FIL Inflation Analysis · October 2026 · Supply growing · projected to keep growing

The MrNasdog Pressure Framework reads Filecoin (FIL) as inflationary: circulating FIL grew +4.09% over the last 90 days and is projected to grow about +2.25% over the next 90. Three sources added 34.62M FIL — 16.84M of launch vesting, 12.44M of storage collateral set free and 5.35M of block rewards — while the burn took out only 578,470 FIL. The six-year launch vesting ends on Oct 14 2026, which removes Filecoin's largest steady source of new FIL; block rewards and returning collateral remain.

The verdict, in one paragraph

Over the 90 days from Jul 7 2026 to Oct 5 2026, FIL supply on the market rose by a net 34.04M FIL, or +4.09% of the 833.30M FIL circulating today. The next 90 days project to +2.25%, because the launch vesting stops nine days in. Our inflation monitor reads +4.75% for the same 90 days, a gap of 0.67 percentage points, which is over our 0.5-point line, so the coin page carries a ⚠ monitor gap note. We traced the gap: the monitor divides by the smaller supply of 90 days ago (worth 0.19 points), and the supply figure it reads jumped in steps the Filecoin chain did not take (+5.99M FIL on Aug 28 2026, −5.02M FIL on Sep 4 2026). On the chain, every coin is accounted for. The label we give FIL today: a storage chain still paying out its launch allocation, about to lose its biggest source of new coins.

Sell pressure: where new FIL comes from

The biggest source in the window was the launch vesting. Protocol Labs and the Filecoin Foundation received 409.81M FIL at launch, vesting in a straight line over six years from Oct 15 2020. That works out to about 187,100 FIL a day, or 16.84M FIL in these 90 days. The schedule ends on Oct 14 2026, with only about 1.70M FIL left to vest, so the next 90 days carry far less. The Protocol Labs vesting wallets paid out 14.85M FIL to other wallets during the window, but Filecoin counts a coin as circulating the day it vests, so those payouts are not counted a second time.

The second source was storage collateral. Filecoin storage providers lock FIL as a deposit for the space they promise, and three quarters of every block reward is also locked for 180 days. When storage deals expire or end early, that FIL comes back. The locked pile fell from 75.0M to 62.56M FIL, so 12.44M FIL returned to the market after counting new locks. Most of it came out in July; the last 60 days released only 3.94M FIL, so our forward figure, which repeats the 90-day pace, may run high.

The third source is protocol inflation: block rewards. Providers that win blocks are paid in new FIL from the reward pool, 5.35M FIL in these 90 days, about 59,400 a day. The reward per block shrinks on a schedule and fell 5.5% in the window, so the next 90 days should mint about 5.19M FIL. Foundation and unscheduled unlocks added 0: the 282.93M FIL mining reserve did not move. No bankruptcy estate or trustee holds FIL, so that line is 0 too.

Buy pressure: where new FIL goes

Filecoin has one buy-side mechanism: the burn. Transaction base fees, the fee charged each day per storage sector and penalties for storage ended early all go to a burn address, where the FIL can never move again. That took out 578,470 FIL in the 90 days. The burn was heavy in July, up to about 20,000 FIL a day while many sectors ended early, and has run at about 2,000 to 4,000 FIL a day since early August. Against 34.62M FIL of new supply, the burn removed less than 2%.

There is no programmatic buyback (0): no contract, treasury or company buys FIL back. There is no foundation buy (0) either; nothing this window shows Protocol Labs, the Filecoin Foundation or any treasury buying FIL. New long-term locks book 0 as a separate line: new storage does lock fresh FIL as collateral, but the locked pile shrank overall, and new locks are already netted into the collateral figure on the sell side.

Foundation and overhang

The largest FIL pile that could still reach the market is the mining reserve: 282.93M FIL held by the protocol with no release plan. It did not move in the window, and spending or burning it needs a network upgrade; a draft Filecoin proposal from February 2026 suggests burning it, with no vote or date. Because the reserve is not counted as circulating, a burn would remove nothing from today's float, but it would end the risk of a future release.

The team wallets we track are already circulating: the Protocol Labs vesting wallets hold 5.35M FIL, the Filecoin Foundation vesting wallet 7.55M FIL, a Protocol Labs payout wallet 19.57M FIL (up from 16.81M at the start of the window) and a Foundation wallet 10.00M FIL. Selling from these adds no new supply under our count, but it is real selling, so we read their balances with every rebuild. If any of these balances falls between refreshes, the outflow enters Sell #3 at the next refresh.

How FIL compares to other storage and Layer 1 chains

Most proof-of-stake Layer 1 chains pay validators a set percentage of supply each year, so their inflation is steady and easy to predict. Filecoin is different in three ways. First, its block reward is not a percentage: it comes from a fixed pool of 1.1B FIL that pays out on a declining schedule, partly tied to how much storage the network holds. Second, Filecoin locks a large slice of supply as storage collateral, so when providers leave or let deals expire, coins flow back into the market even if no new FIL is minted. Third, FIL still carries a large launch allocation that has been vesting every day for six years, unlike chains whose team tokens unlocked in a few big cliffs.

Compared with Arweave-style storage coins that charge once and store forever, Filecoin runs a rental model: providers prove storage every day, earn rewards and post collateral. That makes FIL supply sensitive to the size of the network. Raw storage power has been falling, so collateral has been coming out, which is why FIL's 90-day growth is higher than block rewards alone would suggest. Compared with burn-heavy chains, Filecoin's fee burn is small: it removed under 2% of what was added this window.

After Oct 14 2026, FIL's structure changes. With vesting gone, the only scheduled inflow is block rewards of roughly 21M FIL a year, a little over 2% of circulating supply, plus whatever collateral comes back. That puts FIL closer to a mid-inflation Layer 1 than to the high-unlock tokens it has looked like since launch.

What to watch in the next 90 days

Oct 14 2026 — the launch vesting ends. The last 1.70M FIL vests and the flow of 187,100 FIL a day stops; this is the largest supply change since Filecoin launched.

The Solstice network upgrade (FIP-0118). It went live on the Filecoin test network on Sep 28 2026, and the second release candidate of the node software shipped on Sep 29 2026; the mainnet date is not set yet. Solstice gives every new sector full storage power and sends a share of block rewards to paid services, with any unearned share burned. Once live, it could change how much collateral is locked and how much FIL is burned.

Storage collateral. The locked pile is down to 62.56M FIL. A further drop adds supply; if Solstice brings new storage, fresh locks could turn this line around.

The mining reserve. Any proposal to spend or burn the 282.93M FIL reserve would show up as a network upgrade; none is scheduled.

Team wallets. The Protocol Labs payout wallet grew to 19.57M FIL; large transfers from it to exchanges would be the first sign of selling.

Summary

The MrNasdog Pressure Framework reads Filecoin (FIL) at +4.09% net over the last 90 days and about +2.25% over the next 90: 16.84M FIL of launch vesting, 12.44M FIL of freed storage collateral and 5.35M FIL of block rewards against a 578,470 FIL burn, with no buyback. The six-year vesting for Protocol Labs and the Filecoin Foundation ends on Oct 14 2026, which cuts the flow of new FIL by most of its size. The key risk is that falling network storage keeps releasing collateral, and the 282.93M FIL mining reserve stays a large pile with no plan. FIL has a 2B cap and only about 409M FIL has been mined so far, so supply keeps growing for years, but more slowly once the vesting stops.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of FIL, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Checked Oct 5 2026.