BSV Inflation Analysis · September 2026 · Mixed flows, supply roughly steady
The Pressure Framework reads BSV at +0.20% over the trailing 90 days and +0.20% over the next 90 — a quiet reading, and every point of it comes from one mechanism. Bitcoin SV pays a 3.125 BSV block subsidy and nothing else creates coins: no premine, no vesting, no treasury, no fee burn and no buyback. Sell pressure is 40.4K BSV across 12,928 blocks actually mined, buy pressure is 0, and the ceiling is Bitcoin's own hard 21,000,000— of which 20,081,437.5 is already mined, leaving under 5% to come over the next century.
The verdict, in one paragraph
Against a circulating base of 20,081,437.5 BSV, the framework books 40,400 BSV of sell pressure and 0 of buy pressure over the trailing 90 days — a net of +0.20% — and projects +0.20% for the next 90 days on the same subsidy at the same measured block rate. The inflation monitor reads +0.25% for the same window, a gap of 0.05 percentage points, which is comfortably inside the framework's 0.5pp tolerance, so this page ships with no data-conflict warning. The two columns are identical, and that is a finding rather than a copy-paste: the subsidy in force was 3.125 BSV at both ends of the window, the next halving does not arrive until block 1,050,000 — roughly Apr 2028 — and the measured block rate carries forward, so the same reward over the same number of blocks gives the same number twice. The label for BSV is a hard-capped proof-of-work chain whose only supply mechanism is the block subsidy: predictable, small, and impossible to talk up or down.
Sell pressure: where new BSV comes from
It comes from mining, and from mining alone. Bitcoin SV split from Bitcoin Cash on Nov 15 2018 and inherited Bitcoin's monetary policy untouched: a 21,000,000 hard cap and a subsidy that halves every 210,000 blocks. Sell #1, protocol inflation, is therefore the only non-zero row on the page, at 40.4K BSV. That number was measured rather than assumed, which matters on this chain more than on most. Bitcoin SV carries a small share of the combined proof-of-work hashrate, so its realised block interval can wander well away from the ten-minute target for long stretches — and a subsidy multiplied by an assumed 144 blocks a day is the classic way to overstate a quarter. Counting the blocks directly gives 12,928 mined between the two window dates, an interval of 601.5 seconds and 143.6 blocks a day. The chain ran 0.25% slow, so the round-number read of 40,500 BSV is 100 BSV too high and the correction runs downward. Because the Bitcoin SV subsidy is indexed to blocks rather than to elapsed time, and no protocol constant re-scales it, that measurement translates straight into the issuance figure.
The subsidy itself was read off real coinbase transactions at both ends rather than inferred from a halving date. Block 953,300 paid out 3.125028 BSV and the window's closing block, 966,090, paid out 3.12502242 BSV: a 3.125 subsidy at each end with a sliver of fees on top. That distinction is the whole of the arithmetic discipline here. Fees ride out of the block inside the same coinbase output as the new coins, and on Bitcoin SV they go entirely to the miner — but a fee is not issuance. It moves BSV that already existed from a spender to a miner, and booking fee revenue as new supply would inflate this row for no reason.
The other three sell rows are empty by construction. Sell #2, vesting unlocks, is 0: Bitcoin SV had no sale, no premine and no team allocation, because every coin in existence at the 2018 split went one-for-one to whoever already held the forked chain's coins. There is no release calendar to run down and no way to create one. Sell #3, Foundation and unscheduled unlocks, is 0: the association behind Bitcoin SV is funded by its members rather than by a coin reserve, and no team, treasury or labs wallet has ever been published for it. Sell #4, long-term locked or bankruptcy, is 0 as well — and it is the one row with something genuinely behind it, discussed below.
Buy pressure: where new BSV goes
Nowhere. Buy #1, programmatic buyback, is 0: nothing in the Bitcoin SV protocol and nothing at the association spends money repurchasing BSV, and no such programme was announced or executed inside the window. Buy #3, Foundation buy, is 0 for the same reason — there is no BSV-denominated treasury to spend. Buy #4, new long-term lock, is 0: Bitcoin SV is proof-of-work with no staking, no bonding and no lockup contract, so the only way a coin leaves the float is a holder choosing not to spend it, which this reading already counts as tradable.
Buy #2, protocol fee burn, is 0, and it is worth explaining how that zero was earned rather than assumed. Bitcoin SV restored the original Bitcoin rules, in which the entire block reward — the new coins plus every fee paid in the block — is paid to the miner who found it. There is no base-fee burn, no auction sink and no destroy opcode. The framework read both surfaces anyway. On the supply side, the count of BSV in existence is a pure function of block height and the halving schedule: it rose by exactly 40,400 BSV across the window and cannot fall, which means that surface could never have shown a burn and its behaviour proves nothing on its own. On the dead-address side, all three conventional unspendable Bitcoin SV addresses were read at both window ends, and between them they took in 0.03930265 BSV across seventy-two dust outputs —0.000097% of the coins issued in the same period, and data-transaction debris rather than a mechanism firing. Both surfaces read flat in the ways they are each capable of reading, so the row is a verified zero rather than an opacity. Two limits are worth stating: Bitcoin SV publishes no rich-list or unspendable-output enumeration at all, so coins sent to a bespoke unspendable script would not appear in that reading, and the per-address output listing is capped at a thousand entries, which two of the three addresses exceed — so those two figures are floors rather than complete counts. Neither limit touches the conclusion, because the conclusion does not rest on the enumeration. Everything ever sent to all three addresses across eight years totals 2,205.96 BSV, about 5%of a single quarter's mining. Even if every one of those coins had arrived inside this window, the net could not have reached zero.
