AARB · Arbitrum
Inflation analysis
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MrNasdog Pressure Framework

ARB · monthly unlocks keep feeding new supply to the market.

ARB is the governance token of Arbitrum, an Ethereum layer-2 — ~6.36B circulating of a 10B hard cap. Gas is paid in ETH, so ARB has no mint and no burn; supply rises purely as locked tokens vest.

Sell pressure. Vesting cliffs release ~278M ARB over the next 90 days, plus about 44M from DAO Treasury spending.

Buy pressure. None. There is no buyback and no burn — nothing in the protocol removes ARB from supply.

Net. About +5% to market over 90 days — supply heading up steadily as the unlock schedule runs toward Mar 2027.

Inflation
Last 90 Days
+5.06%
updated · Jul 8 2026
Net flow: 5.06% of supply goes to market over 90 days
Next 90 Days
+5.06%
estimate
Net flow: 5.06% of supply goes to market next 90 days
Supply growing · projected to keep growing
Upcoming · Next 90 Days
  • July vesting cliff~92.6M
    Jul 16 2026 · added to market
  • August vesting cliff~92.6M
    Aug 16 2026 · added to market
  • September vesting cliff~92.6M
    Sep 16 2026 · added to market
Sell pressure
1. Protocol inflation
0

ARB has no protocol inflation. Arbitrum is an Ethereum layer-2 where gas is paid in ETH, not ARB, so no new ARB is minted by the network — the 10B supply is fixed.

permanent · no change
2. Vesting unlocks
~277.9M ARB

Team, advisor and early-investor allocations vest on a monthly cliff on the 16th — about 92.65M ARB each month. Three cliffs land in the next 90 days (Jul 16, Aug 16, Sep 16), for roughly 277.9M ARB reaching wallets.

checked · Jun 30 2026
3. Foundation + unscheduled unlocks
~44M ARB

The Arbitrum DAO Treasury and Foundation move ARB into circulation through grants, incentive programs and operating budgets — running about 44M ARB over 90 days. The 2027 Foundation budget of 230M ARB cleared its on-chain vote on Jun 25 2026 but disburses across a full year, so only the run-rate counts here.

checked · Jun 30 2026
4. Long-term locked or bankruptcy
0

No bankruptcy estate or court-ordered distribution applies to ARB. The large DAO Treasury overhang, about 42.78% of supply, is governance-controlled, not a bankruptcy claim.

permanent · no change
Buy pressure
1. Programmatic buyback
0

There is no protocol buyback of ARB. Network fees are collected in ETH and flow to the DAO Treasury, so nothing is programmed to buy ARB back from the market.

permanent · no change
2. Protocol fee burn
0

ARB is never burned. Gas is paid in ETH and there is no fee burn of ARB, so no supply is removed by network activity.

permanent · no change
3. Foundation buy
0

No discretionary open-market buying of ARB by the Foundation or DAO has been announced or observed in the window — monitored.

checked · Jun 30 2026
4. New long-term lock
0

No new multi-year lock or escrow that removes circulating ARB has been announced in the window — monitored.

checked · Jun 30 2026

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Supply check · sell, buy & net
 
Last 90D
Next 90D
Sell total (M ARB)
321.880
321.950
Buy total (M ARB)
0.000
0.000
Sell % of circ
+5.059%
+5.060%
Buy % of circ
0.000%
0.000%
Net inflation %
+5.059%
+5.060%
Circulating supply: 6362.840M ARB
Read the inflation analysis
The full Pressure Framework write-up for ARB.
Where new supply comes from, and why nothing buys it back.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of ARB, Metric 1 (Inflation Monitor). Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated Jun 30, 2026.