No single dated event in the next 90 days.
Stakers earn new ADA; treasury votes released even more.
ADA runs Cardano: 37.55B coins circulate, 83% of the 45B cap. The rest sits in a protocol reserve and an on-chain treasury that only holders' votes can spend.
Sell pressure. Stakers got 112.05M new ADA from the reserve in 90 days, and voted treasury payouts released 165.96M more, led by one 120M grant. Nothing vests.
Buy pressure. No burn and no buyback. Only 417.8K ADA was gifted back to the treasury.
Net. Net, supply grew about 0.74% in 90 days; about 0.30% is expected next.
Every five-day epoch the protocol takes 0.3% of the ADA still in its reserve, adds the fees users paid, sends a fifth of that pot to the treasury and pays the rest to stake pools and their delegators. The reserve fell from 6.26B to 6.08B ADA in these 90 days; 66.4M of it went to the treasury and 112.05M reached stakers as new ADA, about 1.24M a day. The reward shrinks a little each epoch with the reserve.
ADA has no vesting schedule. The launch coins were handed out long ago, and the only ADA outside circulation is the protocol reserve and the on-chain treasury, which leave only through staking rewards and holder votes.
The on-chain treasury holds 1.37B ADA and pays out only when holders' representatives vote yes. Fourteen payouts were enacted from Jul 13 to Aug 17 2026, led by 120M ADA for a 12-month DeFi growth program and 25.4M for Intersect. None is booked for the next 90 days: the one open request (11.8M ADA) has under 4% support, and only 42.6M ADA is left under the spending cap that runs to about Jul 3 2027. Foundation, company and program wallets are already circulating, so their sales add nothing.
No bankruptcy estate, trustee or long lock is releasing ADA. Staked ADA can be moved at any time, so staking locks nothing away.
Nothing buys ADA back. Fees go to stakers and the treasury, not to a buyback.
Cardano burns no fees. The 648,920 ADA of fees paid in these 90 days went into the reward pot, so they are already netted out of the staking figure above.
No foundation, company or treasury program bought ADA in this window. The Cardano Foundation has been moving part of its reserve from ADA into bitcoin and cash.
About 21.27B ADA is delegated to stake pools, but delegated ADA stays in the owner's wallet and can be spent at any time, so it stays in the float.
Anyone can send ADA into the treasury, which takes it out of circulation. Two gifts made up almost all of it: 70,346 ADA on Aug 2 2026 and 347,424 ADA on Aug 28 2026. Gifts have no schedule, so none is counted for the next 90 days.
Two sides: how much people want ADA right now, and how much buying could come later.
This part is based on social media. It shows how hot ADA is right now. A better rank means more people are talking about it.
Today, people are talking about ADA for two reasons:
By Oct 16 2026, Cardano votes had sent 457.4 million ADA out of the treasury, out of a 500 million ADA limit for this period, so only about 42.6 million ADA is left. The biggest grants were 120 million ADA for AlphaGrowth's Cardano PRIME and 50 million ADA for an Orion fund with Draper Dragon. People ask which new projects can still get money, and if the limit will be raised.
From Oct 6 to Oct 11 2026, the network handled 1,780,896 transactions, more than the old record of 1,566,974 from November 2021. Even so, ADA fell about 11% this week, from near $0.25 to about $0.22 on Oct 17 2026. People ask why more use did not lift the price, and if $0.21 will hold.
Checked Oct 17 2026
Supply and demand point to a mixed long-run signal for Cardano (Oct 17 2026, score 6/10). Cardano adds +0.30% new supply in 90 days, and demand reads moderate (3/5). Cardano's price drivers: 0 ▲ price up, 1 ▼ price down.
Low: about +1.24% a year, or +0.30% in the next 90 days (Oct 11 2026). About 37.5B ADA are out of a 45B maximum, so roughly 7.5B ADA are still to come before the cap. Our supply-and-demand read for Cardano stays mixed.
Yes, TRON looks healthier today. It scores 7/10 with a positive signal, while Cardano sits at 6/10 and mixed (Oct 11 2026). USDT on Tron grew 20% in 365 days, while Cardano's DAO payouts cut its treasury about 18% since Dec 31 2025. Supply and demand still read mixed for Cardano in the long run.
Cardano trades near 24.7 cents (Oct 17 2026). $1 a coin means a $37.5B market cap, 4.1 times today's $9.27B. Cardano's supply also grows +1.24% in the next year, so every extra coin needs buyers too. Supply and demand still read mixed for Cardano in the long run.
We would read Cardano differently if new supply jumps (today +0.30% in 90 days), or demand falls from moderate, or DAO treasury keeps pointing down. Until then Cardano's signal stays mixed. Mark this date for Cardano: Oct 23 2026? — Spot ETF decision.
Cardano scores 6/10 on our framework (Oct 17 2026): supply 3/5 (light), demand 3/5. Over the next year Cardano's supply changes +1.24%. The long-run signal is mixed.
Supply and demand favor Cardano most when little new supply is coming, demand is strong and the price drivers point up. Right now Cardano has +0.30% new supply in 90 days (light), demand moderate (3/5), drivers 0 ▲ / 1 ▼.
Cardano's price drivers today: 0 pointing up, 1 pointing down, out of 2. ▼ DAO treasury: DAO payouts cut the treasury about 18% since Dec 31 2025 • ETF and upgrades: First spot ADA ETF decision could come around Oct 23 2026
Cardano: mixed signal, 6/10 · Bitcoin: positive signal, 8.5/10 (Oct 17 2026). By supply and demand, Cardano reads weaker than Bitcoin today.
Every answer here applies basic economic theory — the law of supply and demand — to this coin's data. It is not financial advice. How we read every coin →
We look at two things, half each: supply and demand. Fewer new coins mean less selling pressure. A meme coin scores 1.5 at most on supply: its team got its coins for free, so no new supply does not make it safe. We also show each coin's age, with a warning when it is younger than 1 year. Demand looks at how much people want the coin now and how much buying could come later. Price Drivers (Beta) are the 2 or 3 things that can move one coin's price that supply and demand miss; they have no score. ADA supply grows +0.30% in the next 90 days, so it shows in red: more ADA reaches the market than is removed. Zero or falling supply is always green, any growth is red.
One email before each big supply event, and the day our verdict changes. Nothing else. You can watch 2 coins for free.
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