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MrNasdog Pressure Framework

AERO · the mint is a share of a supply it keeps growing.

AERO is the token of Aerodrome, the largest exchange on Base — 982.69M circulating out of 1.97B minted, no cap. The other half sits in vote-escrow locks of up to four years.

Sell pressure. Thirteen weekly batches minted 61.13M — liquidity rewards, a team stream, and a top-up paid to lockers. Each batch is a fixed slice of a supply that just got bigger, so every one is larger.

Buy pressure. Nothing is burned, and nothing can be. The only thing taking AERO off the market is vote-locking, which absorbed a net 22.14M — about a third of the mint.

Inflation
Last 90 Days
+3.97%
updated · Aug 31 2026
Net flow: 3.97% of supply goes to market over 90 days
Next 90 Days
+4.22%
estimate
Net flow: 4.22% of supply goes to market next 90 days
Supply growing · projected to keep growing
Upcoming · Next 90 Days
  • Next weekly batch+4.79M
    Sep 3 2026 · new AERO to liquidity pools
  • Merger swap for the sister exchange+114.6M
    Date not set · would be created for their holders — not executed yet
  • Buyback-and-burn mandate switched onfirst burn
    Date not set · would remove AERO for good
Sell pressure
1. Protocol inflation
52.29M AERO

New AERO is created once a week and handed to the pools that provide liquidity. Thirteen batches landed in this window and each one was bigger than the one before — 4.63M at the start, 4.78M near the end — because the size is set as a fixed share of a supply the batch itself just enlarged. The often-quoted rule that the mint shrinks 1% a week no longer applies; that phase ended and the flat share replaced it.

updated · Aug 31 2026
2. Vesting unlocks
0

There is no vesting calendar and no escrow contract holding AERO for anyone. Unlock trackers show a release on Sep 3 2026, but that date is simply the next weekly batch, which is already counted above — booking it again would count the same coins twice.

checked · Aug 31 2026
3. Foundation + unscheduled unlocks
2.86M AERO

The team takes a cut of every weekly batch and it landed 13 times for 2.86M. The cut is not the 2.28% the paperwork implies: the contract sizes it against an old frozen number rather than the live batch, so it works out at roughly 5.4% of what the pools receive. Watched alongside it: a 29.40M team multisig that barely moved, a 2.12M team wallet, and up to 114.6M more that would be created for holders of the merging sister exchange if that swap is ever executed.

updated · Aug 31 2026
4. Long-term locked or bankruptcy
0

There is no bankruptcy estate, trustee schedule or court-ordered distribution holding AERO. Locks do run out — they last up to four years — but every expiry is already subtracted inside the locking row on the other side, so nothing belongs here.

checked · Aug 31 2026
5. Anti-dilution top-up to lockers
5.97M AERO

On top of the weekly batch the contract creates a second, smaller batch and pays it to everyone who has locked, so their share is not diluted. It is genuinely new supply — 5.97M of it — and it is shown separately rather than buried in the mint above. It is paid straight into the locks, so it also shows up inside the locking row and the two cancel out.

updated · Aug 31 2026
Buy pressure
1. Programmatic buyback
1.57M AERO

The protocol converts part of its revenue into AERO on the open market and locks it for the maximum term. Traced from the converting contract itself rather than from a wallet balance: 12 purchases, 1.57M in all. The weekly figures the project posts are larger because they count every coin removed from circulation, not just the ones bought.

updated · Aug 31 2026
2. Protocol fee burn
0

Nothing is burned and nothing can be. The token contract has no burn function at all, and the graveyard address held the same 2,001 AERO at both ends of the window. Trading fees are paid out in the traded assets, not in AERO, so the fee engine never touches supply.

checked · Aug 31 2026
3. Foundation buy
0

There is no separate treasury bid. Every inflow to the buyback wallet was traced to its sender this window: the only open-market leg is the converter counted above, and the rest is one treasury moving coins to another.

checked · Aug 31 2026
4. New long-term lock
20.57M AERO

Locking is the entire buy side of this coin. The lock contract held 964.09M at the start and 986.23M at the end — a net 22.14M absorbed after every expiry and exit, shown here as 20.57M because the buyback's own locking is already counted above. Locked AERO sits outside the tradable count, so a coin going in leaves the market exactly as a burned one would.

updated · Aug 31 2026

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Supply check · sell, buy & net
 
Last 90D
Next 90D
Sell total (M AERO)
61.126
63.579
Buy total (M AERO)
22.142
22.142
Sell % of circ
+6.220%
+6.470%
Buy % of circ
+2.253%
+2.253%
Net inflation %
+3.967%
+4.217%
Score (0–2)
0.3
0.3
Verdict
avoid
avoid
Circulating supply: 982.686M AERO
Read the inflation analysis
The full Pressure Framework write-up for AERO.
Why a shrinking rate still produces a bigger mint every week.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of AERO, Metric 1 (Inflation Monitor). Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated Aug 31 2026.