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MrNasdog Pressure Framework

APT · the emission got halved, but the unlock calendar is still the whole story.

APT is the native coin of Aptos, a Move-based proof-of-stake chain — ~845.20M circulating out of 1,206.26M minted so far, under a protocol-enforced ceiling of 2.1B. Two taps add supply at once: coins the chain mints for stakers, and coins the 2022 allocation calendar hands out every month.

Sell pressure. About 38.93M APT over 90 days — but only 5.00M is newly minted. The other 33.93M is the monthly unlock, 11.31M a time, three times a quarter.

Buy pressure. Just 0.62M APT, all of it gas fees being destroyed. There is no buyback, and fee burn at this activity level cancels about 1.6% of what arrives.

Net. About +4.53% to market over 90 days — heading up, and it stays that way until the unlock calendar runs out on Oct 12 2026.

Inflation
Last 90 Days
+4.53%
updated · Jul 27 2026
Net flow: 4.53% of supply goes to market over 90 days
Next 90 Days
+4.53%
estimate
Net flow: 4.53% of supply goes to market next 90 days
Supply growing · projected to keep growing
Upcoming · Next 90 Days
  • Monthly allocation unlock+11.31M APT
    Aug 12 2026 · added to market
  • Monthly allocation unlock+11.31M APT
    Sep 12 2026 · added to market
  • Final four-year-cycle unlock+11.31M APT
    Oct 12 2026 · added to market
Sell pressure
1. Protocol inflation
~5.00M APT

Validators mint fresh APT every two-hour epoch and pay it to stakers. The rate on the chain right now is 2.60% a year on the 769.0M APT actually staked, which works out at about 5.00M APT over 90 days. It used to be 5.19%; the network halved it on Mar 16 2026 and the setting has already reached its floor, so it does not step down again on its own.

updated · Jul 27 2026
2. Vesting unlocks
~33.93M APT

The original four-year allocation calendar still releases about 11.31M APT on the 12th of every month, and three of those landed in the window. This is by far the biggest single source of supply on Aptos — roughly seven times the staking mint. Three more land next: Aug 12, Sep 12 and Oct 12 2026, and that last one closes the four-year investor and core-contributor cycle for good.

checked · Jul 27 2026
3. Foundation + unscheduled unlocks
0

Two team-controlled pools are tracked. About 361.06M APT sits outside the tradable float, released only by the published monthly calendar in row 2. Inside that sits the 210M APT the Aptos Foundation locked permanently in Mar 2026 — it stays staked forever, and the Foundation has said it funds itself from the rewards on those coins instead of selling them. Nothing moved outside the calendar. No public evidence of release in window — monitored.

checked · Jul 27 2026
4. Long-term locked or bankruptcy
0

There is no Aptos bankruptcy estate, no trustee and no court-ordered distribution of APT. Nothing can enter the market from this row.

permanent · no change
Buy pressure
1. Programmatic buyback
0

Aptos runs no buyback. The Foundation has said it is exploring one funded from cash reserves and future revenue, but nothing has been voted, funded or deployed, and no wallet is buying APT on the open market. Capacity is not a programme. No public evidence of purchase in window — monitored.

checked · Jul 27 2026
2. Protocol fee burn
~0.62M APT

Every APT paid in gas is destroyed — 100% of fees, with the fee level raised tenfold in the Mar 2026 overhaul. That removed about 0.62M APT over 90 days and the pace is steady at roughly 0.20M a month. It is real deflation, but at this level of network activity it cancels only about one-sixtieth of the supply arriving from the other side.

updated · Jul 27 2026
3. Foundation buy
0

No Aptos Foundation or Aptos Labs entity has disclosed an open-market APT purchase, and none is visible on the chain. No public evidence of purchase in window — monitored.

checked · Jul 27 2026
4. New long-term lock
0

No new lock was created in the window. The 210M APT the Foundation locked permanently was executed back in Mar 2026, and those coins had never been tradable, so counting them now would invent deflation nobody experienced. Ordinary staking is not a lock either — the unstaking wait is only 14 days.

checked · Jul 27 2026

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Supply check · sell, buy & net
 
Last 90D
Next 90D
Sell total (M APT)
38.930
38.860
Buy total (M APT)
0.620
0.610
Sell % of circ
+4.606%
+4.598%
Buy % of circ
+0.073%
+0.072%
Net inflation %
+4.533%
+4.526%
Score (0–2)
0.3
0.3
Verdict
avoid
avoid
Circulating supply: 845.200M APT
Read the inflation analysis
The full Pressure Framework write-up for APT.
Why halving the emission barely moved the number, and what changes in October.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of APT, Metric 1 (Inflation Monitor). Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated Jul 27, 2026.