BCH Inflation Analysis · September 2026 · Mixed flows · supply roughly steady
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is mildly inflationary, and only in one way: every new block pays its miner 3.125 BCH, which added 40,609 BCH in the 90 days to Sep 29 2026, a net supply change of +0.20%. Nothing leaves the float — Bitcoin Cash has no burn, no buyback and no staking lock — and the hard cap of 21M BCH with a halving every 210,000 blocks means the next cut, to 1.5625 BCH, arrives around April 2028.
The verdict, in one paragraph
Our reading of Bitcoin Cash for the last 90 days is +0.20%: 40,609 BCH of new mining rewards against 0 BCH taken out, on a circulating supply of 20.10M BCH. The next 90 days read the same +0.20%, because the block reward does not change until the next halving. Our supply monitor, which tracks the classified supply count day by day, reads +0.24% over its own 90 days — a gap of 0.04 percentage points, well inside our 0.5-point tolerance, so no warning chip is shown. BCH is a quiet, fixed-schedule mining chain: small, predictable new supply and no mechanism that removes any.
Sell pressure: where new BCH comes from
Row one, protocol inflation, is the only row with a number in it. Bitcoin Cash pays each block's miner a fixed subsidy of 3.125 BCH, a rate set by the halving at block 840,000 in April 2024. We counted every block in the window: 12,995 blocks between Jul 1 2026 and Sep 29 2026, about one every 9 minutes 58 seconds, a touch faster than the 10-minute target. That paid miners 40,609 BCH, about 451 BCH a day. Two separate block records agreed on the count, and the sum of every block's new coins matched the fixed schedule to a single satoshi. Because the reward is paid per block, a slightly faster chain pays slightly more — but the gap between this window and an exact 10-minute pace is only about 35 blocks, or 109 BCH.
Row two, vesting unlocks, is 0. Bitcoin Cash split from Bitcoin on Aug 1 2017 by copying the old ledger. There was no token sale, no team allocation and no investor round, so no Bitcoin Cash sits in a vesting contract waiting to open.
Row three, foundation and unscheduled unlocks, is 0. Bitcoin Cash has no foundation and no development fund paid from the block reward. A 2020 plan to divert 8% of each block reward to developers was rejected by miners and node teams, and the chain that kept that plan went its own way. Row four, long-term locked or bankruptcy, is also 0: the Mt. Gox estate still holds an undisclosed part of the roughly 143,000 BCH it recovered, but those coins were mined years ago and already count as circulating, so paying them out moves coins between holders without adding new supply.
Buy pressure: where new BCH goes
All four buy rows are 0. There is no programmatic buyback: no contract, company or treasury buys Bitcoin Cash back for the project. There is no protocol fee burn: every transaction fee — about 23.6 BCH across the whole window — goes to the miner who found the block. Some users do send coins to unspendable outputs by choice, but that came to only about 0.57 BCH in 90 days, and the supply count never fell, so we do not book it.
There is no foundation buy, because there is no foundation. Large buyers do exist: a Bitcoin Cash trust holding about 382,600 BCH has filed to become an exchange-traded fund, and a Nasdaq-listed company is building a Bitcoin Cash treasury and its own mining. Both buy coins that are already circulating, so they change who holds BCH, not how much BCH is on the market. Finally, there is no new long-term lock: Bitcoin Cash is secured by proof-of-work mining, not staking, so no coins are locked away to earn rewards.
Foundation and overhang
Bitcoin Cash has almost no overhang to watch. The circulating count of 20.10M BCH sits within about 16 BCH of every coin ever mined, so there is no reserve, treasury or unlock bucket outside the float. The one named holder we track is the Mt. Gox bankruptcy estate: its remaining BCH balance is not published, its repayment deadline is Oct 31 2026, and any payout only moves coins that are already counted. We check the estate's notices every two weeks. If the estate's balance falls between checks, we record the move at the next check — and because those coins are already circulating, it would not change the supply number. The early coins mined in Bitcoin's first years, carried over at the 2017 split, belong to no identified group and are counted like any other holder.
How BCH compares to other halving-model proof-of-work chains
Bitcoin Cash shares its supply rules with Bitcoin (BTC): the same 21M cap, the same halving every 210,000 blocks and the same 3.125-coin reward today. The two chains halved at the same block height, 840,000, a couple of weeks apart in April 2024. The difference is timing, not design: Bitcoin Cash adjusts its mining difficulty every block, so its block pace stays close to 10 minutes and its halvings land roughly on schedule, and neither chain burns fees. Bitcoin SV, which split from Bitcoin Cash in November 2018, keeps the same schedule too.
Against uncapped chains the contrast is sharper. Ethereum (ETH) has no cap and pays validators with new coins while burning part of every fee, so its net supply depends on how busy the chain is. Bitcoin Cash burns nothing, so its net supply is simply its mining reward — easy to predict to the block, and falling by half every four years or so. About 95.7% of all Bitcoin Cash that will ever exist has already been mined.
What to watch in the next 90 days
Oct 19 2026: the planned start of Bitcoin Cash futures on a major US futures exchange, still subject to regulatory review — a demand event that changes no supply. Oct 31 2026: the Mt. Gox repayment deadline; any BCH paid to creditors is already circulating, so our number would not move. Nov 15 2026:the lock-in date for the May 2027 Bitcoin Cash upgrade; the ideas under discussion include faster blocks, which would split the same reward across more blocks rather than add new coins. The trust's exchange-traded fund filing is also still waiting on approval, with no date set.
Summary
Bitcoin Cash grows its supply by about 0.20% every 90 days, entirely through the 3.125 BCH block reward paid to miners, with nothing burned, bought back or locked. There is no vesting, no foundation and no reserve outside the float, so the only real risk to the reading is a change to the block schedule itself, which would need a network upgrade. The 21M BCH cap and the next halving around April 2028 set a hard ceiling on how much new BCH can ever reach the market.
MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of BCH, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Checked Sep 29 2026.