RRAIN · Rain Protocol
Full analysis
Subscribe — free email
MrNasdog Pressure Framework

RAIN · linear vesting unlocks, thin buyback-burn counter.

Arbitrum prediction-market protocol with a 1.15T hard cap. Linear vesting began Mar 10 2026 and has been pacing at the top of the unlock leaderboards (~$10.81M/day during the Apr 13–20 peak week) — ~69B RAIN released over the last 90 days at the observed rate. Deflationary counter is a 2.5%-of-trading-volume buyback-burn (~35M / 90D at current volume) — structurally real but small.

Inflation
Last 90 Days
+11.08%
updated · Jun 4 2026
Net flow: 11.08% of supply goes to market over 90 days
Next 90 Days
+8.03%
estimate
Net flow: 8.03% of supply goes to market next 90 days
Supply growing · projected to keep growing
monitor gap · Deep walk May 31 2026: vesting started Mar 10 2026 per project disclosure; aggregator tracking shows RAIN as the top linear-vest unlock at $75.67M for week of Apr 13–20 2026 (~770M RAIN/day → ~69B / 90D). Denominator convention adds ~7pp (monitor uses 90d-ago base; framework uses current). Residual ~12pp gap to monitor +30% remains unreconciled — likely treasury / Foundation reclassification into circulating that the framework does not yet quantify.
Sell pressure
1. Protocol inflation

RAIN has a 1.15T hard cap. No protocol-level new emission; supply growth comes from scheduled vesting unlocks of the genesis allocation (Row #2).

0 RAIN
checked · May 31 2026
2. Vesting unlocks

Linear vesting began Mar 10 2026. Aggregator data: RAIN was the top linear-vest unlock at $75.67M for the week of Apr 13–20 2026 (~$10.81M/day → ~770M RAIN/day at avg price). Last 90D realised ≈ ~69B RAIN at that rate. Next 90D projects ~50B as vesting curve may taper; schedule not yet consolidated per project disclosure, flagged as estimate.

~50B RAIN
checked · May 31 2026
3. Foundation / Tag B

No public per-cohort wallet registry. Treasury + ecosystem allocations exist but are not separately disclosed as discretionary market-sale wallets. Treated as 0 with monitored note (same opacity as other early-stage tokens).

0 RAIN
checked · May 31 2026
4. Long-term locked or bankruptcy

No bankruptcy estate. No protocol-level long-term lock that is scheduled to unlock outside the vesting curve (Row #2).

0 RAIN
checked · May 31 2026
Buy pressure
1. Programmatic buyback

No discretionary protocol buyback. The 2.5%-of-trading-volume mechanism is captured as Row #2 (buyback then burn — destination matters per §0.45.3.2).

0 RAIN
checked · May 31 2026
2. Protocol fee burn

2.5% of platform trading volume → automatic buyback and burn of RAIN. Cumulative ~69M RAIN burned to date. Trading volume modest in 2026 (~$18M/day reported Feb 2026), so 90D buyback-burn is small (~35M RAIN at recent prices) relative to vesting inflow.

~35M RAIN
checked · May 31 2026
3. Foundation buy

No on-record Foundation accumulation programme.

0 RAIN
checked · May 31 2026
4. New long-term lock

Staking allocation exists but lock-up structure not separately exposed as a long-term lock per framework definition.

0 RAIN
checked · May 31 2026

Get the next coin's research. Free.

One email a week. The new reads, before you buy.

Algorithm check · raw inputs & outputs
 
Last 90D
Next 90D
Sell total (M RAIN)
69000.000
50000.000
Buy total (M RAIN)
35.000
35.000
Sell % of circ
+11.088%
+8.035%
Buy % of circ
+0.006%
+0.006%
Inflation (sell − buy) %
+11.082%
+8.029%
Score (0–6)
0
0
Verdict
avoid
avoid
Circulating supply: 622312.000M RAIN · inflation = (sell − buy) / circulating × 100
See every coin we track
MrNasdog Pressure Framework dashboard — Inflation Monitor across the full catalog.
Free + paid coins · last 90D realised + next 90D projected · live.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of RAIN, Metric 1 (Inflation Monitor). Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated May 31, 2026.