1 · The 4-year cycle
Watch▲Bottom zone (day ~900) → price upnow▼Top zone (day ~530) → price down
This cycle2020 cycle2016 cycle
Past bottoms came near day 900. Today is day 907.
Read our 4-year cycle story →Checked Oct 14 2026
Bitcoin
BTC · Layer-1Checked
Oct 14 2026
Oct 14 2026
The big picture
Supply + DemandMax. 10
Supply ↘
3.5/5Steady
#1#101
Supply rankNow #35
Demand ↘
5/5Exceptional
Social rank · 12m
Now #1
Now #1
Price Drivers ↘
Beta3 drivers
▲ 2 price up
▼ 0 price down
▼ 0 price down
Coming next
No single dated event in the next 90 days.
Metric 1 of 3
BTC · Coin Supply
Miners get a few new coins. Nothing removes any.
3.5 / 5Steady
Age16 yearssince Jul 2010
Unlocked100%of total supply
Last 90 days+0.20%new supply
Next 90 days+0.20%estimate
BTC is Bitcoin: 20.10M of a hard cap of 21M coins are mined, and every one is unlocked. New coins come only from mining.
Sell pressure. Miners got 3.125 BTC per block, 40,825 BTC in 90 days from 13,064 blocks. Nothing vests, and big holders like Mt. Gox are already counted.
Buy pressure. Nothing removes BTC: no burn, no buyback, no staking lock.
Net. Net, supply grows about 0.20% in 90 days, and the same next.
Inflation
Last 90 Days
+0.20%
checked · Oct 10 2026
Net flow: 0.20% of supply goes to market over 90 days
Next 90 Days
+0.20%
estimate
Net flow: 0.20% of supply goes to market next 90 days
Mixed flows · supply roughly steady
Sell pressure
1. Protocol inflation
~40.83K BTC
Miners earn 3.125 brand-new BTC for every block they add. In these 90 days the chain added 13,064 blocks, about 145 a day and a little faster than the 10-minute target, so 40,825 BTC was created. The total supply read at both ends of the window rose by exactly the same amount. The next halving, at block 1,050,000 around April 2028, cuts the reward to 1.5625 BTC.
checked · Oct 10 2026
2. Vesting unlocks
0
Nothing vests. Bitcoin launched in January 2009 with no premine, no sale and no team or investor allocation, so there has never been a locked pile to open. Every coin in existence was mined.
permanent · no change
3. Foundation + unscheduled unlocks
0
There is no foundation, treasury or company that controls BTC supply. Circulating supply equals total supply (20.10M BTC), so every big holder — including governments and the earliest dormant miners — already sits inside the float. When they move or sell coins, nothing new reaches the market.
checked · Oct 10 2026
4. Long-term locked or bankruptcy
0
The Mt. Gox estate still holds about 34,390 BTC, and its deadline to repay creditors is Oct 31 2026. Those coins are already counted as circulating, so paying them out adds no new supply — it only changes who holds them.
checked · Oct 10 2026
Buy pressure
1. Programmatic buyback
0
No contract, company or treasury buys BTC back on the network's behalf. Bitcoin has no revenue of its own to spend.
checked · Oct 10 2026
2. Protocol fee burn
0
Every transaction fee is paid to the miner; none is destroyed. Coins sent to well-known dead addresses in these 90 days came to under 0.004 BTC — too small to count.
checked · Oct 10 2026
3. Foundation buy
0
There is no foundation to buy. Funds, listed companies and governments do buy BTC, but they buy coins that were already circulating, so they take nothing out of the count.
checked · Oct 10 2026
4. New long-term lock
0
Bitcoin has no staking. A US bill to hold the government's seized BTC for 20 years passed a House committee on Sep 16 2026 but is not law, and those coins stay counted as circulating either way.
checked · Oct 10 2026
Supply check · sell, buy & net
Last 90D
Next 90D
Sell total (M BTC)
0.041
0.041
Buy total (M BTC)
0.000
0.000
Sell % of circ
+0.203%
+0.203%
Buy % of circ
0.000%
0.000%
Net inflation %
+0.203%
+0.203%
Circulating supply: 20.096M BTC
Read the full Inflation Analysis
BTC: a small, fixed flow of new coins to miners, and nothing taking any out.
Long-form mechanism walk. ~5 min.
Metric 2 of 3
BTC · Coin Demand
Two sides: how much people want BTC right now, and how much buying could come later.
5 / 5Exceptional
Current demand2.5 / 2.5
This part is based on social media. It shows how hot BTC is right now. A better rank means more people are talking about it.
