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MrNasdog Pressure Framework

AERO · a ve(3,3) DEX that prints new tokens to liquidity every week.

AERO is the token of Aerodrome, the largest ve(3,3) DEX on Base — ~964.8M circulating, with no fixed cap: new AERO is minted every weekly epoch to liquidity gauges, while a large share sits vote-locked as veAERO.

Sell pressure. Weekly gauge emission adds about ~52.3M AERO over 90 days — roughly 4.07M each epoch at the Aero Fed tail rate.

Buy pressure. No buyback and no burn — 100% of trading fees go to veAERO voters. The only offset is holders locking ~13.1M AERO into vote-escrow.

Net. About +4.1% to market over 90 days — supply is growing, driven entirely by the emission.

Inflation
Last 90 Days
+3.98%
updated
Net flow: 3.98% of supply goes to market over 90 days
Next 90 Days
+4.06%
estimate
Net flow: 4.06% of supply goes to market next 90 days
Supply growing · projected to keep growing
monitor gap · Our supply monitor reads net circulating growth near +4.76% over the last 90 days, about 0.7 point above the +4.1% our ledger books. On-chain, the Aerodrome minter emitted about 4.07M AERO an epoch to liquidity gauges through Jul 13 2026 — roughly 52M over the 90 days — while the vote-escrow contract's locked balance rose about 19M over the same window, some 13M of it fresh locks that pull AERO off the float. Netting the emission against those locks leaves about +4.1%. The residual gap is base convention plus the monitor's upstream counting some vote-locked and team AERO in its circulating base that our ledger holds as locked or non-selling. We keep our primary read.
Upcoming · Next 90 Days
  • Aerodrome × Velodrome merger into Aero~5.5% new supply
    Expected Q3 2026 · added to market
Sell pressure
1. Protocol inflation
~52.3M AERO

New AERO is minted every weekly epoch straight to liquidity gauges, where it is paid to the pools that veAERO voters back. At the current Aero Fed tail rate the protocol emits about 4.07M AERO an epoch — roughly 0.21% of total supply — which is about 52.3M reaching the float over 90 days. This weekly gauge emission is the entire engine of new AERO supply, and it is by far the largest force on the page.

updated · Jul 13 2026
2. Vesting unlocks
0

There is no third-party investor or seed cliff inside the window. AERO's launch allocations — airdrop, team and ecosystem — were handed out as vote-locked veAERO and are already inside total supply, so on-chain supply rises smoothly with the emission and shows no cliff step to book here.

checked · Jul 13 2026
3. Foundation + unscheduled unlocks
0

The standing team-controlled overhang is the vote-escrow lock — roughly 1.04B AERO sits locked as veAERO — plus a small team allocation of about 0.16M an epoch (~2.1M over 90 days) that mints to the team wallet and has not been seen selling. The one live catalyst is the pending Aerodrome and Velodrome merger into Aero, which would issue new AERO to VELO holders — mostly as locked veAERO — but it has not hit the chain and has no confirmed date, so no value is booked. Monitored.

checked · Jul 13 2026
4. Long-term locked or bankruptcy
0

No bankruptcy estate or court-ordered distribution applies to AERO.

permanent · no change
Buy pressure
1. Programmatic buyback
0

Aerodrome runs no buyback. In the ve(3,3) design, 100% of trading fees are routed to veAERO voters as bribes and fees, so the protocol never buys AERO back off the market. There is no buy-side offset from this row.

checked · Jul 13 2026
2. Protocol fee burn
0

There is no protocol fee burn. Trading fees are paid out to voters rather than sent to a burn address, so no AERO is destroyed on each trade.

checked · Jul 13 2026
3. Foundation buy
0

No discretionary open-market buying by the team or a foundation has been observed; the protocol accumulates fees as revenue, not as AERO bought back on the market.

checked · Jul 13 2026
4. New long-term lock
~13.1M AERO

Holders keep locking AERO into 4-year-max vote-escrow to vote and earn. On-chain, the veAERO locked balance rose about 19M over the last 90 days; stripping out the roughly 5.9M weekly rebase that is minted already-locked leaves about 13.1M of AERO that holders pulled off the float into veAERO. That lock absorbs part of the gauge emission and is the only real offset to new supply.

updated · Jul 13 2026

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Supply check · sell, buy & net
 
Last 90D
Next 90D
Sell total (M AERO)
51.500
52.300
Buy total (M AERO)
13.100
13.100
Sell % of circ
+5.338%
+5.421%
Buy % of circ
+1.358%
+1.358%
Net inflation %
+3.980%
+4.063%
Score (0–2)
0.3
0.3
Verdict
avoid
avoid
Circulating supply: 964.800M AERO
Read the inflation analysis
The full Pressure Framework write-up for AERO.
Why a ve(3,3) DEX with no buyback still reads inflationary — and what the merger changes.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of AERO (Aerodrome), Metric 1 (Inflation Monitor). Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated Jul 13, 2026.