TTON · Toncoin
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MrNasdog Pressure Framework

TON · three sell rows compounding — Catchain ramp, Believers Fund, Telegram team-vest.

Last 90 days released ~110M TON from the Believers Fund locker plus ~10M of Telegram team-vest plus ~43M of validator emission on the post-Catchain ramp. Native fee burn took back only ~0.1M. Net +6.05% / 90D — primary kept despite the monitor reading +9.27% (residual ~3pp untraceable to a verified flow).

Inflation
Last 90 Days
+6.05%
updated · Jun 4 2026
Net flow: 6.05% of supply goes to market over 90 days
Next 90 Days
+6.23%
estimate
Net flow: 6.23% of supply goes to market next 90 days
Supply growing · projected to keep growing
monitor gap · primary +6.05% kept; monitor reads +9.27% — residual ~3pp not traceable to a verified on-chain flow.
Sell pressure
1. Protocol inflation

Validator block subsidy: 1.7 TON masterchain + 1.0 TON basechain. Catchain 2.0 (April 10, 2026) cut block time 2.5s → 400ms; post-Catchain annualised yield runs ~16.7% on ~612M staked. Full-window post-Catchain projection ≈ 48M / 90D.

~48M TON
updated · Jun 4 2026
2. Vesting unlocks

Believers Fund locker (`believers.ton`) unlocks ~36.59M TON monthly through Oct 2028. Three cliffs land per 90D window (Jun 9 / Jul 9 / Aug 9 next quarter). Plus Telegram team/partner vest ~3.45M/month × 3 ≈ 10M (1,440-day linear + 360-day cliff). ~1.28B Believers + ~21M Telegram still vesting.

~120M TON
updated · Jun 4 2026
3. Foundation + unscheduled unlocks

No public evidence of release in window — monitored. §0.45.3.4 enumeration: TON Foundation (Switzerland) + Kingsway Capital-led $420.69M PIPE treasury (Apr 2026); no published wallet registry, trailing 90D on-chain outflows ≈ 0 visible. Telegram-as-validator takeover (May 4, 2026) created additional custody-flip uncertainty.

0 TON
checked · May 30 2026
4. Long-term locked or bankruptcy

No bankruptcy estate. 1.08B TON in 171 dormant miner wallets is frozen until February 21, 2027 — outside the next-90D window but will dominate the Q4 2026 / Q1 2027 refresh.

0 TON
checked · May 30 2026
Buy pressure
1. Programmatic buyback

No programmatic buyback.

0 TON
permanent · no change
2. Protocol fee burn

50% of transaction + storage fees burned at the protocol level. Post-May-1 2026 base fee cut (6× to 0.00039 TON) halved the burn pace to ~0.05M / 90D until transaction volume grows to compensate.

~0.05M TON
updated · Jun 4 2026
3. Foundation buy

Foundation is a net distributor (Sell #3 watching), not a market buyer.

0 TON
permanent · no change
4. New long-term lock

Believers Fund is in release phase (winding down, not adding lock). No new long-term lockup programme.

0 TON
permanent · no change

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Algorithm check · raw inputs & outputs
 
Last 90D
Next 90D
Sell total (M TON)
163.200
168.000
Buy total (M TON)
0.100
0.050
Sell % of circ
+6.053%
+6.231%
Buy % of circ
+0.004%
+0.002%
Inflation (sell − buy) %
+6.050%
+6.230%
Score (0–6)
0
0
Verdict
avoid
avoid
Circulating supply: 2696.000M TON · inflation = (sell − buy) / circulating × 100
Read the full Pressure Framework analysis
TON: Believers Fund monthly unlock is the load-bearing sell row.
Long-form Metric 1 + 2 read. Origin-first from TonStat + believers.ton + TON Foundation. ~5 min.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of TON, Metrics 1 & 2. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated May 27, 2026.