RAIN · the unlock is huge, and it is going into the project's own pockets.
RAIN is the token of Rain, a prediction-market protocol on Arbitrum — 709,179M circulating against a 1,150,000M ceiling that was minted in full at the start. Supply only falls from here; the question is who is holding it.
Sell pressure. The vesting contract released 93,706M RAIN in 90 days, but every coin landed in wallets the project signs for. Only 295M actually reached the market.
Buy pressure. A voted $23,000,000 buyout destroyed 7,419M RAIN on Aug 25 2026, on top of 59M bought and burned out of trading fees.
Net. About 1.01% taken off the market over 90 days, then 0.03% back on next — the one-off buyout flatters a token with 955,004M sitting behind it.
- Distribution wallet keeps paying out~295M sent outAug 27 2026 – Nov 25 2026 · added to market
- Buy-and-burn continues on trading volume~59M destroyedAug 27 2026 – Nov 25 2026 · removed from market
- Vesting keeps refilling project wallets~90B to overhangAug 27 2026 – Nov 25 2026 · added to market
Rain can print RAIN, but it did not. The rule is that whenever RAIN is bought back and destroyed, the team may create new coins worth a tenth of what was destroyed and send them to the Foundation — and that claim has to be made by hand. Walking the supply figure day by day across the whole window, every single day it goes down and never once up. Nothing was created. The switch is still there, which is why this row is watched rather than closed.
This is the finding that shapes the whole page. The vesting contract really did pay out — 93,706M RAIN left it in 90 days, and on paper that is an enormous release. It went nowhere near the market. Five wallets belonging to the project received it, and the amount they gained is exactly the amount the vesting contract lost, to the token. Those five wallets, plus a sixth, are all signed by the same small group of people. So the coins moved from one pocket of the project into another. Until they leave those wallets they are an overhang, not supply on the market — and that is where they are counted, in the row below.
One project wallet is doing all the distributing, and it is small. It fell from 8,787M to 8,492M over the window — 295M RAIN sent out — at a steady pace of roughly 100M a month for the last three months, down from about four times that earlier in the year. Everything else the project controls is watched and did not sell: the vesting contract still holds 424,738M, and the five receiving wallets hold 164,824M, 138,903M, 100,470M, 68,135M and 49,442M. Between them that is 955,004M of the 1,142,409M that exists. If any of those balances falls between refreshes, the outflow lands in this row at the next refresh.
There is no bankruptcy estate and no trustee attached to RAIN. The one legacy claim on the token — the refund programme owed to early buyers — was settled and destroyed rather than distributed, and it is counted on the buy side.
Every prediction market on Rain sends 2.5% of what trades through it into buying RAIN and destroying it. Over the window that removed 59M RAIN. It is a real destruction, not a parking space: the total supply falls by the same amount, and the address burnt coins go to holds 415 RAIN, so nothing is accumulating anywhere to be sold later. The pace is modest against the size of the token — about half a million coins a day.
There is no second, separate burn. The fee already pays for the buying-and-destroying counted above, so it is counted once and not twice. Rain runs on Arbitrum and pays that network's fees in ETH, not in RAIN.
The biggest single event in this window, and it was voted through rather than decided in a back room. Rain's first ever governance vote closed on May 24 2026 and settled the old refund claims; the Foundation then spent $23,000,000 in stablecoins buying those claims out at a fixed $0.0031 per coin and destroyed every one. The chain shows the supply dropping by 7,419M in one step on Aug 25 2026 — about 1% of everything in circulation, gone. It was paid for in cash, it will not repeat, and no further settlement has been announced.
Nothing new was locked away. Holding RAIN is what buys access to the markets and a vote in the DAO, but there is no staking contract, no vote-lock and no announced lockup that takes coins out of the tradable pool.
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