BTC on social mediaIts rank among the 110 coins we follow · last 12 months · #1 = most talked about
#1 · Oct 10 2026
Today, people are talking about BTC for two reasons:
- 1Bitcoin slipped after US prices rose faster than expected.
On Oct 14 2026 the US price report for September showed prices up 3.7% from a year ago, a bit above the 3.6% people expected. Bitcoin had touched $84,000 earlier, then fell back to about $82,800 after the report. People ask if the Fed may now raise rates again, and if Bitcoin can hold near $81,000.
- 2Strive wants to raise $500 million to buy more Bitcoin.
On Oct 13 2026 Strive said it plans to sell a new preferred share called SATS that pays a fixed 15% dividend, to raise about $500 million. The company already holds 32,773 BTC, up from under 20,000 three months ago. People ask how long companies can keep borrowing to buy Bitcoin, and what happens if they have to stop.
Checked Oct 14 2026
Should you buy BTC? Questions about BTC
Is it a good time to buy Bitcoin today?
By the law of supply and demand, Bitcoin's long-run signal is positive (Oct 14 2026, score 8.5/10). New supply: +0.20% in the next 90 days. Demand: exceptional (5/5). Bitcoin's price drivers: 2 ▲ price up, 0 ▼ price down.
Why is Bitcoin dropping if big buyers are still buying?
Sellers are likely the reason. Mt. Gox must pay out the rest of its coins by Oct 31 2026, and the US moved 12K seized BTC. Big buyers still added about 80K BTC in 90 days, so the selling looks short-term rather than a broken story. Our supply-and-demand read for Bitcoin stays positive.
Bitcoin or XRP: which one has the better supply story?
Bitcoin looks stronger. It scores 8.5/10 against XRP's 6/10 on Oct 10 2026. Bitcoin adds just +0.20% new supply in 90 days, while XRP adds +1.14% as about 0.3B XRP leaves Ripple's escrow every 30 days. By supply and demand, Bitcoin's long-run signal is positive today.
Can Bitcoin reach $1,000,000?
At $1,000,000, Bitcoin would be worth about $20.1 trillion in total — about 12 times its $1.66 trillion market cap today (Oct 14 2026, about $82,757 a coin). Bitcoin's supply also grows +0.82% in the next year, so every extra coin needs buyers too. That leaves Bitcoin's long-run signal at positive, by supply and demand.
Is it time to take profit on Bitcoin?
Bitcoin's signal is positive for now. Bitcoin's signal would turn if new supply jumps (today +0.20% in 90 days), or demand falls from exceptional.
Is Bitcoin a good investment right now?
Bitcoin sits at 8.5/10 today (Oct 14 2026): supply 3.5/5, demand 5/5. One more year adds +0.82% to Bitcoin's supply. Long-run signal: positive.
When is a good time to buy Bitcoin?
By the law of supply and demand, the better time to start a position in Bitcoin is when its new supply is low, demand is high and its price drivers point up. Bitcoin today: +0.20% new supply in 90 days (steady), demand exceptional (5/5), drivers 2 ▲ / 0 ▼.
What could push Bitcoin's price up or down?
Right now 3 things drive Bitcoin's price (2 ▲, 0 ▼). ▲ The 4-year cycle: since the Apr 2024 halving · next halving about Apr 2028 ▲ Big buyers: Still buying: about +80K BTC in 90 days. • Possible sellers: Mt. Gox deadline Oct 31 2026; US moved 12K seized BTC.
Should I buy Bitcoin or Ethereum?
Side by side on Oct 14 2026: Bitcoin at 8.5/10 with a positive signal, Ethereum at 6.5/10 with a mixed signal. By supply and demand, Bitcoin is the stronger of the two.
Every answer here applies basic economic theory — the law of supply and demand — to this coin's data. It is not financial advice. How we read every coin →
How does MrNasdog judge every coin, and why is +0.20% shown in red?
We look at two things, half each: supply and demand. Fewer new coins mean less selling pressure. A meme coin scores 1.5 at most on supply: its team got its coins for free, so no new supply does not make it safe. We also show each coin's age, with a warning when it is younger than 1 year. Demand looks at how much people want the coin now and how much buying could come later. Price Drivers (Beta) are the 2 or 3 things that can move one coin's price that supply and demand miss; they have no score. BTC supply grows +0.20% in the next 90 days, so it shows in red: more BTC reaches the market than is removed. Zero or falling supply is always green, any growth is red.
What do Watch BTC alerts cover?
One email before each big supply event, and the day our verdict changes. Nothing else. You can watch 2 coins for free.
More coins: ETH · BNB · XRP · Which crypto to buy now → · Embed this coin
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