MrNasdog Pressure Framework · full analysis
Pure PoW emission against an empty buy ledger — but the next 90 days carry a structural twist: the protocol's 5M-block reward cut fires mid-window, knocking ~20% off the daily emission rate from ~Jul 21, 2026.
Setup
Ethereum Classic launched July 20, 2016 as the un-forked continuation of the original Ethereum chain after the DAO bailout split. Its monetary policy is set by ECIP-1017: every 5,000,000 blocksthe block reward drops by 20% (a "fifthening"). That cut converges geometrically to an asymptotic supply cap of ~210.7M ETC — not a hard cap, but a practical ceiling.
- Current Era: 5 — block reward 2.048 ETC (in effect since block 20,000,000, May 31 2024)
- Next Era transition: block 25,000,000 → cuts reward to 1.6384 ETC/block
- Estimated Era 6 date: ~Jul 21, 2026 (at current ~13.1s block time, ~6,646 blocks/day)
- Current block: 24,641,777 (live block explorer · May 27 2026 16:08 UTC)
- Circulating: ~156.5M ETC · asymptotic cap ~210.7M ETC (not a hard cap)
- Mining: Etchash (PoW) — no native staking, no lockup
- Cooperative: ETC Cooperative is donation-funded — no protocol-level token treasury (ECIP-1098 Proto Treasury was proposed and rolled back)
The framework asks one structural question for any coin:
Net 90d % = (sell total − buy total) / circulating × 100
Part 1 · Sell pressureto market
Last 90 days · sell total
0.82% of circulating
Next 90 days · sell projected
0.75% of circulating
SOURCE #1
Last 90 days
Era 5 deterministic: 2.048 ETC × 6,646 blocks/day × 90 days ≈ 1.22M ETC base, plus uncle rewards (~6% empirical uplift) brings realised emission to ~1.29M ETC. Most coinbase is sold to cover miners' energy + hardware costs.
Next 90 days
Piecewise: ~54 days at 2.048 ETC/block until Era 6 transition (~Jul 21, 2026), then ~36 days at 1.6384 ETC/block. 20% rate cut is hardcoded by ECIP-1017 and cannot be changed without a hard fork.
SOURCE #2
Last 90 days
Ethereum Classic inherited the pre-2016 Ethereum state at the DAO-fork split (July 20, 2016). There is no separate ETC pre-mine, no team allocation, no investor vest. Every ETC issued since the fork came from a coinbase.
Next 90 days
Same — no vesting schedule exists.
SOURCE #3
Last 90 days
No protocol-level coinbase tax to any entity. ECIP-1098 (Proto Treasury) was proposed and rolled back — the ETC Cooperative and IOHK disagreed on direction and the proposal was withdrawn. The ETC Cooperative funds itself via donations + grants and holds no protocol-allocated reserve.
Next 90 days
Same — no proposal to introduce a protocol coinbase tax is active.
Is this rule-based? N/A. There is no rule (and no entity) to apply one to. Same structural shape as DOGE / BCH.
SOURCE #4
Last 90 days
No active ETC bankruptcy claim. Pure PoW (Etchash) — no native staking, no lockup vault, so no long-term-locked bucket exists to unlock.
Part 2 · Buy pressureoff market
Last 90 days · buy total
0.00% of circulating
Next 90 days · buy projected
0.00% of circulating
SOURCE #1
Last 90 days
No protocol-revenue mechanism. Block reward + transaction fees go entirely to miners. There is no analog to Chainlink Reserve or BNB auto-burn on Ethereum Classic.
SOURCE #2
Last 90 days
Ethereum Classic explicitly rejected EIP-1559-style base-fee burn. All transaction fees go to miners as part of the coinbase output — there is no burn function in protocol.
Next 90 days
Same — no proposal active to introduce a fee burn.
SOURCE #3
Last 90 days
The ETC Cooperative is donation-funded and focused on stewardship + ecosystem grants. No buyback / accumulation programme exists.
SOURCE #4
Last 90 days
Pure PoW chain. No native staking. No lockup mechanism. There is no "new long-term lock" that pulls ETC off the circulating supply.
Net result
Plug the totals back into the formula:
Last 90 days = (1.29M − 0) / 156.51M × 100 = +0.82% to market
Next 90 days = (1.18M − 0) / 156.51M × 100 = +0.75% to market
ETC is a clean pure-inflation case — one row carries the whole ledger, the same as DOGE / BCH. The difference is the next-90d window: the Era 6 reduction at block 25,000,000 fires roughly halfway through, so the projected number is materially lower than the last-90d realised. Realised goes from +0.82%(uniform Era 5) to a projected +0.75%(mixed Era 5 / Era 6).
After the Era 6 transition the run-rate emission falls to ~10889 ETC/day (vs ~13611 ETC/day under Era 5). At ~13.1s block time and the next 5M-block era spanning ~2.4 years, Era 7 (1.31072 ETC/block) is expected around early 2029.
Data note. Block reward schedule + 5M-block Era boundaries are origin-first from the ECIP-1017 monetary policy specification and ECIP-1039 rounding specification. Current block height + ~13.1s block time from a live block explorer. The asymptotic cap (~210.7M ETC) is the geometric limit of the 20%-per-Era emission curve including uncle rewards. End-of-pipeline monitor cross-check: +0.83% over the last 90 days, exact match with the framework primary number. ✓ verified within 0.00pp.
MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of ETC, Metrics 1 & 2. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated May 28, 2026.