JUP Inflation Analysis · October 2026 · Mixed flows · supply roughly steady

JUP, the token of Jupiter, Solana's largest trading app, did not grow at all in the last 90 days: supply fell by 0.03%. No new JUP reached the market, and a batch burn of verification fees destroyed 945,391 JUP between Jul 23 and Oct 21 2026. The power to mint JUP is switched off for good, so the only way supply can grow from here is if one of the two big reserves, holding 1.70B and 1.68B JUP, starts paying out again.

The verdict, in one paragraph

Our 90-day reading for JUP is −0.03%: zero new coins against 945,391 JUP burned, on a circulating supply of 3.32B JUP. For the next 90 days we expect about 0.00%, because the next batch burn has no date and nothing is scheduled to unlock. Other trackers show +0.00% for the same 90 days, a gap of 0.03 percentage points, small enough that no warning flag is shown. JUP is a frozen-supply token: no minting, team payouts on pause, and a buyback that keeps what it buys.

Sell pressure: where new JUP comes from

Protocol inflation is 0. The JUP mint has no mint authority, which means no wallet, team or vote can ever create another JUP. Stakers still receive 50M JUP every quarter as staking rewards, and the latest batch was paid on Oct 13 2026, but those coins come from an old airdrop pot that already counts as circulating. They move from one holder to another; they do not add supply.

Vesting unlocks are 0. Until early 2026 the team reserve sent 116.67M JUPto the team every quarter. The last payment left on Jan 31 2026. In February 2026 JUP stakers voted for the Net-Zero Emissions plan, which paused team payouts, postponed the 700M JUP Jupuary airdrop and promised that Jupiter would buy back any coins sold by the old Mercurial investors. The team reserve has not moved since. Small staff grants inside Jupiter's lock contracts still vest about 0.91M JUP a quarter, but those coins already count as circulating, and unlock trackers list no further JUP unlock.

Foundation and unscheduled unlocks are 0. The three wallets that sit outside the circulating count, the community reserve, the team reserve and a reserve vault of 159.89M JUP, made no transfers at all in the window. Team wallets inside the count did move: on Aug 5 2026 the team distribution wallet sent 40M JUP into four staking accounts, but coins that already circulate add nothing when they change hands. Long-term locked or bankruptcy supply is 0: no estate or court holds JUP.

Buy pressure: where new JUP goes

The protocol fee burn removed 945,391 JUP, about 0.03% of the circulating supply. Projects pay a fee in JUP to get their token verified on Jupiter; the coins gather in a burn wallet and are destroyed in batches. One batch burned 943,764 JUP on Sep 10 2026, and ordinary users burned about 1,600 JUP more. About 265K JUP was waiting for the next batch on Oct 21 2026. Batches come months apart, the last two in April and September 2026, so we do not count another one in the next 90 days.

The programmatic buyback books 0, even though it is large.Half of Jupiter's on-chain revenue goes to the Litterbox Trust, which buys JUP on the open market every day. It bought 26.01M JUP in the window and now holds 176.79M JUP. It keeps the coins rather than burning them, and they still count as circulating, so the buying is real demand for JUP but does not shrink the supply count. A first Litterbox pile of about 130M JUP was burned after a vote in November 2025; any further burn would need a new vote.

Foundation buying books 0: the coins Jupiter buys back from Mercurial sellers land in its own wallets, which already count as circulating. New long-term locks book 0: staked JUP still counts as circulating, so new staking takes nothing out.

Foundation and overhang

Only 48% of the 6.86B JUP that exist circulate. Almost all of the rest sits in two multisig wallets. The community reserve holds 1.70B JUP, including the 700M JUP set aside for the postponed 2026 Jupuary airdrop; it can only release coins after a new vote. The team reserve holds 1.68B JUP and has been paused since the February vote. A third vault holds 159.89M JUP. None of the three moved in these 90 days.

Inside the circulating count, Jupiter-linked wallets also hold large amounts: the Litterbox buyback wallet 176.79M, the staking-reward pot 173.40M, the team distribution wallet 191.57M, a second team wallet 126.38M and the DAO wallet 103.87M. Lock contracts hold another 260.55M JUP not yet vested, most of it self-locks by early team members that open between Jan 31 and Feb 2 2027. If any of the three reserves outside the count falls between checks, the outflow enters the unscheduled-unlock line at the next rebuild; if the Litterbox balance falls, the outflow is recorded the same way.

How JUP compares to other DEX tokens

Most trading-app tokens fall into two camps. Tokens such as CAKE that still emit new coins have to out-burn their own issuance before supply can shrink. JUP has no issuance at all, so every burned coin is a net reduction, and every new coin on the market has to come from a reserve that already exists. That makes JUP's supply question a governance question: what the DAO decides about the 1.70B community reserve and whether the team reserve stays paused.

On buybacks, JUP is closer to HYPE or RAY, where trading revenue buys the token back on the market. The difference is the destination. Where bought coins are burned, the buyback lowers supply at once; Jupiter's Litterbox holds its coins, so they stay in the circulating count and only leave it if holders vote for another burn. Compared with tokens that are still in a vesting schedule, JUP's float is unusually still: no calendar unlocks remain, and the large reserves are frozen by a vote rather than by code.

What to watch in the next 90 days

Jupuary. Any new DAO vote to release the 700M JUP airdrop from the community reserve would be the biggest supply event possible for JUP; none is scheduled as of Oct 21 2026.

The next verification-fee burn. About 265K JUP is waiting in the burn wallet. A batch would add to the buy side; the last one was on Sep 10 2026.

Buyback proposals. Forum posts this year asked to raise the Litterbox share from 50% to 70% of revenue and to burn what it buys. None has gone to a vote yet; a passed burn would turn 26M JUP a quarter into real supply reduction.

The next staking reward. The fourth-quarter batch of 50M JUP is due around January 2027. It comes from coins already counted, so it should not change the supply count.

Self-lock cliffs just after the window. About 235M JUP in self-locked team escrows opens between Jan 31 and Feb 2 2027, outside these 90 days but worth watching as the date nears.

Summary

JUP supply was roughly steady over the last 90 days at −0.03%, and we expect about 0.00% for the next 90 days. No new JUP can be minted, team payouts are paused by a February 2026 vote, and the only coins destroyed were 945,391 JUP of verification fees. The Litterbox buyback took in 26.01M JUP but holds it. The main risk is governance: 3.38B JUP sits in two paused reserves that a future vote could release.

MrNasDog Pressure Framework analysis of JUP, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Checked Oct 21 2026.