BTC · Bitcoin
Inflation analysis
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MrNasdog Pressure Framework

BTC · one mint, nothing on the other side of the ledger.

BTC is the native coin of Bitcoin, a proof-of-work chain live since 2009 — ~20.06M circulating against a fixed 21M cap, with ~95% of all coins that will ever exist already mined.

Sell pressure. The block reward is the only thing that makes new BTC — 3.125 per block, about 40.05K BTC over 90 days. It halves again around April 2028.

Buy pressure. Nothing. Zero buyback, zero burn, no treasury, no lock — Bitcoin has no mechanism that takes a coin back.

Net. About +0.20% to market over 90 days — supply still heading up, but at the slowest pace of any major chain, and slowing further by rule.

Inflation
Last 90 Days
+0.20%
updated · Jul 16 2026
Net flow: 0.20% of supply goes to market over 90 days
Next 90 Days
+0.20%
estimate
Net flow: 0.20% of supply goes to market next 90 days
Mixed flows · supply roughly steady
Sell pressure
1. Protocol inflation
~40.05K BTC

Bitcoin mints new BTC only in the block reward paid to miners. The reward has been 3.125 BTC per block since the April 2024 halving, and the network actually produced 12,817 blocks over the last 90 days — about 142 a day — so roughly 40.05K new BTC entered. The reward is fixed by the halving schedule until block 1,050,000, around April 2028, when it drops to 1.5625 BTC.

updated · Jul 16 2026
2. Vesting unlocks
0

Bitcoin was a fair launch — no premine, no ICO, no investor or team allocation. There is no vesting schedule and no locked coins that can cliff into the market.

permanent · no change
3. Foundation + unscheduled unlocks
0

There is no foundation allocation, no DAO treasury and no reserve pool. Every coin that exists was mined, and the mined total equals the circulating count, so there is no held-back bucket that could be released. The big dormant early-miner wallets and government-seized coins are third-party holders whose coins already sit inside circulating supply — moving them adds no new supply.

permanent · no change
4. Long-term locked or bankruptcy
0

The Mt. Gox estate still holds about 34.5K BTC and its trustee has until Oct 31 2026 to finish repaying creditors — past the end of this window. Those coins are already counted as circulating, so paying them to creditors moves existing coins between wallets rather than creating supply. The estate's largest recent move, in June 2026, went to its own wallets and reached no exchange — tracked.

checked · Jul 16 2026
Buy pressure
1. Programmatic buyback
0

Bitcoin has no treasury and no buyback contract. Nothing in the protocol can buy BTC back from the market.

permanent · no change
2. Protocol fee burn
0

Transaction fees are paid to the miner who finds the block, not destroyed. Bitcoin has no fee burn, so nothing offsets the block reward. Coins sent to unspendable addresses are lost by their owners, not removed by the protocol.

permanent · no change
3. Foundation buy
0

There is no foundation, company or protocol entity that holds a BTC budget and buys on the open market.

permanent · no change
4. New long-term lock
0

Bitcoin has no staking, no escrow and no lockup primitive that takes coins off the market. Coins held by companies, funds or governments stay freely spendable and are counted as circulating — monitored.

checked · Jul 16 2026

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Supply check · sell, buy & net
 
Last 90D
Next 90D
Sell total (M BTC)
0.040
0.040
Buy total (M BTC)
0.000
0.000
Sell % of circ
+0.200%
+0.200%
Buy % of circ
0.000%
0.000%
Net inflation %
+0.200%
+0.200%
Circulating supply: 20.057M BTC
Read the inflation analysis
The full Pressure Framework write-up for BTC.
Why the mint is the whole story, why the buy side is empty, and what the 21M ceiling really binds.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of BTC, Metric 1 (Inflation Monitor). Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated Jul 16 2026.