MrNasdog Pressure Framework · full analysis
8B hard cap. 2600M circulating. Stage 6 buyback routes up to 80% of daily platform fees back into ASTER. No price talk — just the structural read.
Aster is a perp DEX on BNB Chain with an 8,000,000,000 ASTER hard cap. The Feb 2026 tokenomics overhaul reduced emission 97% — from 78.4M/month vesting unlocks to a single 450,000 ASTER per weekly epoch staking emission. Stage 6 buyback launched Feb 4 2026 routes up to 80% of daily platform fees into ASTER buybacks.
Net 90d % = (sell total − buy total) / circulating × 100
Last 90 days · sell total
1.46% of circulating
Next 90 days · sell projected
~0.42% of circulating
SOURCE #1
Last 90 days
450,000 ASTER per weekly epoch × 13 weeks. Fixed-rate emission post Feb 2026 tokenomics overhaul (97% reduction from prior 78.4M/month vesting model).
Next 90 days
Same fixed rate; whitepaper-deterministic.
SOURCE #2
Last 90 days
Vesting paused. Team 5% (400M ASTER) frozen until Sep 18, 2026 (10M/month for 40 months thereafter); Treasury 7% (560M) governance-locked; Airdrop residual folded into staking model.
Next 90 days
Same — Sep 18 team cliff lands OUTSIDE this window.
SOURCE #3
Last 90 days
Stage 6 airdrop Base portion (~32M ASTER) claim window April 28 → May 28, 2026 — mostly fired INSIDE the last-90d window. Vesting-bonus tranche unlocks Oct 2026 (outside window). Treasury (560M) + Team (400M) buckets remain on-chain locked.
Next 90 days
Residual catch-up claims (~5M) projected through the next window; no other discretionary distributions scheduled.
SOURCE #4
Last 90 days
No bankruptcy overhang.
Last 90 days · buy total
3.38% of circulating
Next 90 days · buy projected
~3.38% of circulating
SOURCE #1
Last 90 days
Stage 6 launched Feb 4 2026 — up to 80% of daily platform fees → ASTER buybacks via two named wallets (40% automatic daily + 40% strategic discretionary). Cumulative buybacks all stages ≈ 266.3M ASTER for ~$187M as of Mar 9 2026.
Next 90 days
Project continued buyback accumulation at the Stage 6 pace.
SOURCE #2
Last 90 days
Last batch burn was S4+S5 = 98.4M on Feb 5 2026 — that fell BEFORE the Feb 26 window starts, so it is NOT a 90d flow event. Cumulative dEaD balance is 177.78M ASTER all-time as a standing fact (~2.22% of max). The S6 reserve has not yet been burned.
Next 90 days
Burns are event-driven from accumulated buyback reserve. No batch burn scheduled in the next 90d window; the S6 reserve is accumulating.
SOURCE #3
Last 90 days
No separate Foundation accumulation programme.
SOURCE #4
Last 90 days
Aster Chain native staking with lock-period multipliers (live since Feb 2026). Aggregate staked supply not exposed via public API. Material but not quantifiable.
Plug the totals back into the formula:
Last 90 days = (37.85M − 88M) / 2600M × 100 = -1.93%
Next 90 days = (10.85M − ~88M) / 2600M × 100 = -2.97%
ASTER reads modestly off market — but monitor disagrees. ~37.85M of supply moved to market (5.85M staking + ~32M Stage 6 airdrop claims) vs ~88M off market (Stage 6 buyback into Foundation wallets) over the last 90 days = ~1.93% of circulating supply off market. Next 90 days project ~2.97% off market on Stage 6 buyback continuing at the observed pace.
Honest note on the monitor gap. Our inflation monitor reads +5.37% supply growth over the same window — a 7.30pp gap with primary. The Stage 6 airdrop finding above closes ~32M of it; ~99M ASTER of supply growth remains unexplained (likely a larger airdrop figure beyond the 64M official S6 allocation, or 2025-scheduled unlocks rescheduled to summer 2026 partially flowing). Per the framework, primary is the published answer; the ⚠ chip stays. Watch the Sep 18, 2026 team cliff (10M/month start) which lands just outside the next-90d projection window.
MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of ASTER, Metrics 1 & 2. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated May 27, 2026.