VVV Inflation Analysis · October 2026 · Supply growing · projected to keep growing

The MrNasdog Pressure Framework reads Venice Token (VVV) as inflationary: circulating supply grew +3.06% over the last 90 days and is projected to grow +3.45% over the next 90. New VVV reached the market from team vesting (1,190,620 VVV), staking emission (654,946 VVV) and company-wallet payouts (95,522 VVV), while Venice's revenue-funded buy-and-burn destroyed 131,150 VVV and the company pulled 328,375 VVV back into its own wallets. The monitor reads +2.35%; the gap comes from a recount in the monitor's own supply figure, not from a missed flow. VVV has no supply cap, and the burns are still far smaller than what vesting and emission add.

The verdict, in one paragraph

Over the 90 days to Oct 4 2026 the framework reads VVV at +3.06% net: 1.94M VVV of sell pressure against 0.46M VVV of buy pressure on a circulating base of 48.34M VVV. The next 90 days project +3.45%: 1.74M VVV in and 73,717 VVV burned. The inflation monitor reads +2.35%, a gap of −0.71 percentage points, which is over our 0.5-point line, so the page carries a ⚠ monitor-gap note. The deep walk found the cause: the monitor's supply figure ran about 320,000 VVV above the on-chain float every day until Aug 16 2026, then fell 309,171 VVV on Aug 17 2026 when a vesting contract holding 319,458 VVV was added to its locked list. Measured on-chain over the monitor's own window, the float grew +3.10%. VVV is inflationary by vesting: a revenue-burn token whose team unlocks still outrun the burn.

Sell pressure: where new VVV comes from

Protocol inflation added 654,946 VVV. The VVV staking contract mints new coins every second and pays them to stakers. Venice has cut that emission again and again: it ran at 3M VVV a year until Sep 1 2026, then 2.5M, and since Oct 1 2026 it is 2M a year, about 86% below the 14M a year at the January 2025 launch. In the window 690,661 VVV was minted; 35,715 of it went to the Venice treasury wallet, which the market does not count, so 654,946 VVV entered circulation. At the new 2M pace the next 90 days add about 467,649 VVV.

Vesting unlocks are the largest source, at 1,190,620 VVV. Team and contributor VVV sits in two vesting contracts that release coins second by second. The main one holds 15 team streams, three of them cancelled, running from Jul 27 2025 to Jan 27 2027; holders withdrew 1,148,666 VVV from it in these 90 days. A second contract with newer contributor grants released 41,954 VVV. The scheduled release for the next 90 days is 1,192,671 VVV, almost the same pace, because the main team vesting keeps running at full speed until late January 2027.

Foundation and unscheduled releases added 95,522 VVV. The Venice treasury sends about 26,400 VVV a month to the wallet that pays contributors (28,622 on Aug 2, 24,970 on Aug 31 and 25,546 on Sep 29 2026). A reserve wallet sent 9,134 VVV to a custody address in mid-September, and the liquidity wallet paid 7,250 VVV in weekly pool rewards. The monthly treasury payments project to 81,901 VVV over the next 90 days with the smaller weekly rewards. Long-term locked or bankruptcy supply is zero: no estate or trustee holds VVV, and the funding-round coins stay locked until about July 2027.

Buy pressure: where new VVV goes

The programmatic buyback destroyed 131,150 VVV. Venice uses revenue to buy VVV on the open market and send it to a burn address. Two routes run side by side. The automatic route fires on each new subscription ($2, $5 or $10 by tier) and, since Jul 17 2026, on API credit sales at $5 per $100; it burned 64,246 VVV. A monthly batch from a separate buyback wallet burned 23,178 VVV on Jul 9, 27,163 on Aug 7 and 16,563 on Sep 8 2026. Every burn is visible on-chain, and the burn address now holds 33.89M VVV in total, mostly from the unclaimed airdrop burned in March 2025.

The burns are set in dollars, not in coins. The automatic route spent about $13,000 a day after the July change and the monthly batches about $293,000 each. Because VVV more than doubled in price during the window, the same spending at today's $27.88 buys fewer coins: the framework projects 73,717 VVV burned in the next 90 days, about 44% less than the last 90.

