AAVAX · Avalanche
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MrNasdog Pressure Framework

AVAX · inflation plus Foundation cliff; burn cancels almost none.

720M hard cap with 431.77M circulating; staking emission decays toward the cap. Last 90 days released ~4.0M from validator inflation and ~1.67M from the Foundation 10-year quarterly cliff — only the Foundation bucket is still vesting. Native fee burn took back ~0.1M. Net runs at about +1.3% / 90D.

Inflation
Last 90 Days
+1.29%
updated · Jun 4 2026
Net flow: 1.29% of supply goes to market over 90 days
Next 90 Days
+1.29%
estimate
Net flow: 1.29% of supply goes to market next 90 days
Supply growing · projected to keep growing
Sell pressure
1. Protocol inflation

Validator block reward issuance per the Native Token Dynamics decay curve. Realised rate ~3.78%/yr × 431.77M circulating × 90/365 ≈ 4.0M / 90D. Emission decays toward the 720M hard cap.

~4.0M AVAX
updated · Jun 4 2026
2. Vesting unlocks

Foundation 10-year linear-quarterly cliff: ~1.67M AVAX per event on Feb 11 / May 12 / Aug 10 / Nov 11. Exactly one event lands per 90D window — verifiable on-chain by Foundation wallet inflow on cliff date. All other genesis buckets (Team, Strategic Partners, Sale, Airdrop, Endowment, Seed) are fully done.

~1.67M AVAX
updated · Jun 4 2026
3. Foundation + unscheduled unlocks

No public evidence of release in window — monitored. §0.45.3.4 enumeration: Avalanche Foundation + Ava Labs (single decision-maker for AVAX custody deployment). Custody balance grows by 1.67M each quarter; trailing 90D on-chain outflows ≈ 0. Deployment programme announcement would lift this row materially.

0 AVAX
checked · May 30 2026
4. Long-term locked or bankruptcy

No bankruptcy estate. No long-term lockups (>90D) scheduled to unlock in window.

0 AVAX
checked · May 30 2026
Buy pressure
1. Programmatic buyback

No protocol-level buyback mechanism.

0 AVAX
permanent · no change
2. Protocol fee burn

100% of transaction fees burned on X / C / P chains and on AVAX-paying L1s. Observed pace ~0.10M / 90D (cumulative ~5.02M by May 2026). Cancels ~2% of the sell side at current activity.

~0.10M AVAX
updated · Jun 4 2026
3. Foundation buy

No Foundation accumulation programme.

0 AVAX
permanent · no change
4. New long-term lock

No scheduled cap-expansion or lockup programme in window.

0 AVAX
checked · May 30 2026

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Algorithm check · raw inputs & outputs
 
Last 90D
Next 90D
Sell total (M AVAX)
5.670
5.670
Buy total (M AVAX)
0.100
0.100
Sell % of circ
+1.313%
+1.313%
Buy % of circ
+0.023%
+0.023%
Inflation (sell − buy) %
+1.290%
+1.290%
Score (0–6)
3
3
Verdict
mixed
mixed
Circulating supply: 431.770M AVAX · inflation = (sell − buy) / circulating × 100
Read the full Pressure Framework analysis
AVAX: hard cap, but the Foundation is still vesting and the burn doesn't cover it.
Long-form Metric 1 + 2 read. Origin-first from Foundation tokenomics docs + C-Chain. ~5 min.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of AVAX, Metrics 1 & 2. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated May 27, 2026.