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MrNasdog Pressure Framework

XPL · a chain that mints nothing, and unlocks everything.

XPL is the native asset of Plasma, a stablecoin-payments layer-1 launched Sep 2025 — 10B created at genesis, ~2.78B trading, so roughly 72% is still locked. Staking rewards were designed but never switched on.

Sell pressure. Monthly tranches of 88.9M put 266.7M on the market in 90 days, and the ecosystem wallet sent a further 192.5M into exchange deposit rails in late Aug 2026.

Buy pressure. Nothing at all — no buyback, no staking contract to lock into, and a fee burn that destroys about 0.04 XPL a quarter.

Inflation
Last 90 Days
+16.53%
updated · Sep 2 2026
Net flow: 16.53% of supply goes to market over 90 days
Next 90 Days
+82.01%
estimate
Net flow: 82.01% of supply goes to market next 90 days
Supply growing · projected to keep growing
monitor gap · The counted-supply series was re-based down by about one monthly tranche on Jun 11 2026, inside the monitor's own 90-day base, so the monitor reads +5.35% where the calendar delivered three full tranches of 88.9M on Jun 25, Jul 25 and Aug 25 2026. The framework also books 192.5M that the counted series never sees: the ecosystem wallet 0xF97Ba376…8558 fell 582,648,168 XPL across the window and 0x9374437B…970F forwarded 183M of it into exchange deposit rails on Aug 23 and Aug 27 2026.
Upcoming · Next 90 Days
  • Team + investor one-year cliff+1,666.7M XPL
    Sep 25 2026 · one-third of both 25% allocations unlock on the same day
  • Monthly ecosystem tranche+88.9M XPL
    Sep 25 2026 · the 12th of 36 scheduled monthly releases
  • First post-cliff insider month + ecosystem tranche+227.8M XPL
    Oct 25 2026 · 138.9M team and investor, 88.9M ecosystem
  • Second post-cliff insider month + ecosystem tranche+227.8M XPL
    Nov 25 2026 · 138.9M team and investor, 88.9M ecosystem
Sell pressure
1. Protocol inflation
0

Plasma mints nothing today. Validator rewards are designed to start at 5% a year and fall to 3%, but they switch on only when outside validators and delegated staking go live, and the operator docs still say consensus access has no date. A chain read settles it: the fee account gained exactly the tips users paid and not one unit more.

checked · Sep 2 2026
2. Vesting unlocks
~266.7M XPL

The ecosystem allocation releases 88.9M XPL on the 25th of every month until Sep 2028. Jun 25, Jul 25 and Aug 25 2026 all landed inside the window. The calendar is also the whole circulating figure: 1.8B at launch plus eleven monthly tranches reproduces the counted supply to the unit.

updated · Sep 2 2026
3. Foundation + unscheduled unlocks
~192.5M XPL

The ecosystem wallet sent 250M XPL to a fresh address on Aug 21 2026, and on Aug 23 and Aug 27 2026 that address pushed 183M into four exchange deposit rails — the same four it used to seed the market at launch. A further 9.5M was routed out and dispersed on Jul 31 2026. Tracked and still held: 2.25B in the ecosystem wallet, 2.5B in an untouched insider wallet, 1.48B and 555.6M and 191.7M in three dormant wallets, 148.1M parked since Jul 2026, and 67M left mid-deployment. The US public-sale tranche also came free on Jul 28 2026 with no disclosed size.

updated · Sep 2 2026
4. Long-term locked or bankruptcy
0

No public evidence of release in window — monitored. Plasma launched in Sep 2025 with no bankruptcy estate, no trustee schedule and no court-supervised distribution attached to any part of its supply.

checked · Sep 2 2026
5. One-year team and investor cliff
0

Nothing fired in the last 90 days, and then everything does. One-third of the 2.5B team allocation and one-third of the 2.5B investor allocation come free on the same day, Sep 25 2026 — 1,666.7M XPL, about 60% of everything trading. The monthly tail starts on Oct 25 2026 at 138.9M, so the next 90 days carry 1,944.4M from this row alone.

checked · Sep 2 2026
Buy pressure
1. Programmatic buyback
0

There is no buyback. Plasma has never announced or funded one, a buyback tracker returns no data for the token, and neither treasury wallet received an inbound transfer across the window.

checked · Sep 2 2026
2. Protocol fee burn
0

The burn exists and destroys nothing. Plasma burns the base fee the way Ethereum does, but the base fee sits at its floor of 8 wei because stablecoin transfers are gas-sponsored, so 31 blocks sampled across the window imply about 0.04 XPL destroyed in 90 days. The two unspendable addresses took 22.5K XPL of mis-sends over the same period.

updated · Sep 2 2026
3. Foundation buy
0

No public evidence of release in window — monitored. Every traced treasury movement in this window was outbound; not one identified Plasma wallet bought XPL back.

checked · Sep 2 2026
4. New long-term lock
0

There is nothing to lock into. Delegated staking has not shipped, so no contract exists that would hold XPL off the tradable float, and locked team and investor coins earn nothing while they wait.

checked · Sep 2 2026

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Supply check · sell, buy & net
 
Last 90D
Next 90D
Sell total (M XPL)
459.167
2278.111
Buy total (M XPL)
0.000
0.000
Sell % of circ
+16.530%
+82.012%
Buy % of circ
0.000%
0.000%
Net inflation %
+16.530%
+82.012%
Score (0–2)
0.0
0.0
Verdict
avoid
avoid
Circulating supply: 2777.778M XPL
Read the inflation analysis
The full Pressure Framework write-up for XPL.
Why a chain with zero issuance still faces the heaviest forward supply in the catalog.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of XPL, Metric 1 (Inflation Monitor). Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated Sep 2, 2026.