There is no protocol fee burn; every destroyed VVV was bought with company revenue. A foundation buy of 19,308 VVV came from the liquidity wallet buying on the open market on Jul 6–7 2026 and keeping the coins, with no buying since. New long-term locks are zero: about 33.2M VVV is staked and part of it is locked to mint DIEM, Venice's compute token, but staked VVV still counts as circulating. Finally, 309,067 VVV moved into company wallets: Venice unstaked 275,001 VVV of its own coins and parked them in its reserve on Jul 28 and Aug 13 2026, and the liquidity wallet collected 34,066 VVV of pool fees on Sep 3. Both are one-off moves, so the next 90 days count zero for them.

Foundation and overhang

Five wallets outside the circulating count hold 32.75M VVV, and together they match the gap between total and circulating supply to within about 400 VVV. The main Venice treasury holds 20.74M VVV; it receives about 5% of every new emission and pays roughly 26,400 VVV a month to contributors. A second reserve wallet, the original incentive fund, holds 8.63M VVV and grew this window because Venice parked coins there. The liquidity wallet holds 1.57M VVV. The two vesting contracts hold 1.81M VVV, of which about 61,400 is already vested but not yet claimed.

One more overhang is promised but not yet visible: investors in the $65 million Series A of July 2026 get a 1.5M VVV grant, locked for one year and then paid out over three years, plus warrants to buy another 5M VVV. The wallet that will fund them has not been named. We read every one of these wallets on-chain at each rebuild. If any wallet's balance falls between refreshes, the outflow enters Sell #3 at the next refresh, and the buyback wallet is watched the same way.

How VVV compares to other revenue-burn AI tokens

VVV belongs to a small group of app tokens whose company turns real revenue into token burns. Compared with exchange tokens that burn a fixed share of profit each quarter, Venice's burn is smaller relative to its supply but runs continuously, with an automatic route tied to each subscription and credit sale. The key difference is the supply side: exchange-style burn tokens usually have a fixed cap and no team vesting left, while VVV still has an uncapped staking emission and a live team vesting contract releasing about 13,000 VVV a day.

Against AI and compute tokens that pay network operators in new coins, VVV's emission is now modest: 2M VVV a year is about 4% of circulating supply, and Venice has cut it several times since launch. What keeps VVV inflationary today is vesting, not emission. Once the main team vesting ends on Jan 27 2027, the sell side drops to about 0.6M VVV a quarter, and the reading could turn far tighter.

VVV is also unusual in how much supply sits in company hands. Its DIEM design locks staked VVV to create a compute token, but those coins stay in the circulating count, so DIEM demand tightens the tradable float only in practice, not on paper. The burns, by contrast, remove coins for good.

What to watch in the next 90 days

Monthly buyback burn, around Oct 8 2026: the batch burns have landed between the 7th and the 9th of each month; a larger batch would lift the buy side.

Treasury payout, around Oct 29 2026: the monthly contributor payment of about 26,400 VVV; a larger transfer out of the treasury would raise Sell #3.

Further emission cuts: Venice has cut emission on May 1, Jun 1, Jul 1, Sep 1 and Oct 1 2026; another announced cut would lower Sell #1 for the rest of the window.

Team vesting end, Jan 27 2027: just after this window the main vesting contract finishes, removing the largest sell row.

Reserve wallet moves: any outflow from the 8.63M VVV reserve or a first payment toward the Series A grant would show up at the next refresh.

Summary

Venice Token (VVV) is inflationary on the MrNasdog Pressure Framework: +3.06% net over the last 90 days and +3.45% projected over the next 90. Team vesting of about 1.19M VVV a quarter and a 2M-a-year staking emission outweigh a revenue-funded buy-and-burn that destroyed 131,150 VVV and buys fewer coins as the price rises. The key risk is the 30.95M VVV in company wallets that the market does not count, plus a 1.5M VVV investor grant from mid-2027. The ceiling on the vesting pressure is near: the main team vesting ends on Jan 27 2027, after which VVV's supply growth should slow sharply.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of VVV, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Checked Oct 4 2026.