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MrNasdog Pressure Framework

APT · staking emission plus monthly unlocks, no buy side.

APT is the gas and staking token of Aptos, a proof-of-stake Layer 1 — ~819M circulating, moving toward a proposed 2.1B supply cap.

Sell pressure. Staking still mints new APT (rate just halved to 2.6%), and ~11.3M/month vesting unlocks land through Oct 2026 — together ~39M APT to market this window.

Buy pressure. 100% of the base gas fee is burned (raised 10× in 2026), but the pace is tiny next to emission — and there is no buyback.

Net. About 4.8% of supply to market over 90 days — heading up, until the unlock cycle ends in October.

Inflation
Last 90 Days
+4.80%
updated · Jun 12 2026
Net flow: 4.80% of supply goes to market over 90 days
Next 90 Days
+4.80%
estimate
Net flow: 4.80% of supply goes to market next 90 days
Supply growing · projected to keep growing
monitor gap · Scheduled monthly unlocks (~11.3M APT, next Jul 12 2026) plus ~2.6% staking emission give a gross +4.8%; the monitor reads +3.4% net, because the Foundation's 210M permanent lock (early 2026) and immediate re-staking absorb part of each unlock. Framework books the gross scheduled flow.
Upcoming · Next 90 Days
  • Monthly vesting unlock~11.3M APT
    Jul 12 2026 · added to market
Sell pressure
1. Protocol inflation
~5.4 APT

Staking rewards mint new APT. The reward rate was cut from 5.19% to 2.6% in early-2026 governance — at 2.6% on the circulating base this is ~5.4M over 90 days, roughly half the prior pace.

checked · Jun 12 2026
2. Vesting unlocks
~33.9 APT

Investor + core-contributor vesting releases on monthly cliffs of ~11.3M APT. Three cliffs land inside the window (~33.9M); the 4-year cycle ends Oct 2026, after which the pace drops sharply.

checked · Jun 12 2026
3. Foundation + unscheduled unlocks
0

Tracked overhang: ~1.28B APT still unvested toward the proposed 2.1B cap. The Foundation permanently locked 210M APT in early 2026, removing that block from the float — no further discretionary release observed.

checked · Jun 12 2026
4. Long-term locked or bankruptcy
0

No bankruptcy estate. The 210M Foundation lock is permanent, not a timed release.

checked · Jun 12 2026
Buy pressure
1. Programmatic buyback
0

No protocol buyback — staking rewards are paid from new emission, not from buying APT on the market.

checked · Jun 12 2026
2. Protocol fee burn
0

100% of the base gas fee is burned, and gas was raised 10x in 2026 — but the absolute pace is tiny next to staking emission, so it nets to zero at this scale. Scales with on-chain activity.

checked · Jun 12 2026
3. Foundation buy
0

No Foundation accumulation programme.

checked · Jun 12 2026
4. New long-term lock
0

No new staking-lock programme with an announced quantum (the 210M Foundation lock is counted as a removed overhang, not a buy).

checked · Jun 12 2026

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Algorithm check · raw inputs & outputs
 
Last 90D
Next 90D
Sell total (M APT)
39.300
39.300
Buy total (M APT)
0.000
0.000
Sell % of circ
+4.799%
+4.799%
Buy % of circ
0.000%
0.000%
Inflation (sell − buy) %
+4.799%
+4.799%
Score (0–6)
1
1
Verdict
avoid
avoid
Circulating supply: 819.000M APT · inflation = (sell − buy) / circulating × 100
Read the Inflation Analysis
APT: staking emission plus monthly unlocks, no buy side.
Long-form mechanism walk. ~5 min.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of APT, Metric 1 (Inflation Monitor). Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated Jun 12, 2026.