Foundation and overhang
Bitcoin SV has no project-controlled overhang at all, which is unusual and is a direct consequence of the fair-launch fork. There is no foundation allocation, no DAO treasury, no buyback accumulation wallet and no unscheduled reserve. The one item worth watching sits in Sell #4: the estate of a collapsed exchange received roughly 142.8K BSVat the 2018 split, equal to its holding on the forked chain, and its trustee has stated an intention to sell that position and repay creditors in cash rather than in BSV. Fetched this session, the trustee's own announcement archive contains no 2026 entry whatsoever; the most recent notice is dated Oct 27 2025 and moved the creditor deadline to Oct 31 2026. That deadline does fall inside the next 90 days, but it is a repayment date and not a disposal date, and creditors are paid in the two other chains' coins or in fiat — never in BSV. With no dated quantum, no schedule and no observed sale, the row stays at 0. The balance is followed through the trustee's notices rather than on chain, because no confirmed estate BSV address is derivable from public Bitcoin SV data. The trigger sentence applies unchanged: if that holding is sold, or if the balance falls between refreshes, the outflow enters Sell #4 at the next refresh.
One more question this coin invites is whether any of those coins sit outside the circulating denominator, and the answer is no. The classified circulating figure of 20,081,437.5 BSVand the Bitcoin SV chain's own circulating endpoint, read the same minute at 20,081,531.25 BSV, differ by 93.75 BSV — exactly thirty blocks of snapshot lag and nothing else. There is no non-circulating bucket on this coin. Every litigation-attached coin and every long-dormant early-mining balance is already inside the denominator, so the estate holding is an overhang on the float rather than a reserve waiting to be added to it.
How BSV compares to other capped, halving-model chains
BSV belongs to the strictest and simplest supply class there is: a hard on-chain ceiling, a decaying block subsidy on a known clock, and no second mechanism of any kind. Compared with an uncapped continuous-emission proof-of-stake L1, where a staking-linked emission of several percent a year is normal and the ceiling is a policy rather than a number in the code, Bitcoin SV is far more constrained — its issuance is already down to 0.20% a quarter and the next halving cuts it in half again. Compared with a chain whose float is governed by a vesting schedule, the difference is starker still: a coin working through a four-year investor vest can add several percent of its float a quarter without minting anything, whereas Bitcoin SV has no locked allocation in existence to release.
The instructive comparison is against Bitcoin itself, which shares the identical monetary policy and the identical 3.125 BSV-equivalent subsidy era. The two read within hundredths of a percentage point of each other, and where they differ it is purely because their realised block rates differ — the halving schedule is keyed to block height, not to the calendar, so a chain that mines slower than target simply reaches each halving later and issues slightly less in the meantime. That is the entire mechanism behind the small gap, and it is why measuring the blocks rather than assuming them is the only honest way to read a proof-of-work quarter.
The sharpest contrast is with exchange tokens that run quarterly buybacks and fee burns. Those offset issuance with a demand-linked removal that scales with usage, and their readings can go genuinely negative. Bitcoin SV has no such mechanism on paper or in code — the buy ledger is not merely quiet, it is empty by design. For this page to ever print a negative number, Bitcoin SV would need a protocol change that destroys coins, which the chain's stated commitment to the original rules explicitly rules out. The floor and the ceiling on this reading are both set by the subsidy alone.
What to watch in the next 90 days
First, the realised block rate, which is the only input that can move this number: at 143.6 blocks a day the next 90 days deliver 40.4K BSV again, and a sustained hashrate change in either direction is what would shift it. Second, the estate holding of roughly 142.8K BSV and its Oct 31 2026 creditor deadline — a dated announcement of a BSV sale would be the single largest change this page could take, adding around 0.7 percentage points to the forward reading in one step. Third, the halving at block 1,050,000, still 83,910 blocks away and due around Apr 2028, which will cut the subsidy to 1.5625 BSVand roughly halve this page's number; nothing in either current window touches it. Fourth, the Teranode rollout following the Chronicle upgrade that activated at block 943,816 on Apr 7 2026 — a scaling change with no supply consequence, but the kind of upgrade worth reading for a subsidy or fee-policy clause. Fifth, the three unspendable-address balances, 2,205.96 BSV between them and read at every rebuild, which is where any voluntary destruction would first appear.
Summary
The MrNasdog Pressure Framework reads BSV at +0.20% over the trailing 90 days and +0.20% projected forward: mixed flows, supply roughly steady. The structural mechanism is the block subsidy and nothing else — Bitcoin SV mints 3.125 BSV per block, burned nothing, bought back nothing, locked nothing, and holds a hard on-chain ceiling of 21,000,000 BSV of which 20,081,437.5 is already mined. The key risk is not issuance but the estate: roughly 142.8K BSV sits with a trustee who has said it will be sold, and that single position is worth more than three quarters of mining at the current rate. The ceiling is the genuine comfort — under 919,000 BSV remain to be issued across the rest of the schedule, and no vote, upgrade or governance decision exists on this chain that could raise it.
MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of BSV, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated Sep 10 2026.