RRAIN · Arbitrum
Inflation analysis
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MrNasdog Pressure Framework

RAIN · the unlock is huge, and it is going into the project's own pockets.

RAIN is the token of Rain, a prediction-market protocol on Arbitrum709,179M circulating against a 1,150,000M ceiling that was minted in full at the start. Supply only falls from here; the question is who is holding it.

Sell pressure. The vesting contract released 93,706M RAIN in 90 days, but every coin landed in wallets the project signs for. Only 295M actually reached the market.

Buy pressure. A voted $23,000,000 buyout destroyed 7,419M RAIN on Aug 25 2026, on top of 59M bought and burned out of trading fees.

Net. About 1.01% taken off the market over 90 days, then 0.03% back on next — the one-off buyout flatters a token with 955,004M sitting behind it.

Inflation
Last 90 Days
-1.01%
updated · Aug 27 2026
Net flow: 1.01% of supply taken off the market over 90 days
Next 90 Days
+0.03%
estimate
Net flow: 0.03% of supply stays in the market (roughly neutral) next 90 days
Supply was shrinking · trend softening
monitor gap · Our monitor reads +13.86% for the same window. The gap is a classification split, and it is exact: the monitor's circulating figure equals total supply minus the vesting escrow at 0x467d5bf8cfa1a5f99328fbdcb9c751c78934b725 minus one project wallet — 622,656M on May 28 2026 against its 622,684M, and 709,179M on Aug 27 2026 against its 708,981M. That leaves five more project multisigs holding 521,773M counted as circulating. On chain those five did not sell; they GAINED 93,706M, exactly what the escrow released. Reading the same window on tradable float only, supply fell 194,590M to 187,406M.
Upcoming · Next 90 Days
  • Distribution wallet keeps paying out~295M sent out
    Aug 27 2026 – Nov 25 2026 · added to market
  • Buy-and-burn continues on trading volume~59M destroyed
    Aug 27 2026 – Nov 25 2026 · removed from market
  • Vesting keeps refilling project wallets~90B to overhang
    Aug 27 2026 – Nov 25 2026 · added to market
Sell pressure
1. Protocol inflation
0

Rain can print RAIN, but it did not. The rule is that whenever RAIN is bought back and destroyed, the team may create new coins worth a tenth of what was destroyed and send them to the Foundation — and that claim has to be made by hand. Walking the supply figure day by day across the whole window, every single day it goes down and never once up. Nothing was created. The switch is still there, which is why this row is watched rather than closed.

updated · Aug 27 2026
2. Vesting unlocks
0

This is the finding that shapes the whole page. The vesting contract really did pay out — 93,706M RAIN left it in 90 days, and on paper that is an enormous release. It went nowhere near the market. Five wallets belonging to the project received it, and the amount they gained is exactly the amount the vesting contract lost, to the token. Those five wallets, plus a sixth, are all signed by the same small group of people. So the coins moved from one pocket of the project into another. Until they leave those wallets they are an overhang, not supply on the market — and that is where they are counted, in the row below.

updated · Aug 27 2026
3. Foundation + unscheduled unlocks
~295M RAIN

One project wallet is doing all the distributing, and it is small. It fell from 8,787M to 8,492M over the window — 295M RAIN sent out — at a steady pace of roughly 100M a month for the last three months, down from about four times that earlier in the year. Everything else the project controls is watched and did not sell: the vesting contract still holds 424,738M, and the five receiving wallets hold 164,824M, 138,903M, 100,470M, 68,135M and 49,442M. Between them that is 955,004M of the 1,142,409M that exists. If any of those balances falls between refreshes, the outflow lands in this row at the next refresh.

updated · Aug 27 2026
4. Long-term locked or bankruptcy
0

There is no bankruptcy estate and no trustee attached to RAIN. The one legacy claim on the token — the refund programme owed to early buyers — was settled and destroyed rather than distributed, and it is counted on the buy side.

checked · Aug 27 2026
Buy pressure
1. Programmatic buyback
~59M RAIN

Every prediction market on Rain sends 2.5% of what trades through it into buying RAIN and destroying it. Over the window that removed 59M RAIN. It is a real destruction, not a parking space: the total supply falls by the same amount, and the address burnt coins go to holds 415 RAIN, so nothing is accumulating anywhere to be sold later. The pace is modest against the size of the token — about half a million coins a day.

updated · Aug 27 2026
2. Protocol fee burn
0

There is no second, separate burn. The fee already pays for the buying-and-destroying counted above, so it is counted once and not twice. Rain runs on Arbitrum and pays that network's fees in ETH, not in RAIN.

checked · Aug 27 2026
3. Foundation buy
~7.42B RAIN

The biggest single event in this window, and it was voted through rather than decided in a back room. Rain's first ever governance vote closed on May 24 2026 and settled the old refund claims; the Foundation then spent $23,000,000 in stablecoins buying those claims out at a fixed $0.0031 per coin and destroyed every one. The chain shows the supply dropping by 7,419M in one step on Aug 25 2026 — about 1% of everything in circulation, gone. It was paid for in cash, it will not repeat, and no further settlement has been announced.

updated · Aug 27 2026
4. New long-term lock
0

Nothing new was locked away. Holding RAIN is what buys access to the markets and a vote in the DAO, but there is no staking contract, no vote-lock and no announced lockup that takes coins out of the tradable pool.

checked · Aug 27 2026

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Supply check · sell, buy & net
 
Last 90D
Next 90D
Sell total (M RAIN)
295.210
295.210
Buy total (M RAIN)
7478.790
59.430
Sell % of circ
+0.042%
+0.042%
Buy % of circ
+1.055%
+0.008%
Net inflation %
-1.013%
+0.033%
Score (0–2)
2.0
1.3
Verdict
favor
mixed
Circulating supply: 709179.200M RAIN
Read the inflation analysis
The full Pressure Framework write-up for RAIN.
Where the unlocked coins actually went, and who can sign for them.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of RAIN, Metric 1 (Inflation Monitor). Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated Aug 27 2026.