LINK Inflation Analysis · October 2026 · Supply growing · projected to keep growing

The MrNasdog Pressure Framework reads Chainlink (LINK) as inflationary: 18.75M LINK left the project's own wallets in the last 90 days, nothing was burned, and circulating supply grew +2.45%. LINK has a fixed cap of 1B coins and no mining or staking issuance, so all new supply comes from the 233.15M LINK the project still holds back and releases at about 7% of supply a year. The next step, about 11.25M LINK expected in December 2026, puts the next 90 days at +1.47%.

The verdict, in one paragraph

Net supply change for LINK over the last 90 days (Jul 13 to Oct 11 2026) was +2.45%: 18.75M LINK released against a circulating base of 766.85M, and 0 removed. For the next 90 days we expect +1.47%, one December release of 11.25M LINK. Our supply monitor read +0.03% for its own 90 days, a gap of 2.41 percentage points. That gap is a matter of timing, not a disagreement: the monitor's last reading was taken on the morning of Oct 9 2026, and the Chainlink release left the project wallets that same evening. Before the release, the monitor's supply figure and our on-chain count of the project wallets agree almost exactly, so no warning chip is shown. The label that fits Chainlink: a fixed-cap token on a steady, project-run release schedule, with no burn to offset it.

Sell pressure: where new LINK comes from

Protocol inflation is 0. The LINK token is a simple ERC-677 contract on Ethereum: all 1B coins were created in September 2017, the total is a fixed number written into the contract, and the contract has no mint function, no owner and no upgrade path. Chainlink pays node operators in fees, not in newly printed LINK.

Vesting unlocks are 0. Chainlink has no dated vesting calendar for a team or for investors. The 2017 token-sale coins were tradable from launch. The coins still held back sit in project wallets and are released by Chainlink itself, which belongs in the next row.

Foundation and unscheduled unlocks are the whole sell side: 18.75M LINK in the last 90 days. Chainlink publishes 33 wallet addresses it counts as not yet circulating, and says it releases about 7% of the total supply a year from them. On-chain, those wallets held 251.90M LINK on Jul 13 2026 and 233.15M LINK on Oct 11 2026. The whole drop came in one evening, Oct 9 2026, from eight of the wallets: 16.88M LINK went to a large exchange and 1.88M LINK to the team wallet that pays staking rewards. Since 2023 the releases have followed the same four steps every year — about 19M in late winter or spring, 21M in June, 18.75M in September or October and 11.25M in December — which adds up to 70M, exactly the stated 7%. The December step came on Dec 15 2023, Dec 20 2024 and Dec 19 2025, so the next 90 days carry one release of 11.25M LINK, expected around Dec 18 2026.

Long-term locked or bankruptcy supply is 0. No bankruptcy estate, court trustee or long lock holds LINK for later release. The US funds that hold LINK bought their coins in the market, so those coins were already counted.

Buy pressure: where new LINK goes

Programmatic buyback books 0, though it is real activity. The Chainlink Reserve, launched in August 2025, turns fees that users pay for Chainlink services into LINK and holds it. It bought 1.40M LINK in these 90 days in thirteen weekly purchases, growing from 4.80M to 6.20M LINK, and it has never sold. But the Reserve is not one of the 33 wallets Chainlink counts as held back, so its coins still count as circulating. A purchase moves LINK from one holder to another inside the market; it does not take coins out of supply.

Protocol fee burn is 0. LINK has no burn of any kind: fees go to node operators or into the Reserve, and the token contract has no burn function. Only a stray 0.75 LINK reached a dead address in the window.

Foundation buy is 0. Apart from the Reserve's weekly purchases, nothing this window shows the project or its team wallets buying LINK.

New long-term lock is 0. The community staking pool is full at 40.88M LINK and did not change size in these 90 days. Staked LINK can be withdrawn after a cooldown and still counts as circulating, so staking removes nothing from supply.

Foundation and overhang

The largest overhang is the project's own store of unreleased LINK: 233.15M LINK across 33 published wallets, nearly a quarter of the total supply. At 70M a year it would run out in a little over three years, around early 2030. Its release follows a pattern, not a signed calendar: Chainlink states the yearly rate but never posts the dates in advance, so each step is confirmed only when the coins move. We read these wallets on-chain at every rebuild.

Three other team-linked pools already count as circulating. The Chainlink Reserve holds 6.20M LINK, and Chainlink says it expects no withdrawals for years. The team wallet that receives part of each release and funds staking rewards holds 10.82M LINK. The staking reward vault holds 2.69M LINKand pays stakers over time. Selling from any of them would not add to circulating supply, but it would add coins to the market, so we track them on-chain as well. If the project wallets' balance falls between rebuilds, that outflow enters the Foundation and unscheduled unlocks row at the next rebuild.

How LINK compares to other oracle and data-network tokens

Against Pyth Network (PYTH), the closest oracle rival, LINK's supply comes in smaller and more frequent steps. Pyth also has a fixed cap (10B), but it releases in one large cliff every May; its 2026 cliff of about 2.13B PYTH landed on May 19 2026, and the next is due in May 2027. Chainlink spreads its 7% a year over four releases, so no single quarter brings a shock the size of a Pyth cliff, but the flow never really stops either.

Against The Graph (GRT), a data-indexing network, the difference is where new coins come from. GRT pays indexers with about 3% new issuance a year and burns 1% of query fees, so it has both a printer and a small burn built into the protocol. LINK has neither: no coin is ever created, and none is ever burned. LINK's supply growth is a project decision about when to release coins that already exist.

That also sets LINK apart from tokens with a real buyback that removes coins. Chainlink's Reserve buys every week, which is real demand for the coin, but it keeps what it buys inside the circulating count. Until those coins are locked or burned, the Reserve offsets selling in the market without shrinking supply.

What to watch in the next 90 days

Around Dec 18 2026: the December release step, expected at 11.25M LINK from the project wallets. If it comes later than Jan 9 2027, the next 90 days read close to 0% instead of +1.47%.

Where the released coins go: in October most of the release went to a large exchange. A larger share sent to the staking rewards wallet, or held back, would mean less coin offered for sale.

The Reserve's weekly purchases: about 75,000 to 140,000 LINK a week in this window. A move to lock or burn Reserve coins would turn it into a real buy row for the first time.

Any change to the 7% rate: Chainlink sets the release rate itself and has no token vote. A new rate on its supply page would change every forward number here.

Summary

Chainlink (LINK) is a fixed-cap token, 1B coins with no mining and no burn, whose circulating supply grows only when the project releases coins from its own wallets. Those releases ran at 18.75M LINK in the last 90 days, +2.45% net, and should be about 11.25M (+1.47%) in the next 90, following a four-step yearly cycle that adds up to 7% of supply. The Chainlink Reserve buys LINK every week with user fees, but it keeps those coins inside the float, so it does not shrink supply. With 233.15M LINK still to come, the release flow should continue for about three more years before LINK becomes fully circulating.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of LINK, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Checked Oct 11 2026.