The MrNasdog Bitcoin Framework

Three findings that predict Bitcoin's cycle high and low

The MrNasdog Bitcoin Framework reads Bitcoin's four-year cycle from one number per half-year: the median price of each six months (H1 = Jan–Jun, H2 = Jul–Dec). Eight half-years make one cycle (Cycle 1 = 2012–2015, Cycle 2 = 2016–2019, Cycle 3 = 2020–2023, Cycle 4 = 2024–2027). Everything below is the three findings, each stated in plain language and proven with the exact numbers.

Finding 1 — Bitcoin always moves through the same four price-phases, in order

A "phase" is defined by what the price does. In every cycle the order is the same: a long slow phase, a sharp rise, a sharp fall, then a climb back. Definitions and proof:

Phase 1 — Quiet: price barely rises (near-flat)

For several half-years the median changes only slightly — Bitcoin drifts sideways or grinds up gently. You can see it because consecutive medians stay close together:

• • Cycle 1: $85 → $95 → $113 → $127 — four halves, only +49% over two years.
• • Cycle 2: $432 → $655 → $1,194 — slow climb across three halves.
• • Cycle 3: $8,869 → $11,679 — two near-flat halves.
• • Cycle 4: $63,636 → $65,670 — +3%, almost flat.

Phase 2 — Pump: price multiplies to the cycle high

When the Quiet ends, price rises sharply over one or two halves and sets the cycle peak. Measured from the last Quiet price (the "pump base") to the peak:

• • Cycle 1: $127 → $594 = 4.7× (peak 2014 H1).
• • Cycle 2: $1,194 → $8,660 = 7.3× (peak 2018 H1).
• • Cycle 3: $11,679 → $48,203 = 4.1× (peak 2021 H2).
• • Cycle 4: $65,670 → $110,920 = 1.7× (peak 2025 H2).

Phase 3 — Drop: price falls sharply from the peak to the cycle low

• • Cycle 1: $594 → $239 = −60% (low 2015 H1).
• • Cycle 2: $8,660 → $4,138 = −52% (low 2019 H1).
• • Cycle 3: $48,203 → $19,557 = −59% (low 2022 H2).
• • Cycle 4: $110,920 → $73,054 = −34% so far (low 2026 H1).

Phase 4 — Recover: price climbs off the low

From the bottom, price rises again — this sets the base for the next cycle's Quiet.

• • Cycle 1: $239 → $279 = +17%.
• • Cycle 2: $4,138 → $9,276 = +124%.
• • Cycle 3: $19,557 → $29,874 = +53%.
• • Cycle 4 (forward read): $73,054 → ≈$87,996 by 2027 H2.

Finding 2 — the cycle compresses: flat time shrinks, rising time grows

This finding has two sides of the same coin. The slow, near-flat Quiet phase takes fewer half-years each cycle — and by the same amount, the time Bitcoin spends actually rising (the Pump and Recover phases together) gets longer. In plain terms: less and less time drifting sideways, more and more time going up.

Side A — the flat (Quiet) time shrinks

• • Cycle 1: 2 years flat (4 halves, 2012 H1 → 2013 H2).
• • Cycle 2: 1.5 years (3 halves, 2016 H1 → 2017 H1).
• • Cycle 3: 1 year (2 halves, 2020 H1 → 2020 H2).
• • Cycle 4: 1 year (2 halves, 2024 H1 → 2024 H2).

Side B — the rising (Pump + Recover) time grows

• • Cycle 1: 1 year rising (Pump ½ yr + Recover ½ yr).
• • Cycle 2: 1.5 years (Pump 1 yr + Recover ½ yr).
• • Cycle 3: 2 years (Pump 1 yr + Recover 1 yr).
• • Cycle 4: ~2.5 years expected (Pump 1 yr + Recover ~1.5 yr, forward read).

Flat time runs 2 → 1.5 → 1 → 1 years; rising time runs 1 → 1.5 → 2 → ~2.5 years. As the sideways phase contracts, the up-move stretches longer — so a cycle's recovery has more room and time to run.

Finding 3 — the floor rule: each cycle's low stays above where its Pump began

The lowest half-year of the Drop has never fallen below the last Quiet price(the pump base). Bottoms keep rising cycle over cycle — which lets the framework predict a floor: the current cycle's low should hold above the price its own Pump started from. Proof (pump base → drop low):

• • Cycle 1: $127 → $239 = held 1.9× above.
• • Cycle 2: $1,194 → $4,138 = held 3.5× above.
• • Cycle 3: $11,679 → $19,557 = held 1.7× above.
• • Cycle 4: $65,670 → $73,054 = held 1.1× above (so far).

The MrNasdog Bitcoin Framework, built from MrNasdog's own daily Bitcoin price record since 2013. A personal research method, not financial advice. 2012 figures are approximate; 2026 H2 onward are forward reads.