JUP Inflation Analysis · October 2026 · Mixed flows · supply roughly steady

The MrNasdog Pressure Framework reads Jupiter (JUP) as roughly steady: supply fell 0.03% over the last 90 days and is set to stay flat over the next 90. No new JUP can be created, team vesting is paused, and the 3.54B JUP held in reserve wallets outside the circulating count did not move. The only change was a token-verification fee burn of 948,427 JUP, while the Litterbox buyback bought 26.73M JUP and kept it.

The verdict, in one paragraph

Over the 90 days to Oct 11 2026, JUP sell pressure was 0 JUP and buy pressure was 948,427 JUP against 3.32B JUP in circulation, a net of −0.03%. For the next 90 days the framework projects 0 JUP of new supply and about 4,663 JUP of small burns, a net of −0.00%. The inflation monitor reads −0.03% for its own 90 days, a gap of about 0.004 percentage points, far inside the 0.5-point line, so no warning chip is shown. JUP is a fixed-supply token on pause: nothing new is printed, nothing big is unlocking, and the supply only drifts down by the small amounts Jupiter burns.

Sell pressure: where new JUP comes from

Protocol inflation is 0 JUP, and it can never be anything else. The power to create JUP was removed from the token for good, there are no validator rewards in JUP, and the total supply of about 6.86B JUP can only shrink. JUP started at 10B, lost 3B in the January 2025 burn and about 130M more when the DAO burned the Litterbox in November 2025.

Vesting unlocks are 0 JUP. The Net-Zero Emissions vote, which passed in February 2026 with about 75% of the vote, paused all team vesting and kept the planned 700M JUP Jupuary airdrop in the community cold wallet. The team cold wallet has not paid out since January 2026, and it sent nothing in this window. The Jupiter Lock vesting contracts released 2.25M JUP in these 90 days, almost all of it to early Mercurial holders, and will release about 907K JUP more by late December. Jupiter already counts those coins as circulating, so they add nothing to the supply count.

Foundation and unscheduled unlocks are 0 JUP. The three wallets that make up the non-circulating supply, the community cold wallet, the team cold wallet and a reserve vault, did not send a single transaction in the window. Other team wallets did move: a team distribution wallet sent 60M JUP to six new wallets that staked every coin, and the community hot wallet moved about 2M JUP for staking rewards. All of those coins were already counted as circulating, so they move between holders and add no new supply.

Long-term locked or bankruptcy supply is 0 JUP. No court case, trustee or old lock is selling JUP into the market.

Buy pressure: where new JUP goes

The programmatic buyback books 0 JUP, even though it is busy. Half of Jupiter's on-chain revenue goes to the Litterbox Trust, which bought 26,726,755 JUP in these 90 days and now holds 175.3M JUP. The Litterbox keeps what it buys rather than burning it, and those coins still count as circulating, so the buyback moves JUP from sellers to Jupiter and does not shrink the float. It is real demand for the coin, and we cover it in Metric 2.

The protocol fee burn is 948,427 JUP. Projects that want their token verified quickly on Jupiter pay 1,000 JUP, bought on the market, and the coins wait in a burn wallet until Jupiter burns them in a batch. The Sep 10 2026 batch destroyed 943,764 JUP, and small burns by other holders took out 4,663 more. About 545K JUP of new fees arrived in the window and 227K JUP is waiting for the next batch. The batches came about five months apart, in April and September 2026, so the next 90 days count only the small burns.

The foundation buy is 0 JUP. Jupiter promised to buy any JUP its team or Mercurial holders sell, but no such buy reached its team wallets in this window, and any buy would stay inside the float anyway. The new long-term lock is 0 JUP: staking JUP for votes and rewards has a 7-day exit, and staked JUP still counts as circulating.

Foundation and overhang

Three reserves sit outside the circulating count. The community cold wallet holds 1.70B JUP, including the 700M postponed Jupuary airdrop, and only a new DAO vote can release it. The team cold wallet holds 1.68B JUP, the paused team allocation and reserve. A third reserve vault holds 159.9M JUP and has not moved since February 2026. Together that is the 3.54B JUP gap between total and circulating supply.

Inside the float, Jupiter controls more: the Litterbox with 175.3M JUP, the community hot wallet with 223.4M for staking rewards, the team distribution wallet with 191.6M, the team hot wallet with 126.4M, the DAO treasury with 103.9M, and the team's own first-year coins, 188.8M locked until around Feb 1 2027. We read these wallets on-chain at every refresh. If the balance of any of the three outside reserves falls between refreshes, the outflow enters Sell #3 at the next refresh; if the Litterbox balance falls, the coins it sends out are tracked the same way.

How JUP compares to other DeFi tokens with buybacks

Most DeFi tokens with a buyback either burn what they buy or hand it to stakers. Jupiter does neither with its main buyback: the Litterbox holds its coins, so the buying supports the price without shrinking the supply. A buy-and-burn token turns the same revenue into a lower supply every month; JUP only gets that effect when the DAO votes to burn the pile, as it did once in November 2025. Several open forum posts ask for a larger share of revenue, up to 70%, and for automatic burns, but none has gone to a vote.

On new supply JUP is unusually clean. Many DeFi and exchange tokens still carry monthly investor or team unlocks; JUP has no mint, no staking emission and a paused team schedule, so its 90-day supply change is close to zero. The risk sits in size rather than flow: 3.54B JUP, more than the whole circulating supply, sits in reserves that a vote or a team decision could release, which is a bigger overhang than most tokens of its age.

Compared with chain tokens such as SOL, which pay validators in new coins every epoch, JUP has no built-in inflation at all. Its supply story is decided by governance choices, not by protocol math.

What to watch in the next 90 days

First, the next verification-fee burn: about 227K JUP is waiting in the burn wallet, and a new batch would add to the buy side. Second, any DAO vote on the Litterbox: a burn of its 175.3M JUP would be the largest supply cut since November 2025, and a move to automatic burns would turn the buyback into a buy row. Third, any vote to restart Jupuary or to spend the 700M postponed airdrop from the community cold wallet, which would be the largest new supply. Fourth, the team cold wallet, where any restart of team payments would show up first. Further out, the team's own 188.8M locked JUP opens around Feb 1 2027.

Summary

The MrNasdog Pressure Framework reads Jupiter (JUP) as roughly steady: −0.03% net over the last 90 days and about flat over the next 90, with no mint, paused team vesting and a 948,427 JUP token-verification fee burn. The Litterbox buyback bought 26.73M JUP but keeps it in the float, so the buying lifts demand rather than cutting supply. The key risk is the 3.54B JUP held in reserve wallets that governance could release, including the 700M postponed airdrop. Until the DAO votes to burn the Litterbox or release a reserve, JUP supply stays close to where it is.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of JUP, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Checked Oct 11 2026.