ARB Inflation Analysis · October 2026 · Supply growing · projected to keep growing

ARB, the governance token of Arbitrum, is inflationary on its tradable float: 229.34M ARB entered the market in the last 90 days from team, investor and Arbitrum Foundation unlocks, while 43.0M ARB went back into the DAO treasury, for a net rise of +2.75%. The next 90 days look heavier at +4.73%, because three monthly team and investor unlocks of 92.65M ARB fall inside them and nothing buys back or burns ARB. All 10B ARB already exist; the float grows only as locked coins are released, until the last team and investor unlock in March 2027.

The verdict, in one paragraph

Over the last 90 days (Jul 16 to Oct 14 2026) ARB's circulating supply grew a net +2.75%: 229.34M ARB of new float against 43.0M ARB taken out, measured on 6.79B ARB circulating. Our inflation monitor reads +6.64% for its own 90-day window, a gap of 3.90 percentage points. We traced the whole gap and it closes: the supply figure the monitor reads booked a 230M ARB treasury payment from Jun 28 2026 (less an 86.18M ARB return on Jul 7 2026) only on Jul 20 2026, inside its window, and its window also holds the July unlock that ours does not. With those two timing effects taken out, both reads count the same coins, so no warning chip is shown. The next 90 days project +4.73%. ARB is a vesting-driven governance token with no burn and no buyback: its supply only goes up until the unlock calendar ends.

Sell pressure: where new ARB comes from

Protocol inflation is 0. Every ARB was created at launch in March 2023, and total supply sits at 9,999,998,977.6 ARB, about 1,022 below the original 10B after small burns. The ARB token contract lets the Arbitrum DAO mint up to 2% more each year, but only by a governance vote, and that vote has never happened. No mint proposal is open today, so no new ARB is being printed.

Vesting unlocks are the main source of new supply: 185.29M ARBin the last 90 days. Offchain Labs' team and advisors hold 26.94% of the 10B supply and early investors 17.53%. After a one-year cliff in March 2024, a quarter of both shares unlocked, and the rest unlocks in 36 equal monthly steps of 92.65M ARB (about 56.13M for the team and 36.52M for investors) until March 2027. Two of those steps, in August and September 2026, fall inside our window. The next three, on Oct 16, Nov 16 and Dec 16 2026, add 277.94M ARB, and 555.88M ARB was still locked after the September step.

Foundation and unscheduled unlocks add 44.04M ARB. The Arbitrum Foundation received 7.5% of supply, and 700M of it sits in a vesting wallet that releases in a straight line over four years from April 2023. On-chain, that wallet paid out 44.04M ARB to the Foundation's main wallet in four releases during the window, and 95.41M ARB remains. By the vesting contract's own math, 43.09M ARB more becomes free over the next 90 days. The much larger DAO treasury, 2.56B ARB, sent out nothing this window.

Long-term locked or bankruptcy supply is 0: no bankruptcy estate, trustee or long lock holds ARB waiting to be released.

Buy pressure: where new ARB goes

A programmatic buyback is 0. Network gas on Arbitrum is paid in ETH, and those fees flow to the DAO treasury in ETH; no rule turns them into ARB purchases. Offchain Labs has said it buys ARB for its own company treasury, but coins bought in the market and held by a company stay in the tradable float, so they remove nothing.

The protocol fee burn is also 0. ARB is not a gas token, so no fee burns it. Only about 6 ARB was sent to a dead address over the 90 days, too small to count. A Foundation buy is 0 and a new long-term lock is 0: ARB has no staking, and delegating voting power leaves the coins in the holder's wallet.

The one buy-side flow this window was a return to the DAO treasury: 43.0M ARB. On Jul 2 2026 the DAO voted to wind down its gaming venture fund, and on Jul 20 and Jul 21 2026 the fund sent 43.0M ARB back to the treasury. The treasury is not counted as circulating, so those coins left the float. An earlier 86.18M ARB return on Jul 7 2026 landed before our window. The fund's wallet still holds 14.59M ARB with no return date, so the next 90 days book 0.

Foundation and overhang

The largest ARB overhang is the Arbitrum DAO treasury at 2.56B ARB, about 26% of all supply and outside the circulating count. It moves only when delegates vote. Its last outflow was a 230M ARB payment to the Arbitrum Foundation on Jun 28 2026, approved in the Foundation's yearly funding vote. A new proposal now asks for 100M ARB more for the DRIP rewards program to grow the USDG stablecoin on Arbitrum; it was in forum discussion until Oct 15 2026 and still needs an offchain and an onchain vote. We check the treasury balance every rebuild.

Two scheduled pools sit outside the float as well: the team and investor calendar (555.88M ARB left after September) and the Foundation vesting wallet (95.41M ARB), both counted in the rows above as they release. Inside the float, the Foundation's main wallet holds 324.59M ARB, much of it from the June funding vote, and the gaming fund's wind-down wallet holds 14.59M ARB. Those coins can be sold or granted out, but they are already counted as circulating, so spending them adds no new supply. If any of these balances falls between rebuilds, the outflow enters the Foundation and unscheduled unlocks row at the next rebuild.

How ARB compares to other Layer 2 governance tokens

ARB belongs to the class of rollup governance tokens: a fixed initial supply, gas paid in ETH, and a float that grows mainly from insider vesting. That makes it the opposite of an exchange token or a fee-burning Layer 1 such as ETH, where the network itself destroys coins with every transaction. On Arbitrum the network earns fees in ETH for the DAO treasury, so heavy use helps the DAO's balance sheet but does not shrink ARB's supply.

Against other Layer 2 tokens, the difference is the calendar. Tokens whose investor vesting has already ended trade mostly on spending by their own treasuries, while ARB still has a fixed monthly step of 92.65M ARB until March 2027. ARB also keeps an unused right to mint up to 2% a year by vote, which a hard-capped token does not have. Compared with uncapped Layer 1 coins that pay validators every block, ARB's new supply is lumpy and dated rather than continuous, and it stops: once the last team and investor step passes in March 2027 and the Foundation wallet empties in April 2027, only DAO treasury votes can add to the float.

What to watch in the next 90 days

Oct 16 2026: the next team and investor unlock adds 92.65M ARB, followed by the same step on Nov 16 2026 and Dec 16 2026.

The USDG proposal: if delegates approve moving 100M ARB from the DAO treasury into the DRIP rewards program, that transfer would add up to 100M ARB of float once it leaves the treasury.

The Foundation vesting wallet: it releases about 43.09M ARB over the next 90 days, usually in two to four claims a quarter.

The gaming fund wind-down: a return of its last 14.59M ARB to the treasury would take those coins out of the float; follow-on payments to its portfolio companies would keep them in.

A mint vote: any proposal to use the 2% yearly mint right would be the first new ARB since launch.

Summary

ARB is inflationary on its tradable float: +2.75% in the last 90 days and a projected +4.73%in the next 90, driven by monthly team and investor unlocks of 92.65M ARB and the Arbitrum Foundation's linear vesting. Nothing burns or buys back ARB, because Arbitrum's gas is paid in ETH; the only buy-side flow this window was 43.0M ARB returned to the DAO treasury. The key risk is the 2.56B ARB treasury, which can add supply by vote at any time. The ceiling is clear: all 10B ARB already exist, and the insider unlocks end in March 2027.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of ARB, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Checked Oct 14 2026.