STABLE Inflation Analysis · October 2026 · Mixed flows · supply roughly steady

STABLE supply is flat: 0.00% over the last 90 days and 0.00% projected for the next 90. All 100B STABLE were created in one go on Dec 8 2025, no new coins can be minted, and the team, investor and Foundation lock wallets sent out 0 STABLE in the window. Since Oct 5 2026 the Universal Lock holds all 82B locked coins until Dec 8 2027, so the real risk for Stable is the release from 2027 to 2029, not anything in the next 90 days.

The verdict, in one paragraph

Over the 90 days to Oct 5 2026 the MrNasdog Pressure Framework reads STABLE at 0.00% net supply change: 0 STABLE of sell pressure against 0 STABLE of buy pressure, on a circulating base of 26.93B STABLE. The next 90 days also read 0.00%. The monitor's supply figure rose 11.06% over the same window, a gap of 11.06 percentage points, so the page carries a ⚠ monitor gap chip. The gap has one clear cause: the public supply figure keeps adding about 889M STABLE a month on the old Foundation release plan, while on-chain not one STABLE left the lock wallets. STABLE today is a quiet, fixed-supply token with a large, dated unlock wall that starts in late 2027.

Sell pressure: where new STABLE comes from

Protocol inflation is 0. Stable issued its full 100,000,000,000 STABLE at launch on Dec 8 2025, and total supply on the Stable chain still reads exactly 100B at both ends of the window. The STABLE token refuses new mints outright: a test mint returns "minting governance token is not allowed". Validators and stakers on the Stable network are paid from gas fees, and those fees are paid in USDT0, so staking adds no new STABLE.

Vesting unlocks are 0released. Under the original plan the Stable Foundation's ecosystem pool vested 888.89M STABLE a month on the 8th, so three tranches worth 2.67B STABLE were due on Jul 8, Aug 8 and Sep 8 2026. None of them left a lock. The team wallet (25B), the investor wallet (25B) and the Foundation locked wallet (21B) held exactly the same balance on Jul 7 2026 and Oct 5 2026. On Oct 5 2026 the Universal Lock from Stable's August whitepaper took over: the old one-year cliff for team and investors (due Dec 8 2026) and the monthly Foundation drip are gone, and nothing in the 82B locked pool can release before Dec 8 2027.

Foundation and unscheduled unlocks are 0: no locked wallet paid out in the window, and the Foundation's day-one wallet of 7.54B STABLE, which already counts as circulating, did not move either. Long-term locked or bankruptcy supply is 0: no estate or trustee holds STABLE, and the one long lock, the Universal Lock, has its first release on Dec 8 2027.

Buy pressure: where new STABLE goes

Every buy row is also 0. There is no programmatic buyback: Stable collects gas fees in USDT0 into a treasury that validators may share with stakers, and none of it is spent buying STABLE. There is no fee burn either: because gas is paid in USDT0, no STABLE is destroyed, total supply is unchanged at 100B, and the two burn addresses hold 0 STABLE at both ends of the window. No Foundation buying of STABLE shows up in announcements or on-chain.

The new long-term lock row is 0, even though the Universal Lock is new. It relocks about 8.9B STABLE of Foundation coins that public supply counts treat as circulating, but those coins never left the lock wallets, so locking them again takes nothing off the market. Staked STABLE, 11.0B across 11 validators, is already part of the locked total.

Foundation and overhang

Stable has four large team-controlled piles, all covered by the Universal Lock. The Stable Foundation's locked ecosystem wallet holds 21B STABLE. The team and the investors and advisors hold 25B STABLE each in two lock wallets. The 11% validator allocation, about 11.0B STABLE, is staked with 11 validators at about 1.0B each; one of them was jailed on Oct 5 2026, and its 1.0B STABLEfinishes unbonding on Oct 12 2026 while staying in the locked pool. Outside the lock, the Foundation's day-one wallet holds 7.54B STABLE for campaigns and partners, and that pile already counts as circulating.

From Dec 8 2027 the 82B locked pool releases in seven floors: 4.1B, 4.1B, 8.2B, 12.3B, 12.3B, 16.4B and 24.6B STABLE, each dripping out a little every day for about six months, with the last coins free on Dec 8 2029. A floor waits three months, up to nine, if the 30-day average price is below $0.025 the day before it starts. We re-read every one of these wallets at each rebuild: if any of their balances falls between refreshes, the outflow enters the Foundation and unscheduled unlocks row at the next refresh.

How STABLE compares to other payment-focused Layer 1 chains

Most proof-of-stake Layer 1 chains pay validators in newly minted coins, so their supply grows every day whether or not anyone unlocks anything. STABLE works the other way: its gas token is USDT0, its stakers are paid in dollars from fees, and its own supply is fixed at 100B. That puts STABLE closer to fixed-supply governance tokens than to uncapped staking coins, with zero issuance and zero burn.

Against other stablecoin-payment chains, the difference is in the unlock design rather than the emission. Many young chains release team and investor coins with a one-year cliff and then monthly tranches, which puts steady new supply on the market from the first anniversary. Stable replaced that with one pooled lock for team, investors and the Foundation alike, a later start on Dec 8 2027, and a price safety floor. The trade-off is size: 82% of all STABLE still waits behind that date, so the release from 2027 to 2029 will be much larger than anything the token has seen so far.

What to watch in the next 90 days

Oct 8 2026: unlock trackers still list an 888.89M STABLE Foundation tranche on this date under the old plan; under the Universal Lock nothing should move, and we will check the lock wallets.

Oct 12 2026: the jailed validator's 1.0B STABLE finishes unbonding; if it is then withdrawn and leaves the locked pool, it would enter the ledger at the next refresh.

The public circulating figure: it counts 26.93B STABLE, about 8.9B more than the 18B that has left the lock wallets, and it may be cut back now that the Universal Lock is live.

Dec 8 2026: the date of the old team and investor cliff, now cancelled; any transfer out of the two 25B wallets around it would be a change of plan.

Summary

STABLE, the staking and governance token of the Stable payments chain, reads 0.00%net supply change for the last 90 days and the next 90 days in the MrNasdog Pressure Framework. Its 100B supply is fixed and fully minted, fees are paid in USDT0, and no STABLE is minted, burned or bought back. The key risk is the Universal Lock's 82B release, which starts on Dec 8 2027 and runs to Dec 8 2029. Until then, the only new STABLE that can reach the market would have to come from a change of plan by the Foundation, the team or the investors.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of STABLE, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Checked Oct 5 2026.