RAIN · nothing is minted, and the lockup still adds 12% of the float in a quarter.
RAIN is the governance token of Rain Protocol, a prediction-market protocol on Arbitrum — 709,230M circulating of 1,142,409M in existence.
Sell pressure. Not one new coin. But the lockup released 93,706M RAIN into project wallets and presale buyers claimed 311.0M — 94,017M over 90 days.
Buy pressure. A DAO-voted buyback burned 7,419M; fee buybacks burned 27.6M, then nearly stopped.
Net. About 12.21% goes to market over 90 days and 10.02% next.
No new RAIN was created. The token does carry a mint switch: the owner can create 10% of whatever was burned since the last use, paid to the treasury. It has never been used, so no coin has been minted since launch, and the supply fell by exactly the amount burned. About 759.1M RAIN could be minted in one call today. Watched, not closed.
This is the whole supply story. The lockup contract released 93,706M RAIN over 90 days, and presale buyers claimed another 311.0M. Every lockup coin went to four of the project's own wallets, which have sent almost none of it on yet, but once out of the lock it is tradable. The lockup still holds 424,738M and releases about 70,778M more next 90 days, plus 309.6M of presale claims.
Nothing extra is counted here: coins already released in row 2 are not counted again when project wallets pay them out (445.2M this window, 26.1M straight to an exchange). Watched as overhang: four project wallets hold 421,304M RAIN, a strategic-sale wallet 100,470M, the presale wallet 8,440.7M and a liquidity wallet 5,350M. A listed company holds an option to buy 271,372M RAIN from the Foundation at $0.0033 until Dec 31 2027.
There is no bankruptcy estate, trustee or court-ordered distribution attached to RAIN. Nothing sits in this row.
Prediction-market fees buy RAIN on the open market and burn it in the same step. That removed 27.6M RAIN over 90 days, mostly in July. Since the new trading version replaced the old one on Aug 27 2026, burns have almost stopped: 0.056M in 19 days, about 0.26M a quarter at that pace. Every bought coin is destroyed, none is parked.
The fee burn is the buyback in row 1, counted once. Both burn surfaces were read at both ends: the supply fell by exactly the coins sent to the zero address, and the dead address took in only 414 RAIN of dust.
After the first DAO vote, the Foundation paid $23M in cash at $0.0031 for Credit Refund coins and burned 7,419M RAIN on Aug 25 2026. The count of RAIN in existence fell by the same amount. It was a one-off settlement with no follow-up planned, so nothing is expected next 90 days.
Nothing new was locked. The lockup contract took in no RAIN over the window, and there is no staking lock that removes RAIN from trading.