HASH Inflation Analysis · September 2026 · Supply growing · projected to keep growing
Supply is growing and is projected to keep growing. The Pressure Framework records 3,401.9M HASH released from vesting and 0 verified removals, giving +5.86% over the last 90 days and +5.86% projected forward, while the monitor reads +6.70%. Provenance Blockchain creates no new HASH under its current settings, but its existing holder lockup continues to become spendable.
The verdict, in one paragraph
On the 58,081.8M HASH circulating denominator, scheduled releases produce +5.86% net pressure in each 90-day window. The monitor reports +6.70%, leaving a 0.84 percentage-point difference and a warning on the overview. The account enumeration, supply reads, official disclosures and governance review found no additional release that could responsibly fill that difference. The whole difference is explained. About 0.40 points comes from the monitor dividing by the smaller supply at the start of the window, and about 0.45 points from a one-time recount on Aug 27 2026, when the monitor added about 243M HASH that was already circulating. HASH is a non-minting settlement chain with a substantial lockup still unwinding.
Sell pressure: where new HASH comes from
Protocol inflation is 0. The native mint settings place both the minimum and maximum inflation rate at zero, and the bank supply reads 95,000M HASH at both window boundaries. Older descriptions of a variable staking emission model do not establish that it is running. Governance retains authority over the token, so zero issuance is a checked current state rather than an irreversible promise.
Vesting unlocks contribute 3,401.9M HASH. A complete scan found 448 continuous vesting accounts with 54,044.7M HASH of original allocations. Their remaining locked balance at the window endpoint was 36,899.1M HASH. Integrating each account’s own start and end times yields about 37.8M HASH becoming spendable each day. These are previously minted coins entering the available float; no new token is created by the unlock.
Foundation and unscheduled unlocks contribute 0 additional supply. The scheduled cohort already accounts for the identified non-circulating bucket, and ordinary transfers of its released coins must not be counted again. Long-term locked or bankruptcy releases also contribute 0: this review found no separate estate, trustee or court-directed distribution. Both windows last exactly 90 days, which is why the unchanged linear schedule gives equal release quantities.
Buy pressure: where new HASH goes
Programmatic buyback is 0. No demonstrated recurring market-purchase programme was found for this window. Protocol fee burn is also 0, supported by two separate checks: the burn-holding account remained at 21.5M HASH, while gross bank supply stayed at 95,000M HASH. A transfer into the burn account and a governance reduction of bank supply are different destruction paths, so reading one would not have been enough.
Foundation buying contributes 0. The community treasury increased through fee income, which is a transfer within the existing supply rather than a market purchase. New long-term lock is 0 as well: bonded HASH declined from 17,468.3M to 16,696.2M, and ordinary staking is already inside the chain’s circulating definition. Neither a standing staked balance nor a treasury balance receives a fresh removal credit.
Foundation and overhang
The largest disclosed pressure pool is the 36,899.1M HASH still locked across the complete vesting cohort. The largest individual holder had 14,745.5M HASH in its bank balance, down from 14,809.7M at the start. That account participates in the same schedule; its entire bank balance is not an additional unscheduled release. The holder’s identity should not be inferred solely from its size.
The community treasury held 41.6M HASH, compared with 33.1M at the starting boundary. Those funds are governed rather than assigned to a new release date. The cohort, largest account and treasury are readable on-chain and should be refreshed daily and at every rebuild. If a controlled balance falls beyond the release already counted, the unexplained outflow enters the Foundation row at the next refresh only after its supply boundary is established. No buyback accumulation wallet or bankruptcy residual was identified.
How HASH compares to other capped settlement chains
A fixed total and a stable tradable float are separate properties. Bitcoin-style halving schedules reduce the creation of new units over time. HASH currently has no creation at all, yet an existing restriction expires continuously and expands the usable float. A holder assessing dilution needs both the total-supply rule and the lockup schedule.
Compared with an uncapped staking chain, Provenance Blockchain has no active mint stream to finance rewards. Compared with a token carrying large quarterly cliffs, HASH releases more smoothly, without one dominant date inside this quarter. Smoothness makes the flow easier to estimate; it does not make the quantity smaller. A revenue-funded burn could offset releases, but a documented mechanism only changes this ledger when its destruction is observed.
The comparison also depends on governance authority. A currently fixed marker with no account-level minter still allows community decisions to change supply policy. That is a meaningful constraint on unilateral action, but the framework does not describe it as an immutable lifetime guarantee.
What to watch in the next 90 days
Through Dec 19 2026, check whether daily vesting continues near 37.8M HASH without account changes. Watch the burn-holding account for its first confirmed increase beyond 21.5M HASH, and check bank supply independently for any governance destruction. Review new governance proposals for emission activation, early release or changes to the HASH marker itself; a higher generic marker-module limit does not by itself create HASH. Refresh the 41.6M HASH community treasury and the largest scheduled holder for distributions beyond the existing schedule. The cohort’s main endpoint remains May 22 2029, outside this forecast.
Summary
The Pressure Framework reads HASH at +5.86% over the trailing 90 days and +5.86% projected forward. Continuous vesting releases 3,401.9M HASH while measured minting and destruction remain zero. The principal risk is the 36,899.1M HASH remaining lockup. The monitor difference stays visible, and it is fully explained by its base and the Aug 27 2026 recount. Current gross supply is 95,000M HASH, with governance authority still capable of changing the rules.
MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of HASH, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated Sep 20 2026.