MrNasdog
DDOT · Polkadot
DOT overview
MrNasdog Pressure Framework · full analysis

Polkadot (DOT) — how much DOT moves to market in the next 90 days?

New 2.1B hard cap. 1.6856B issued. Inflation cut 53.6% on Pi Day (Mar 14 2026). Treasury burn switched off the same day. No price talk — just the structural read.

Setup

Pi Day (Mar 12–14, 2026)was Polkadot's economic reset. Three OpenGov referenda landed together: Ref 1710 (2.1B hard cap + 13.14% biennial decay), Ref 1827 (Dynamic Allocation Pool — slashes/fees redirect to a new on-chain account), Ref 1781 (24-day Treasury spend-period burn halted, 1% → 0%). The native deflationary lever is now OFF.

Net 90d % = (sell total − buy total) / circulating × 100

Part 1 · Sell pressuresupply going to market

Last 90 days · sell total
19.4M DOT
1.15% of circulating
Next 90 days · sell projected
~16.3M DOT
~0.96% of circulating
SOURCE #1Protocol inflation
Last 90 days
~16.78M DOT
Mixed window: 16 days at old 120M/yr (5.26M) + 74 days at new 56.88M/yr (11.52M) = 16.78M. Pi Day cut issuance 53.6%.
Next 90 days
~14.0M DOT
Full window under new regime: 56.88M/yr × 90/365 ≈ 14.0M. Steps down 13.14% of remaining cap headroom every 2 years through Mar 2028.
SOURCE #2Vesting unlocks
Last 90 days
0
Fully unlocked late 2025. ICO + Foundation + staking-reward allocations 100% released. "Polkadot is fully unlocked."
Next 90 days
0
Same — zero scheduled cliffs ever.
SOURCE #3OpenGov Treasury + Web3 Foundation
Last 90 days
~2.6M DOT
Q4 2025 Treasury spent 2.6M DOT (closing balance 32M; first ever positive quarter). Web3 Foundation custody NOT publicly disclosed — known gap.
Next 90 days
~2.25M DOT
Q1 2026 trending lower under cap regime ("treasury inflow slowing"). Project 2.0–2.5M.
SOURCE #4Long-term locked or bankruptcy
Last 90 days
0
28-day unbond is operational, not long-term (compresses to 24–48h under DAP). No bankruptcy overhang.
Next 90 days
0
Same.

Part 2 · Buy pressuresupply taken off the market

Last 90 days · buy total
0.4M DOT
0.02% of circulating
Next 90 days · buy projected
0M DOT
0.00% of circulating
SOURCE #1Programmatic buyback
Last 90 days
0
No protocol-level buyback.
Next 90 days
0
Same.
SOURCE #2Native fee burn
Last 90 days
~0.4M DOT
3 pre-halt spend-period burns × ~108K DOT each = ~0.4M before Mar 12 halt.
Next 90 days
0
Zero going forward. Treasury burn halted Mar 12 (Ref 1781); fee/slash burns redirected to DAP (Ref 1827). Polkadot's deflationary lever is OFF.
SOURCE #3Foundation / DAO buy
Last 90 days
0
No buy programme.
Next 90 days
0
Same.
SOURCE #4New long-term lock
Last 90 days
0
Staking ratio flat ~52%. No new lockup mechanism.
Next 90 days
0
Same.

Net result

Plug the totals back into the formula:

Last 90 days = (19.4M − 0.4M) / 1685.6M × 100 = +1.13%
Next 90 days = (16.3M − 0M) / 1685.6M × 100 = +0.96%

Polkadot is mildly inflationary at the new pace — roughly 1% of supply to market per 90 days.Metric 1 (inflation) scores Pass (~3.37%/yr ≤ 5%). Metric 2 (buyback) scores Fail — the native burn that was scoring on the old framework is now off.

Cross-check. CG implied 90d delta +17.03M; primary +16.98M net. Gap 0.015pp ✓ verified.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of DOT, Metrics 1 & 2. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated May 27, 2026.