AAVAX · Avalanche
Inflation analysis
Subscribe — free email
MrNasdog Pressure Framework

AVAX · the staking mint now outruns a shrunken fee burn.

AVAX is the gas and staking token of Avalanche, a proof-of-stake network with a 720M hard cap~431.8M circulating, with new coins minted as staking rewards and every transaction fee burned.

Sell pressure. Staking rewards mint about 3.4M AVAX over 90 days toward the cap, plus a quarterly 1.67M Foundation vesting cliff on Aug 10 2026.

Buy pressure. Every fee is burned — but after the base fee was cut to a floor, that is only about 0.11M AVAX over 90 days, a fraction of the mint.

Net. About +1.15% to market — with burn now far below the mint, supply is growing, not flat.

Inflation
Last 90 Days
+1.15%
updated
Net flow: 1.15% of supply goes to market over 90 days
Next 90 Days
+1.15%
estimate
Net flow: 1.15% of supply goes to market next 90 days
Supply growing · projected to keep growing
monitor gap · Framework reads real on-chain staking emission (~3.4M AVAX/90d minted toward the 720M cap, ~201.9M staked) plus the Aug 10 2026 quarterly Foundation cliff (1.67M), net of the ~0.11M C-Chain base-fee burn = +1.15%; the monitor's circulating base (mcap/price, snapshot Jul 13 2026) held near-flat at ~431.8M because newly-minted rewards are classified as staked/non-float and the cliff lands in Foundation custody — a classification gap, not a data error. Both agree supply is growing; primary kept.
Upcoming · Next 90 Days
  • Foundation quarterly vesting cliff~1.67M
    Aug 10 2026 · added to market
Sell pressure
1. Protocol inflation
~3.4M AVAX

Avalanche mints new AVAX as staking rewards to validators and delegators — all validator income is newly minted, because transaction fees are burned rather than paid out. With about 201.9M AVAX staked (a 46.76% staking ratio) earning roughly 6.8% a year, the protocol mints on the order of 3.4M AVAX over 90 days toward the 720M hard cap. This is the largest single supply force.

checked · Jul 13 2026
2. Vesting unlocks
~1.67M AVAX

The Foundation allocation — 9.26% of supply, about 66.67M AVAX — vests on a quarterly schedule of 1.67M AVAX per cliff. The next cliff lands Aug 10 2026, inside this window (the prior cliff was May 12 2026). These tokens unlock into Foundation custody, so they are new unlocked supply but do not immediately reach the trading float.

checked · Jul 13 2026
3. Foundation + unscheduled unlocks
0

No discretionary Foundation market sale was observed in the window — the quarterly cliff is already counted above and lands in custody. Tracked team-controlled overhangs: the Foundation treasury (about 66.67M allocation, with roughly 28.34M still on the quarterly vesting schedule) and the ~31.67M of AVAX that is minted but not yet circulating.

checked · Jul 13 2026
4. Long-term locked or bankruptcy
0

No bankruptcy estate or court-ordered distribution applies to AVAX.

permanent · no change
Buy pressure
1. Programmatic buyback
0

Avalanche runs no buyback program. Validator income comes from newly minted staking rewards plus burned fees, not from a treasury buying AVAX on the market.

checked · Jul 13 2026
2. Protocol fee burn
~0.11M AVAX

Every C-Chain base fee, and the priority fee too, is permanently burned under Avalanche's EIP-1559-style dynamic fee. After the ACP-125 upgrade cut the minimum base fee from 25 to 1 nAVAX, burn is low — recent activity burns about 1,000 to 1,300 AVAX a day, roughly 0.11M over 90 days, far below the ~3.4M staking mint. Cumulative lifetime burn is about 5.4M AVAX.

checked · Jul 13 2026
3. Foundation buy
0

There is no Foundation open-market buying of AVAX.

checked · Jul 13 2026
4. New long-term lock
0

AVAX staking locks and auto-relock are structural to the consensus mechanism, not a new lockup event created in this window.

checked · Jul 13 2026

My research. My portfolio. Free.

Deep research weekly. My real holdings monthly.

Supply check · sell, buy & net
 
Last 90D
Next 90D
Sell total (M AVAX)
5.070
5.070
Buy total (M AVAX)
0.110
0.110
Sell % of circ
+1.174%
+1.174%
Buy % of circ
+0.025%
+0.025%
Net inflation %
+1.149%
+1.149%
Circulating supply: 431.770M AVAX
Read the inflation analysis
The full Pressure Framework write-up for AVAX.
Why AVAX inflates even with a fee burn.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of AVAX, Metric 1 (Inflation Monitor). Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated Jul 13, 2026.