RAY — my own logic

Not financial advice — this is just my own opinion on RAY, and I could be wrong. Treat it as a reference, not a recommendation, and please double-check the numbers yourself.

I hold some RAY and I keep watching a few things. Here's my thinking.

What could go wrong with RAY?

1. Raydium has unlocked about half its supply. The other half — roughly 278M RAY — is still “to be decided.” I don't know exactly when or how it comes out, so that's a real overhang.
2. There's a wallet holding about 82M RAY — coins the team bought back from the market over time.
3. So the real circulating supply is closer to 278M − 82M ≈ 196M, not the headline number.

Why do I still like RAY?

1. RAY lives on Solana. If Solana grows, RAY should benefit. As long as Solana is alive, RAY is hard to kill.
2. RAY is a DEX — it earns real revenue. Each quarter it spends about 12–20% of revenue buying back RAY, and it's done this for years (that's where the 82M came from). So the circulating supply is slowly shrinking.

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