ARB Inflation Analysis · October 2026 · Supply growing · projected to keep growing

ARB supply is growing, and it should keep growing until early 2027. In the last 90 days, team, investor and Arbitrum Foundation vesting unlocked 321.98M ARB, while the close of a DAO grants program sent 129.18M ARB back to the treasury, for a net +2.84% of circulating supply. Nothing mints, burns or buys back ARB, so the next 90 days carry three more monthly unlocks and project to +4.73%; the team and investor unlocks end on Mar 16 2027.

The verdict, in one paragraph

Over the 90 days from Jul 6 to Oct 4 2026, ARB's circulating supply grew by a net +2.84%: 321.98M ARB entered the market from vesting and 129.18M ARB left it when unspent grant money went back to the Arbitrum DAO treasury. For the next 90 days we project +4.73%, because the unlocks continue and no return of that size is planned. Our supply monitor reads +6.65% for its own 90 days, a gap of 3.81 points, so the page carries a ⚠ monitor gap note. We traced the gap to one payment: the DAO sent 230M ARB from its treasury to the Arbitrum Foundation on Jun 28 2026, before our window opened, and the supply figure the monitor reads only counted it on Jul 20 2026. Without that payment, both reads count about 193M new ARB. ARB is a token in its unlock years: no emission, no burn, a fixed 10B supply being handed out on a calendar.

Sell pressure: where new ARB comes from

Protocol inflation is 0. All 10B ARB were created when the token launched in March 2023, and the on-chain supply read the same at both ends of the window, apart from 0.02 ARB someone burned. The Arbitrum DAO does hold a right to mint up to 2% more ARB each year, but only by a vote, and that right has never been used. No mint proposal is open.

Vesting unlocks are the whole story: 321.98M ARB in 90 days. The larger part is the team and investor schedule. Offchain Labs staff, advisors and investors got 44.47% of supply with a one-year cliff, and since Apr 2024 their coins unlock in equal monthly steps of 92.65M ARB on the 16th. The Jul 16, Aug 16 and Sep 16 2026 steps added 277.94M ARB. The other part is the Arbitrum Foundation's vesting wallet, which releases its 699.5M ARB pool in a straight line from Apr 2023 to Apr 2027. It paid 44.04M ARB to the Foundation in four releases (Jul 31, Aug 31, Sep 8 and Sep 30 2026). For the next 90 days the same two sources add 321.03M ARB: three team and investor steps (Oct 16, Nov 16 and Dec 16 2026) and about 43.09M ARB of Foundation vesting.

Foundation and unscheduled unlocks are 0 this window. The DAO treasury is the biggest pile of ARB that is not counted as circulating, and it sent no ARB out between Jul 6 and Oct 4 2026. Its last payment was the 230M ARB Foundation budget on Jun 28 2026, approved by a DAO vote in June. No new treasury spending vote is open. Long-term locks and bankruptcy are 0: there is no estate or trustee paying ARB out.

Buy pressure: where new ARB goes

There is no programmatic buyback (0). Arbitrum's network fees are paid in ETH and flow to the DAO treasury as ETH, not ARB. Holders have asked on the governance forum whether ARB should earn something from that revenue, and a buyback paid with bonds was proposed in 2025, but no buyback has been voted in.

The fee burn is 0, for the same reason: gas is paid in ETH, so ARB has nothing to burn. The dead address gained under 3 ARB in 90 days. Foundation buying is 0: the Foundation spends ARB rather than buying it. Offchain Labs, the company that builds Arbitrum, has said since Mar 2025 that it buys ARB over time for its own treasury, but it gives no size, and coins a company holds still count as circulating. New long-term locks are 0: ARB has no staking lock, and delegating votes moves no coins.

The one real offset is a fifth line: 129.18M ARB of unspent grants returned to the treasury. The DAO voted in early July 2026 to wind down its gaming venture program, and the program's unused ARB went home: 86.18M ARB on Jul 7 and 43.00M ARB on Jul 21 2026. Those coins had been counted as circulating; back in the treasury, they are not. About 14.59M ARB is still in the program's wallet with no return date, so the next 90 days count 0 here.

Foundation and overhang

The Arbitrum DAO treasury holds 2.56B ARB, about a quarter of all supply, outside the circulating count. It can only move by a DAO vote, and in the past year it made one large ARB payment, the 230M ARB Foundation budget. The team and investor schedule still has 555.88M ARB to unlock in six monthly steps, the last on Mar 16 2027. The Foundation vesting wallet holds 95.41M ARB and runs out in Apr 2027.

Two more piles are already counted as circulating, so they cannot add new supply, only sell it: the Foundation's spending wallet with 324.59M ARB (mostly the June budget), and the 14.59M ARB left in the closing grants program. We read every one of these balances on-chain at each rebuild. If the treasury, the vesting wallet or the unlock calendar pays out more than planned between our checks, that outflow goes into the Foundation and unscheduled unlocks line at the next refresh.

How ARB compares to other Layer-2 tokens

ARB is a governance token for an Ethereum Layer-2, and that shapes its supply. Users pay gas in ETH, so the network can be busy without ARB being burned or bought. Ethereum itself works the other way: new ETH pays validators every day and a part of every fee is destroyed, so its supply moves with use. ARB's supply moves with a calendar and with DAO votes.

Optimism's OP is the closest twin: a fixed starting supply, a governance option to add yearly inflation, a large pool held for the community, and gas paid in ETH. Starknet's STRK differs, because it is staked to secure its network and is designed to pay stakers with new coins, so it carries a running emission that ARB does not have.

The key ARB difference is the finish line. Once the last team and investor step lands on Mar 16 2027 and the Foundation wallet empties in Apr 2027, ARB has no scheduled new supply at all. After that, supply grows only if the DAO spends its treasury or votes to mint.

What to watch in the next 90 days

Oct 16, Nov 16 and Dec 16 2026: the next three team and investor steps, 92.65M ARB each.

Treasury votes: any new DAO proposal that pays ARB out of the 2.56B treasury, including the separate funding request Offchain Labs has said it will bring if it is paid in ARB, would land in the Foundation and unscheduled unlocks line.

The grants program wind-down: whether the last 14.59M ARB goes back to the treasury before the program closes at the end of 2026.

Value for ARB holders: forum talk about tying ARB to the DAO's ETH revenue, such as a buyback, which would add a buy line for the first time.

Summary

ARB supply grew a net +2.84% in the 90 days to Oct 4 2026 and projects to +4.73% in the next 90 days. The cause is vesting: monthly team and investor unlocks of 92.65M ARB plus the Arbitrum Foundation's linear release, with no burn and no buyback to offset them, because gas on Arbitrum is paid in ETH. The main risk sits in the 2.56B ARB DAO treasury, which can be spent by vote at any time. The ceiling is the fixed 10B supply, and the scheduled unlocks end in spring 2027.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of ARB, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Checked Oct 4 2026.