Vesting ends Oct 14. Freed collateral still adds coins.
FIL pays for storage on Filecoin: 833.30M coins circulate, 42.6% of the 1.96B made so far.
Sell pressure. New supply came three ways in 90 days: 16.84M FIL of launch vesting, 12.44M of storage collateral set free, and 5.35M of block rewards. The vesting ends on Oct 14 2026.
Buy pressure. Only fees and penalties are burned: 578,470 FIL. Nothing is bought back.
Net. Net, supply grew 4.09% in 90 days; about 2.25% next, as the vesting stops.
Storage providers that win blocks are paid in new FIL from the reward pool: 5.35M FIL in these 90 days, about 59,400 a day. The reward per block shrinks on a schedule (down 5.5% in the window), so the next 90 days should bring about 5.19M. Three quarters of every reward stays locked for 180 days first; that lock is counted in row 4.
The six-year launch vesting for Protocol Labs and the Filecoin Foundation (409.81M FIL in all) releases about 187,100 FIL a day: 16.84M in these 90 days. It ends on Oct 14 2026, so only about 1.70M FIL is left to vest. The Protocol Labs vesting wallets paid out 14.85M FIL in the window; coins count as circulating the day they vest, so the payouts add nothing on top.
The mining reserve holds 282.93M FIL with no release plan; it did not move in the window, and spending or burning it needs a network upgrade. Team wallets we track — the Protocol Labs payout wallet (19.57M FIL, up from 16.81M), a Foundation wallet (10.00M) and the vesting wallets (5.35M Protocol Labs, 7.55M Foundation) — are already counted as circulating, so their moves add nothing.
Storage providers lock FIL as collateral for the space they promise, plus their locked rewards. That locked pile fell from 75.0M to 62.56M FIL as storage deals expired or ended early, releasing 12.44M FIL net of new locks. Most of it came out in July; the last 60 days released only 3.94M. No bankruptcy estate holds FIL.
No contract, treasury or company buys FIL back. Network fees are burned (row 2) or paid to storage providers.
Transaction base fees, per-sector fees charged each day and penalties for storage ended early are sent to the burn address: 578,470 FIL in these 90 days. Most came in July with the big collateral releases (up to 20,000 a day); since early August the burn has run at about 2,000–4,000 a day.
No announcement or on-chain flow this window shows the Foundation, Protocol Labs or any treasury buying FIL.
New storage does lock fresh FIL as collateral, but the locked pile shrank overall this window. New locks are already netted inside row 4 of the sell side, so they are not counted twice here.
Two sides: how much people want FIL right now, and how much buying could come later.
This part is based on social media. It shows how hot FIL is right now. A better rank means more people are talking about it.
Today, people are talking about FIL for one reason:
The token release to Protocol Labs and the Filecoin Foundation, running since launch in 2020, stops on Oct 15 2026. That could cut new FIL coming out each year by about 75%, from about 88 million to about 22 million. FIL rose about 40% in the 30 days before Oct 8 2026, and people ask if this news is already in the price.
Checked Oct 10 2026
By the law of supply and demand, Filecoin's long-run signal is negative (Oct 11 2026, score 3.5/10). New supply: +2.25% in the next 90 days. Demand: weak (2/5). Filecoin's price drivers: 0 ▲ price up, 1 ▼ price down.
Not dead, but shrinking. Storage on Filecoin has more than halved in about 340 days. The Solstice upgrade on Oct 19 2026 ties rewards to paid storage, which should show how much real demand is left. By supply and demand, Filecoin's long-run signal is negative today.
Mostly too much supply for too few buyers. Filecoin adds +2.25% new supply in 90 days and +8.19% in a year, while demand reads weak at 2/5. Less storage on the network gives buyers little reason to step in. For Filecoin, the supply-and-demand signal is negative right now.
At $100, Filecoin would be worth about $83.3B in total — about 92 times its $910M market cap today (Oct 11 2026, about $1.09 a coin). Filecoin's supply also grows +8.19% in the next year, so every extra coin needs buyers too. Our supply-and-demand read for Filecoin stays negative.
Filecoin's signal is negative for now. Filecoin's signal would turn if new supply keeps arriving (+2.25% in 90 days), or demand falls from weak, or Storage on network keeps pointing down. The next date on Filecoin's calendar: Oct 19 2026 — Solstice on mainnet.
Filecoin sits at 3.5/10 today (Oct 11 2026): supply 1.5/5, demand 2/5. One more year adds +8.19% to Filecoin's supply. Long-run signal: negative.
By the law of supply and demand, the better time to start a position in Filecoin is when its new supply is low, demand is high and its price drivers point up. Filecoin today: +2.25% new supply in 90 days (heavy), demand weak (2/5), drivers 0 ▲ / 1 ▼.
Right now 2 things drive Filecoin's price (0 ▲, 1 ▼). ▼ Storage on network: Storage on Filecoin has more than halved in about 340 days. • Makers' decisions: Solstice upgrade on Oct 19 2026 ties rewards to paid storage.
Side by side on Oct 11 2026: Filecoin at 3.5/10 with a negative signal, Bitcoin at 8.5/10 with a positive signal. By supply and demand, Filecoin is the weaker of the two.
Every answer here applies basic economic theory — the law of supply and demand — to this coin's data. It is not financial advice. How we read every coin →
We look at two things, half each: supply and demand. Fewer new coins mean less selling pressure. A meme coin scores 1.5 at most on supply: its team got its coins for free, so no new supply does not make it safe. We also show each coin's age, with a warning when it is younger than 1 year. Demand looks at how much people want the coin now and how much buying could come later. Price Drivers (Beta) are the 2 or 3 things that can move one coin's price that supply and demand miss; they have no score. FIL supply grows +2.25% in the next 90 days, so it shows in red: more FIL reaches the market than is removed. Zero or falling supply is always green, any growth is red.
One email before each big supply event, and the day our verdict changes. Nothing else. You can watch 2 coins for free.
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