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MrNasdog Pressure Framework

XPL · a one-year cliff lands in the next 90 days.

XPL is the native token of Plasma, a stablecoin-focused layer-1 — ~2.69B circulating out of a 10B total, so roughly 73% of supply is still locked and vesting into 2028.

Sell pressure. Ecosystem tokens release at about 64M a month, but the story is the cliff: on Sep 25 2026 the one-year team and investor lock opens about 1,665M XPL at once. That lands inside the next 90 days, pushing forward supply to about 1,996M.

Buy pressure. Effectively none — no buyback, and the fee burn is immaterial because stablecoin transfers on Plasma are gas-free.

Net. About +74% to market over the next 90 days — a large, front-loaded jump driven almost entirely by the September cliff.

Inflation
Last 90 Days
+7.16%
updated · Aug 3 2026
Net flow: 7.16% of supply goes to market over 90 days
Next 90 Days
+74.25%
estimate
Net flow: 74.25% of supply goes to market next 90 days
Supply growing · projected to keep growing
Upcoming · Next 90 Days
  • Ecosystem monthly unlock+~64M XPL
    Aug 25 2026 · adds to the float
  • Team + investor cliff+~1,665M XPL
    Sep 25 2026 · one-year cliff unlocks at once
  • Monthly vesting + ecosystem+~203M XPL
    Oct 25 2026 · adds to the float
Sell pressure
1. Protocol inflation
0

Plasma's validator staking reward is designed to start at 5% a year and ease toward 3%, but it is not switched on yet — external validators and stake delegation are not live, so no new XPL is minted and total supply is still the fixed 10B. The Foundation has signalled activation is coming; until it fires this row stays at zero and is monitored.

checked · Aug 3 2026
2. Vesting unlocks
~192.5M XPL

Previously-locked XPL is released on a published calendar. Over the last 90 days only the Ecosystem and Growth stream was active — about 64M XPL a month, roughly 192.5M in total. The far bigger event is ahead: on Sep 25 2026 the one-year team and investor cliff releases about 1,665M XPL at once (one-third of each 2.5B allocation), and monthly team and investor vesting then begins. That cliff sits inside the next 90 days, so the forward figure jumps to about 1,996M.

checked · Aug 3 2026
3. Foundation + unscheduled unlocks
0

About 7.3B XPL sits outside the float across team-controlled multisig wallets — the Team allocation (2.5B), the Investor allocation (2.5B) and the remaining Ecosystem and Growth reserve (~2.2B). All of it releases on the published calendar already counted above; no separate off-schedule distribution was observed. No public evidence of release in window — monitored.

checked · Aug 3 2026
4. Long-term locked or bankruptcy
0

Plasma is a live project with no bankruptcy estate and no trustee distribution — this row is empty.

permanent · no change
Buy pressure
1. Programmatic buyback
0

Plasma runs no buyback. No protocol contract or Foundation programme repurchases XPL. No public evidence of buying in window — monitored.

checked · Aug 3 2026
2. Protocol fee burn
0

Plasma has an EIP-1559-style base-fee burn in its design, but its core product is zero-fee stablecoin transfers with gas sponsored by a paymaster, so almost no base fee is paid and the amount of XPL burned is immaterial.

checked · Aug 3 2026
3. Foundation buy
0

The Plasma Foundation discloses no open-market XPL accumulation programme. No public evidence of buying in window — monitored.

checked · Aug 3 2026
4. New long-term lock
0

Validator staking and delegation — the mechanism that could lock XPL away as a supply sink — is not yet live, so nothing new was locked in the window.

checked · Aug 3 2026

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Supply check · sell, buy & net
 
Last 90D
Next 90D
Sell total (M XPL)
192.500
1996.400
Buy total (M XPL)
0.000
0.000
Sell % of circ
+7.159%
+74.246%
Buy % of circ
0.000%
0.000%
Net inflation %
+7.159%
+74.246%
Score (0–2)
0.0
0.0
Verdict
avoid
avoid
Circulating supply: 2688.890M XPL
Read the inflation analysis
The full Pressure Framework write-up for XPL.
Where new supply comes from, and why the September cliff dominates.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of XPL, Metric 1 (Inflation Monitor). Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated Aug 3 2026.