Each panel below is one 4-year cycle. Quiet, pump, drop, recover — every time, in the same order.
Reading the chart: each labelled price is the half-year median of bitcoin in USD — one number per six-month window, 8 windows per cycle.
Current read: Cycle 4 likely bottomed at $73,107 (2026 H1). Recovery to $81,694 → $84,786 → $87,996 through 2027. Estimate, not a target.
The shape that repeats across every cycle.
Median bitcoin price per half-year. 2012 H1/H2 are approximate (data feed starts later).
| P | C1 2012-2015 | C2 2016-2019 | C3 2020-2023 | C4 2024-2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | ≈ $85 | $432 | $8,869 | $63,636 |
| P2 | ≈ $95 | $655 | $11,679 | $65,670 |
| P3 | $113 | $1,194 | $47,048 | $96,606 |
| P4 | $127 | $4,591 | $48,203 | $110,920 |
| P5 | $594 | $8,660 | $39,106 | $73,107 |
| P6 | $397 | $6,401 | $19,557 | $81,694 |
| P7 | $239 | $4,138 | $26,720 | $84,786 |
| P8 | $279 | $9,276 | $29,874 | $87,996 |
≈ approximate · italic = predicted
Each panel below is one 4-year cycle. Quiet, pump, drop, recover — every time, in the same order. Every price is the median of bitcoin in USD for that six-month window.
Read the strip below left-to-right and you have the whole thesis — every cycle traces the same shape, just compressed.
Sideways for a few halves.
The first 2 to 4 half-years of every cycle are quiet — price drifts sideways or grinds up gently. The boring stretch keeps getting shorter: Cycle 1 stayed quiet for four halves, Cycle 2 for three, and Cycles 3 and 4 only for two.
Sharp run to the cycle high.
When the quiet ends, the move is sharp — bitcoin runs hard for two or three half-years straight, putting in the cycle high. This is the part everyone shows on Twitter, but it always comes only after a long stretch of nothing.
Sharp pullback. Low > pump base.
After the peak, price falls fast over two or three halves. Critically, the low of the drop is always higher than where the fast pump started. Cycle 1 ended about 2× above its pump base, Cycle 2 about 3-4× above, Cycle 3 about 60% above. The bottom keeps getting shallower.
Grind back up.
From the cycle low, price climbs back. Cycle 2 was a fast snap-back; Cycles 1 and 3 were slower grinds. Either way, this recovery sets the quiet base for the next cycle's first stage.
Median bitcoin price per half-year, since the start of Cycle 1 through the current half. The 2012 H1 / H2 rows are approximate — the CoinMetrics community feed begins later, so those two points are user-supplied estimates.
| Half | Cycle 1 2012-2015 | Cycle 2 2016-2019 | Cycle 3 2020-2023 | Cycle 4 2024-2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | ≈ $85 | $432 | $8,869 | $63,636 |
| P2 | ≈ $95 | $655 | $11,679 | $65,670 |
| P3 | $113 | $1,194 | $47,048 | $96,606 |
| P4 | $127 | $4,591 | $48,203 | $110,920 |
| P5 | $594 | $8,660 | $39,106 | $73,107 |
| P6 | $397 | $6,401 | $19,557 | $81,694 |
| P7 | $239 | $4,138 | $26,720 | $84,786 |
| P8 | $279 | $9,276 | $29,874 | $87,996 |
≈ approximate · italic = predicted