MrNasdog Pressure Framework · full analysis
Fixed 16M supply. 15.4M circulating. One question, walked through four sell sources and four buy sources, over the last 90 days (what already happened) and the next 90 days (what's likely to happen). No price talk — just the structural read.
AAVE is an ERC-20 on Ethereum mainnet with a 16,000,000 hard cap— verified directly via the contract's totalSupply() function, which returns 16M exactly. 13M came from the 2020 LEND→AAVE migration (1.3B LEND swapped at 100:1); the other 3M was allocated to the Aave Ecosystem Reserve. There is no mint function, no team vest, no investor vest. The only structural sell channel is the Ecosystem Reserve, which has been drawing down over years of Safety Module rewards (current balance ~597K AAVE).
On the buy side, Aavenomics 2.0 was approved by the DAO in 2025 and runs a permanent $50M/yr buyback funded by protocol revenue. After a successful pilot (May–Nov 2025 retired 94K+ AAVE for $22M), the program now executes weekly tranches of $250K–$1.75M depending on market conditions, executed by the Aave Finance Committee.
The Pressure Framework asks one structural question:
Net 90d % = (sell total − buy total) / circulating × 100
Last 90 days · sell total
0.13% of circulating
Next 90 days · sell projected
~0.13% of circulating
SOURCE #1
Last 90 days
No mint function on the AAVE ERC-20. Total supply has been exactly 16,000,000 since the LEND migration; the contract returns that number from totalSupply() and cannot create more.
Next 90 days
Same forever — the cap is enforced at the contract level.
SOURCE #2
Last 90 days
The original LEND→AAVE migration completed in July 2020 (1.3B LEND swapped 100:1 for 13M AAVE). No team or investor vest schedule exists. The only allocation that wasn't immediately circulating was the 3M Ecosystem Reserve — handled in row #3.
Next 90 days
Same — no cliff schedule exists, so nothing can fire.
SOURCE #3
Last 90 days
The Aave DAO emits AAVE from the Ecosystem Reserve to stkAAVE stakers as Safety Module rewards. Current rate is 220 AAVE/day (was 360/day pre-Umbrella, Jun 2025). Over a 90-day window: 220 × 90 = ~19,800 AAVE ≈ 0.02M. Stakers receive the rewards and can claim + sell. The Ecosystem Reserve started at 3M AAVE in 2020 and has drawn down to ~597K AAVE today.
Next 90 days
Project the same rate forward. An open ARFC proposes cutting the rate to 150 AAVE/day (targeting 2.75% APR), but it has not yet been ratified. If it passes, the row drops to ~13,500 AAVE / 90d.
Is this rule-based? Yes — the daily emission rate is a governance-set parameter, not a discretionary release. Any change requires a passed ARFC. The reserve itself is held by the DAO, so ad-hoc grants are possible on top, but the structural drain is rule-shaped. Watching · rule + estimate.
SOURCE #4
Last 90 days
No bankruptcy estate holds AAVE. The 2.09M AAVE locked in the Safety Module has only a 20-day cooldown + 2-day claim window — an operational liquidity lock, not a long-term (>90d) lock. So it does not qualify for this row.
Next 90 days
Same — no long-term-locked AAVE is scheduled to unlock in the next 90 days.
Last 90 days · buy total
0.91% of circulating
Next 90 days · buy projected
~0.91% of circulating
SOURCE #1
Last 90 days
The DAO-approved permanent $50M/yr buyback, funded by protocol revenue, executed by the Aave Finance Committee. Weekly cadence ranges from $250K to $1.75M based on market conditions — average ~$1M/week. Over 13 weeks: ~$13M / ~$90 average AAVE price ≈ 144K AAVE / 90d. The pilot phase (May–Nov 2025) retired 94K+ AAVE for $22M, validating the cadence.
Next 90 days
Project at the same pace — the program is now permanent, not a one-off pilot. If protocol revenue holds, the next-90d buy should land near 0.14M AAVE.
Is this rule-based? Yes. The $50M annual cap and weekly range are governance-set; the Finance Committee executes them automatically each week. Discretion is limited to timing inside the weekly band. Watching · fixed.
SOURCE #2
Last 90 days
There is no EIP-1559-style base-fee burn on AAVE. Protocol revenue (the fee that would have funded a burn) funds the buyback above instead — counting it here would double-count.
Next 90 days
Same — no burn mechanism has been activated.
SOURCE #3
Last 90 days
The Aavenomics 2.0 buyback IS the DAO-led buy mechanism. No separate Foundation accumulation programme exists. Anti-GHO — sometimes mentioned in this context — is a non-transferable token redeemable for GHO debt, not an AAVE acquisition; it does not buy AAVE on the open market and is excluded from this row.
Next 90 days
Same — no announced second buy channel.
SOURCE #4
Last 90 days
No new long-term-lock programme launched in the window. The Safety Module (stkAAVE) has a 20-day cooldown + 2-day claim window — operational, not long-term.
Next 90 days
Same — no new lock-up programme on the schedule for the next 90 days.
Plug the totals back into the formula:
Last 90 days = (0.02M − 0.14M) / 15.4M × 100 = -0.78% — 0.78% of supply off market
Next 90 days = (~0.02M − ~0.14M) / 15.4M × 100 = -0.78% — 0.78% of supply off market
AAVE reads modestly off market. The buyback removes more AAVE than the Safety Module emits, leaving a structurally negative net. Two rule-based mechanisms in opposite directions: emission (Tag A rule, governance-set rate) versus buyback (Tag A rule, $50M/yr budget). Buyback wins at the current pace by roughly 7×.
The framework offers no opinion on whether that's good or bad for AAVE — only on what's structurally happening. The two rows to watch are: (1) the open ARFC to cut SM emissions from 220 → 150 AAVE/day (would shrink the sell row further), and (2) changes to the weekly buyback band — a tightening of protocol revenue could push toward the $250K floor.
Monitor reconciliation. Our inflation monitor reads −0.01% over the same window — essentially zero, confirming the 16M cap is intact. The 0.77pp gap with our framework number is structurally explained: the monitor measures reported circulating supply, which classifies buyback-acquired AAVE held in the DAO treasury as still circulating. The framework reads it as off market because the DAO is not a market seller. Both numbers are correct in their own definitions; the reconciliation is mechanical.
MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of AAVE, Metrics 1 & 2. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated May 28, 2026.