decide anything.)
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