MrNasdog
ZZEC · Zcash
ZEC overview
MrNasdog Pressure Framework · full analysis

Zcash (ZEC) — how much ZEC moves to market in the next 90 days?

BTC's 21M-cap halving template, with a twist: 12% of every block subsidy is minted into a protocol Lockbox that can't be spent until a future ZIP authorizes it. Same flavor as TAO's dTAO absorption: gross emission is higher than what hits the spot market.

Setup

Zcash launched October 2016 with a 21M ZEC hard cap and a BTC-style halving schedule. The Blossom upgrade (Dec 2019) halved block time to 75 seconds (was 150s), with a compensating per-block reward halving to keep the emission curve unchanged. The second halving (NU6, Nov 2024) cut the per-block reward to 1.5625 ZECand activated ZIP-1015's new fund split. Read directly from the ZIPs:

  • Block reward (current cycle): 1.5625 ZEC/block (ZIP-0208 formula: 12.5 / (2 × 2²))
  • Block time: 75s (post-Blossom) → 1,152 blocks/day → 162,000 ZEC / 90d gross
  • Current block: 3,355,706 · circulating ~16.69M ZEC (79.5% of 21M cap mined)
  • Next halving: block 4,406,400 → 1,050,694 blocks out (~30.4 months ≈ Nov 2028) → 0.78125 ZEC/block
  • ZIP-1015 fund split (active Nov 2024+): 80% miners · 12% Deferred Dev Fund Lockbox · 8% FPF Community Grants

The framework asks one structural question for any coin:

Net 90d % = (sell total − buy total) / circulating × 100

Part 1 · Sell pressureto market

Last 90 days · sell total
~142.6K ZEC
0.85% of circulating
Next 90 days · sell projected
~142.6K ZEC
~0.85% of circulating
SOURCE #1Protocol inflation (miners' 80%)
Last 90 days
~129.6K ZEC
Deterministic math: 1.5625 ZEC/block × 1,152/day × 90 = 162,000 gross emission; 80% per ZIP-1015 routes to PoW miners = 129,600 ZEC. Most coinbase sold to cover energy + hardware (PoW literature).
Next 90 days
~129.6K ZEC
Same rate. Third halving (Nov 2028) cuts the row in half — outside the 90d window.
SOURCE #2Vesting unlocks
Last 90 days
0
Zcash's original Founders' Reward was 20% of the block subsidy from genesis through the FIRST halving only (Oct 2016 → Nov 2020). Fully sunset at block 1,046,400. No team / investor vesting today.
Next 90 days
0
Same — no schedule active.
SOURCE #3FPF Community Grants (8% per ZIP-1015)
Last 90 days
~13.0K ZEC
8% of block subsidy = ~12,960 ZEC / 90d minted to the Financial Privacy Foundation for Zcash Community Grants. FPF disburses to independent teams advancing usability / security / privacy / adoption. Protocol-enforced mint side; community-grant spend side.
Next 90 days
~13.0K ZEC
Same rate. FPF allocations are continuous; quarterly grant disbursements roughly match the inflow.
Is this rule-based? Mint side yes (ZIP-1015 protocol- enforced 8%). Spend side discretionary (FPF picks grantees). For the framework, the relevant fact is that the ZEC enters circulating supply each block — tag fixed for the mint mechanism.
SOURCE #4Long-term locked or bankruptcy
Last 90 days
0
No ZEC bankruptcy estate. No team / investor lockup pool waiting to release.
Next 90 days
0
Same.

Part 2 · Buy pressureoff market

Last 90 days · buy total
~19.4K ZEC
0.12% of circulating
Next 90 days · buy projected
~19.4K ZEC
~0.12% of circulating
SOURCE #1Programmatic buyback
Last 90 days
0
PoW chain, no protocol-revenue mechanism. Miners receive coinbase + fees; no portion routes back to buy ZEC.
Next 90 days
0
Same.
SOURCE #2Burn mechanism
Last 90 days
0
No EIP-1559-style base-fee burn in Zcash. Fees flow to miners as part of the coinbase.
Next 90 days
0
Same.
SOURCE #3Foundation / DAO buy
Last 90 days
0
ECC + Zcash Foundation + FPF are recipients of the protocol Dev Fund (past) / FPF Grants (current) — they are funded BY ZEC emission, not buyers. No market-buy programme.
Next 90 days
0
Same expectation.
SOURCE #4Deferred Dev Fund Lockbox (12% per ZIP-1015)
Last 90 days
~19.4K ZEC
12% of block subsidy = ~19,440 ZEC / 90d minted into the on-chain Deferred Dev Fund Lockbox. The lockbox has NO disbursement mechanism yet — ZIP-1015 explicitly defers the "exact method for disbursing accumulated funds from the lockbox" to future governance. Until a successor ZIP authorizes withdrawal, these tokens are functionally locked from the spot market.
Next 90 days
~19.4K ZEC
Same rate. A future ZIP could change this — if disbursement is authorized, the freshly-released balance hits market and converts to a Sell-side event.
Is this rule-based? Yes — ZIP-1015 protocol-enforces the 12% mint into the lockbox. Tag: fixed. From the framework's perspective, this is the same shape as TAO's dTAO absorption: gross emission is higher than market-accessible emission.

Net result

Plug the totals back into the formula:

Last 90 days = (142.6K − 19.4K) / 16688K × 100 = +0.74% to market
Next 90 days = (142.6K − 19.4K) / 16688K × 100 = +0.74% to market

The structural read for ZEC is BTC-style emission with a 12% protocol-pool sink. Gross 162K ZEC/90d emission, ~19.4K locked into the Deferred Dev Fund Lockbox (currently unspendable), ~13K routed to FPF for community grants. Net ~123K / 90d hits market = ~+0.74% of supply per quarter.

Two structural catalysts to watch: (1) The third halving (~Nov 2028) cuts everything in half. (2)A successor ZIP authorizing lockbox disbursement would flip 12% of the cycle's emission from "locked" to "market sell" — community discussions are ongoing but no proposal active as of this writing.

Data note. Block reward + emission curve + fund split are origin-first from ZIP-0208 (Blossom) + ZIP-1015 (current Dev Fund) + ZIP-1014 (prior). Block height from a live block explorer. Circulating supply anchored to the monitor (price-volatile window — $447 → $603 swing — so the monitor-implied delta has some noise). Framework primary-derived net (+0.74%) lands within ~0.42pp of monitor implied (+0.32%), within tolerance.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of ZEC, Metrics 1 & 2. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated May 26, 2026.