BTC Inflation Analysis · October 2026 · Mixed flows · supply roughly steady

Bitcoin supply is roughly steady and grows on a fixed, published path. In the 90 days to Oct 10 2026, miners received 40,825 BTC of new coins from 13,064 blocks at 3.125 BTC a block, while nothing removed any: 0 BTC burned, bought back or locked. That is +0.20% of the 20.10M BTC in circulation, the monitor reads +0.20% too, and the hard cap of 21M BTC means the flow can only shrink from here.

The verdict, in one paragraph

Bitcoin's net supply change over the last 90 days is +0.20% (40,825 BTC created, 0 BTC destroyed, against a circulating supply of 20,096,093 BTC), and the next 90 days project the same +0.20%, because the block reward does not change until the next halving. The independent inflation monitor reads +0.20% for the same window, a gap of 0.00 percentage points — well inside the half-point line, so no warning chip is shown. Bitcoin is a quiet, fixed-schedule chain: a small, predictable mining flow with no one able to add to it or take from it.

Sell pressure: where new BTC comes from

Protocol inflation is the only source of new Bitcoin. Since the April 2024 halving at block 840,000, every block pays its miner 3.125 BTC of brand-new coins. Between Jul 12 2026 and Oct 10 2026 the network added 13,064 blocks, about 145 a day and slightly faster than the 10-minute target (595 seconds a block on average), so the Bitcoin block subsidy created 40,825 BTC. We checked the total Bitcoin supply at both ends of the window, and it rose by exactly 40,825 BTC, so no subsidy went unclaimed. Miners usually sell part of this new BTC to pay for power and machines, which is why it counts as sell pressure.

Vesting unlocks are 0, and always will be. Bitcoin launched on Jan 3 2009 with no premine, no token sale and no team, investor or foundation allocation, so there has never been a locked Bitcoin pile waiting to open. Foundation and unscheduled unlocks are also 0: no foundation or company controls BTC supply, and circulating supply equals total supply, so every large holder is already counted as part of the market.

The long-term locked or bankruptcy row is 0 as well. The Mt. Gox bankruptcy estate still holds about 34,390 BTC and has until Oct 31 2026 to repay its creditors. Those coins were mined long ago and are already in the circulating count, so a Mt. Gox payout moves BTC from the estate to creditors but adds no new Bitcoin supply.

Buy pressure: where new BTC goes

Nothing in the Bitcoin protocol takes BTC out of circulation. The programmatic buyback row is 0, because Bitcoin has no treasury and no revenue of its own to buy coins back with. The protocol fee burn row is 0: every Bitcoin transaction fee goes to the miner who includes it, and none is destroyed. Coins people sent on purpose to well-known dead Bitcoin addresses in the window added up to less than 0.004 BTC, far too small to count.

The foundation buy row is 0, since there is no Bitcoin foundation. Spot Bitcoin funds, listed companies and governments do buy BTC, sometimes in size, but they buy coins that were already circulating, so they change who holds Bitcoin rather than how much is on the market. New long-term lock is 0too: Bitcoin has no staking, and a US bill that would hold the government's seized BTC for 20 years passed a House committee on Sep 16 2026 but is not law; even then, those coins would stay in the circulating count.

Foundation and overhang

Bitcoin has no team-controlled overhang. There is no foundation wallet, no treasury, no DAO and no unscheduled reserve; total supply minus circulating supply is 0 BTC, which is the clearest proof that no hidden pile sits outside the market. We still watch the biggest third-party holders, because their moves shape what traders expect: the Mt. Gox estate with about 34,390 BTC, US government wallets with an estimated 200,000 to 330,000 BTC of seized coins, the largest listed company holder with about 848,000 BTC, the spot Bitcoin funds and the earliest dormant mining wallets. We re-check total against circulating supply at every rebuild. If that gap ever opens and a balance outside the count starts to fall between refreshes, the outflow enters the foundation and unscheduled unlocks row at the next refresh.

How BTC compares to other proof-of-work chains

Bitcoin is the model for halving chains with a hard cap. Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash copy the same design: a fixed block reward that halves on a set block count, a ceiling that can never be raised, no premine and no fee burn. Like BTC, their whole sell side is the mining subsidy and their buy side is empty, so their supply reading is set by where they sit in the halving cycle. Bitcoin, more than 95% mined, is near the low end of that range at about 0.20% a quarter.

Dogecoin and Monero work differently: both pay a fixed tail emission that never stops, so there is no supply cap and the yearly flow stays flat in coins instead of falling by half every four years. Ethereum moved away from proof of work and pays validators instead of miners, with a base-fee burn that destroys part of every fee; Bitcoin has no such burn, so its net flow equals its gross flow.

The practical difference is predictability. A Bitcoin reader can work out the next 90 days, the next year and the next decade of new supply from the block count alone. The one real input that varies is how fast blocks arrive, and the difficulty adjustment pulls that back to about 144 a day every 2,016 blocks.

What to watch in the next 90 days

The Mt. Gox repayment deadline on Oct 31 2026: the estate could pay out, move or be given another extension for its remaining 34,390 BTC. Any payout adds no new supply, but it can push coins toward exchanges.

US government wallets: seized BTC moved between wallets and to an exchange custody desk on Oct 7 2026 and Oct 8 2026, with no sale confirmed. Watch for sales or for the 20-year hold bill to reach a House floor vote.

BIP-361, a draft proposal to one day freeze old coins that are open to quantum computers: it is far from activation, but it is the first Bitcoin idea in years that would change which coins can move.

Block pace: blocks ran slightly fast in this window. If the hashrate keeps rising, new supply runs a little above 40,500 BTC a quarter until the difficulty catches up. The next halving, to 1.5625 BTC a block at block 1,050,000, is expected around April 2028, outside this window.

Summary

Bitcoin supply grew +0.20% in the last 90 days and is projected to grow the same in the next 90 days: miners created 40,825 BTC at 3.125 BTC a block, and nothing burned, bought back or locked any. There are no unlocks, no foundation and no hidden reserve, because every Bitcoin ever made was mined into the open market. The main risks to the reading are large holders such as the Mt. Gox estate and governments selling coins that already circulate, not new supply. Under the 21M hard cap, the next halving in about April 2028 will cut the flow in half again.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of BTC, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Checked Oct 10 2026.