MrNasdog
HHBAR · Hedera
HBAR overview
MrNasdog Pressure Framework · full analysis

Hedera (HBAR) — how much HBAR moves to market in the next 90 days?

50B HBAR pre-minted at genesis (hard cap). 43.373B released (86.75% of cap). Zero inflation, zero burn — the only sell pressure is the Council Treasury Release schedule. Buy ledger is structurally empty. No price talk — just the structural read.

Setup

Hedera was pre-minted in full at genesis (2018) with a hard cap of 50B HBAR. Council nodes do not mint new HBAR — they earn fees only. Network fees flow to council node operators + Treasury and do not burn. The unreleased ~6.627B (13.25% of cap) sits in Council-controlled system accounts and is distributed under a published quarterly Treasury Management Report.

Net 90d % = (sell total − buy total) / released × 100

The four-bucket allocation framework (Dec 2024 Council decision): Initial Development Costs 7.77% (~exhausted), Purchase Agreements 25.40%, Network Governance 16.23%, and the dominant lever Ecosystem & Open Source Development 50.61% (~21.5B HBAR still allocatable; covers Hedera Foundation / Hashgraph Association grants).

Part 1 · Sell pressuresupply going to market

Last 90 days · sell total
0.50B HBAR
1.15% of circulating
Next 90 days · sell projected
~4.0B HBAR
~9.22% of circulating
SOURCE #1Protocol inflation
Last 90 days
0
No protocol inflation. 50B HBAR pre-minted at genesis (2018); council nodes earn fees but do not mint new HBAR.
Next 90 days
0
Same — fixed cap, no mint mechanism.
SOURCE #2Treasury release — Council Management Report
Last 90 days
0.50B HBAR
Q1 2026 actual release = 0.527B HBAR per the published Treasury Management Report (covers Jan-Mar 2026). The Feb 26 → May 26 window is approximately Q1 2026 + start of Q2, so realized last-90d ≈ 0.50B HBAR. Releases are LUMPY: Q3'25 was 0.013B, Q1'25 was 3.968B, Q2'26 forecast is 3.972B — quarter-to-quarter swings are ~300×.
Next 90 days
~4.0B HBAR
Q2 2026 forecast = 3.972B HBAR — heavily back-loaded Ecosystem release at end-June. Q3 2026 not yet forecast (next Treasury Management Report ~July 2026). Window covers ~⅖ of Q2 + ⅔ of Q3. Projection ~4.0B assumes most of the Q2 Ecosystem distribution lands inside the May 27 → Aug 25 window.
Is this rule-based? Partial. The four-bucket allocation framework is rule-based (Council decision); per-quarter timing and per-counterparty deployment within the Ecosystem bucket (dominant lever) is Council-discretionary. We treat this as watching · fixed for the Q2 forecast and watching · estimate for the Q3 portion. Caveat: if the Hedera Foundation custody-holds the Q2 release rather than deploying counterparty-by-counterparty, market-facing flow will lag the structural release figure.
SOURCE #3Foundation / Council discretionary (separate from #2)
Last 90 days
0
Collapsed into row #2 — Hedera's Treasury Release IS the Foundation/Council distribution. No separate vesting-vs-discretionary split exists (unlike AVAX where row #2 is a fixed cliff and row #3 is custody-to-market deployment).
Next 90 days
0
Same.
SOURCE #4Long-term locked or bankruptcy estate
Last 90 days
0
No long-term lockups, no bankruptcy estate. The unreleased ~6.6B sits in Council-controlled system accounts under the published Treasury Release framework.
Next 90 days
0
Same.

Part 2 · Buy pressuresupply taken off the market

Last 90 days · buy total
0 HBAR
0.00% of circulating
Next 90 days · buy projected
0 HBAR
0.00% of circulating
SOURCE #1Programmatic buyback
Last 90 days
0
No protocol-level buyback mechanism.
Next 90 days
0
Same.
SOURCE #2Native fee burn
Last 90 days
0
Network fees do NOT burn. Fees flow to council node operators + Treasury (per the published fee schedule). The Jan 2026 v0.69 fee bump (ConsensusSubmitMessage $0.0001 → $0.0008) increased Treasury fee income but does NOT affect HBAR supply.
Next 90 days
0
Same — fee structure unchanged.
SOURCE #3Foundation / DAO buy
Last 90 days
0
No Foundation / Council accumulation programme.
Next 90 days
0
Same.
SOURCE #4New long-term lock
Last 90 days
0
No scheduled lockup programme.
Next 90 days
0
Same.

Net result

Plug the totals back into the formula:

Last 90 days = (0.50B − 0B) / 43.373B × 100 = +1.15%
Next 90 days = (~4.0B − ~0B) / 43.373B × 100 = +9.22%

HBAR has a sell-only ledger. The buy side is structurally empty — no buyback, no burn, no Foundation buy, no lockup. The framework score depends entirely on the Council Treasury Release schedule.

Two windows look very different on purpose. Last 90 days (Q1 2026 distribution pace) was a quiet quarter — only 0.527B released. Next 90 days catches the back-loaded Q2'26 Ecosystem allocation (~4B HBAR forecast) — a 7-8× quarter-on-quarter jump. This is normal for HBAR — quarterly swings of 300× have happened in trailing 18 months (Q3'25 0.013B, Q1'25 3.968B).

Cross-check. The end-of-pipeline monitor reads circulating-supply growth of ~+0.98% over the same window — within 0.2pp of our primary structural reading (+1.15%). Mirror Node and the monitor agree within 0.1%. ✓ verified.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of HBAR, Metrics 1 & 2. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated May 27, 2026.