The MrNasdog Bitcoin Framework
Is Bitcoin's price predictable?
I built this framework in 2019. It's how I bought Bitcoin near its bottoms — around $3,400 at the 2018–19 low, and again near $17,000in 2023 — and caught the recovery each time. Here's the full mechanism, and how it reads where the price is heading.
The method
Ignore the daily noise. I take one number per six months — the medianBitcoin price for that half-year (the middle price, so spikes don't distort it). One price per half-year, and the noise disappears: what's left is the same shape, repeating. Each dot on the charts below is one of those prices — e.g. Cycle 2's first dot, 2016 H1, about $432.
The shape, in one line
The four steps
Price barely moves.
For a stretch of half-years the price drifts almost flat — the slow, boring start most people scroll past. It's the near-level run on the left of every chart.
Price takes off.
In just one or two half-years it multiplies to the cycle's high — the steep line that shoots up on every chart.
It falls back — but not all the way.
From the peak the price drops hard. The part that matters: the low always stops above where the climb began.
It grinds back up.
Off the bottom the price climbs again, quietly building the base that the next cycle starts from.
The same shape, four times
Each panel is one four-year cycle. The coloured bands are the four steps; every number you need is on the chart.
- Quiet
- Pump
- Drop
- Recover
- Predicted
Three patterns
1. The same four steps, every cycle.
Take Cycle 3 (2020–2023): Bitcoin drifted quietly through 2020, exploded up through 2021 to its peak, fell hard through 2022 to its low, then climbed back in 2023 — Quiet, Pump, Drop, Recover. Cycle 1 and Cycle 2 do the same, in the same order.
2. The wait shrinks, the climb stretches.
Compare Cycle 2 and Cycle 3. Cycle 2 drifted from 2016 into 2017 — about 18 months — before its run. Cycle 3 drifted only through 2020, about a year. The quiet phase keeps shrinking, and the climb runs longer to fill the gap.
3. Every bottom sits higher than the last climb's start.
Cycle 3's climb began near $12K in late 2020; its crash bottomed near $20K in 2022 — still above where it started. The drop never gives the whole run back. Cycle 1 and Cycle 2 show the same rising floor — which is what flags the bottom early.
The MrNasdog Bitcoin Framework is my own original work, read from a daily Bitcoin price record kept since 2013. It shows how I think about Bitcoin — a personal method, not financial advice.