MrNasdog Pressure Framework · full analysis
720M hard cap. 431.77M circulating. One question, walked through four sell sources and four buy sources, over the last 90 days (what already happened) and the next 90 days (what's likely to happen). No price talk — just the structural read.
AVAX is the native asset of Avalanche, with a 720,000,000 hard cap published at the 2020 token sale. 463.44M has been minted to date and 431.77M is in circulation (59.97% of the cap). The remaining 256.56M is the unspent tail of the 360M Staking Allocation, still being released as validator block rewards.
Net 90d % = (sell total − buy total) / circulating × 100
Sell total comes from four sources (protocol inflation, vesting unlocks, Foundation discretion, long-term locked / bankruptcy releases). Buy total from four matching sources (programmatic buyback, protocol fee burn, Foundation buying, new long-term locks). Everything below is one of those eight rows.
Last 90 days · sell total
1.31% of circulating
Next 90 days · sell projected
~1.31% of circulating
SOURCE #1
Last 90 days
Validator rewards minted on P-Chain from the 360M Staking Allocation. Gross protocol issuance is ~3.78%/yr × 431.77M circulating × 90/365 ≈ 4.0M AVAX over 90 days. ~216M AVAX (≈ 50% of circulating) is staked; rewards land in validator wallets first.
Next 90 days
Project at the same pace forward. The emission curve decays toward the 720M cap, but quarter-on-quarter change is sub-percent — flat over a 90-day window.
Is this rule-based? Yes. Emission is set in the Avalanche Native Token Dynamics whitepaper; rate is deterministic from current supply + staking parameters. We treat this row as fixed: confidence is high.
SOURCE #2
Last 90 days
The 2020 Foundation 10-year linear-quarterly schedule fires ~1.67M AVAX per quarter on Feb 11 / May 12 / Aug 10 / Nov 11. One cliff (May 12) landed inside this window. The unlock is verifiable on-chain via the Foundation wallet inflow on the cliff date. Team, Strategic Partners, Sale, Airdrop, Endowment, and Seed buckets are functionally fully vested by May 2026 — Foundation is the only remaining bucket.
Next 90 days
Next cliff lands Aug 10 inside the window — one event, ~1.67M AVAX. Same accounting.
Is this rule-based? Yes — the schedule is published, the cadence is observable on-chain. Tokens land in the Foundation custody wallet; deployment from custody to market is row #3.
SOURCE #3
Last 90 days
The Foundation holds a large already-unlocked custody balance (the cumulative tail of every prior cliff). Deployment to ecosystem grants, liquidity, or partner programmes hits market addresses and counts here. The trailing 90 days surfaced no large Foundation-to-market on-chain events, so the row sits near zero.
Next 90 days
Project the trailing pace forward — near zero, but Tag B. If the Foundation announces a deployment programme, this row moves first.
Is this rule-based? No. Deployment is at Foundation discretion with no published rule, schedule, or commitment. We treat this row as watching · estimate: confidence is moderate (recent pace has been quiet, but the custody balance is large and growing each quarter).
SOURCE #4
Last 90 days
No AVAX bankruptcy overhang. No long-term-locked AVAX (>90 days) scheduled to unlock in the window.
Next 90 days
Same — no bankruptcy-driven distributions on the horizon.
Last 90 days · buy total
0.02% of circulating
Next 90 days · buy projected
~0.02% of circulating
SOURCE #1
Last 90 days
There is no protocol-level buyback mechanism for AVAX. The Foundation does not run a revenue-funded accumulation programme.
Next 90 days
Same — no proposal to enable one has been ratified.
SOURCE #2
Last 90 days
100% of transaction fees on X-Chain / C-Chain / P-Chain (plus any L1 using AVAX as gas) are burned. Cumulative all-time burn ~5.02M AVAX (May 2026). The observed 90-day pace landed near ~100K AVAX = 0.02% of circulating; C-Chain activity is modest in 2026. The burn is structurally real but trivial relative to inflation.
Next 90 days
Project at the same observed rate forward. A material rise in C-Chain activity would lift it; the trailing twelve months show flat-to-soft, not accelerating, throughput.
Is this rule-based? Yes — burn is mechanical, every fee on every chain. The number is small because AVAX activity is small, not because the rule is weak.
SOURCE #3
Last 90 days
No Foundation accumulation programme. The Foundation is on the sell side (row #2), not the buy side.
Next 90 days
Same expectation.
SOURCE #4
Last 90 days
No scheduled cap-expansion or new lockup programme inside the window. Staking unbond is short-operational, not a long-term lock.
Next 90 days
Same — no programme scheduled.
Plug the totals back into the formula:
Last 90 days = (5.7M − 0.10M) / 431.77M × 100 = +1.29% of supply to market
Next 90 days = (~5.7M − ~0.10M) / 431.77M × 100 = +1.29% of supply to market
AVAX is structurally sell-heavy at the current pace. Two rows drive it: validator block reward inflation (~4.0M / 90d) and the Foundation 10-year quarterly cliff (~1.67M / 90d). The native fee burn cancels only ~2% of the sell side at current C-Chain activity — small relative to inflation.
Row #3 is the line to watch. The Foundation custody balance grows by 1.67M every quarter; deployment from custody to market is currently quiet but is at Foundation discretion. A deployment programme announcement (or a major ecosystem grant round) would flip row #3 quickly and lift net pressure further.
Cross-check. The market-monitoring source for AVAX shows circulating-supply growth of only ~+0.64% over the last 90 days — about 0.65pp below our structural reading. The gap is the cliff sitting in Foundation custody (verifiable on-chain): structural sell pressure has been recognised, but it has not yet hit market addresses. The monitor measures what reached market; we measure what will reach market. Both are right; the framework reports the structural number because it is the leading indicator.
MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of AVAX, Metrics 1 & 2. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated May 27, 2026.