HBAR Inflation Analysis · November 2026 · Supply growing · projected to keep growing
HBAR's supply is growing, and the next 90 days look the same. Hedera never mints a new coin: all 50B HBAR were created at launch, and fresh supply reaches the market only when the Hedera Council moves coins out of its own reserve. Between Aug 12 and Nov 10 2026 the Council released 536.05M HBAR, nothing was burned or bought back, and circulating supply rose +1.21%, in line with the +1.21% other trackers show.
The verdict, in one paragraph
Over the 90 days to Nov 10 2026, HBAR's circulating supply grew by +1.21%, from about 43.79B to 44.33B HBAR. Market trackers report the same +1.21%, a difference of 0.00 points, so the coin page carries no warning note. For the next 90 days, to Feb 8 2027, we expect about 556.25M HBAR more, or +1.25%. The fair label for Hedera is a fixed-cap coin whose float still grows steadily as its governing Council hands out a reserve it has held since launch.
Sell pressure: where new HBAR comes from
Protocol inflation is zero. Hedera has no block reward and no way to mint, and the 50B cap can only change if every member of the Council agrees. Stakers are paid from a reward account that already counts as circulating; its balance fell by about 26.6M HBAR in the window, but those coins were already on the market, so they add nothing.
Vesting unlocks added 16.06M HBAR. That is the quarterly staff payout from a coin plan set up in 2018, which went out on Sep 30 2026. The Council lists 36M HBAR for the next payout, due around Dec 31 2026, plus a 260K tail of early sale coins, so this row carries 36.26M HBAR in the next 90 days.
Foundation and unscheduled releases were the big one: 519.99M HBAR. The Council sent 40M HBAR out on Aug 15, 150M on Oct 1, 28M on Oct 15 and 300M on Oct 23 2026, plus small monthly pay. These releases fund the Council's own running costs and grants to the wider Hedera ecosystem. They have no fixed dates, but releases of this size have landed in every quarter for more than a year, including 300M on Dec 20 2025, about 209M on Jan 29 2026 and 300M on Mar 5 2026. So we expect roughly the same 519.99M HBAR in the next 90 days.
Long-term locked or bankruptcy coins are zero. No court case or trustee holds HBAR to pay out later, and the early sale coins have almost all been handed out already.
Buy pressure: where new HBAR goes
The buy side is empty. Hedera has no buyback, so nothing takes HBAR off the market on a set plan. There is no fee burneither: every fee goes to node operators, the staking reward account and the network's own fee account, and all three already count as circulating. The Council and the Hedera Foundation hand coins out and do not buy them back, and the US spot HBAR fund buys coins that are already in circulation, which removes nothing from the count. Staking locks nothing away either: about 13.33B HBARis staked, but it stays in its owners' wallets and can move at any time. With every buy row at zero, all 536.05M HBAR released in the window landed as net new supply.
Foundation and overhang
The one overhang that matters is the Council's reserve itself. On Nov 10 2026 the reserve accounts held about 5.67B HBAR, the full gap between the 44.33B in circulation and the 50B cap. On paper the Council plans to move much of it soon: its own release table lists about 4.02B HBAR for this quarter, about 3.83B of it as grants for ecosystem growth through the Hedera Foundation. The Council has listed an ecosystem figure of about 3.8B to 4.2B in each of the last four quarters and released only a small part of it, about 209M in the first quarter of 2026, nothing in the second and 40M in the third. So the steady pace of real releases, not the planned total, is the better guide. If the full amount did go out, supply would grow by around 9% in a single quarter.
The staking reward account is the second thing we watch. It held about 126.1M HBAR on Nov 10 2026 and is shrinking by about 0.3M a day. Those coins already count as circulating, but if the Council tops the account up from its reserve, that top-up is a new release. If any reserve balance falls between checks, the outflow enters the Foundation and unscheduled row at the next check.
How HBAR compares to other proof-of-stake Layer 1 chains
Most proof-of-stake Layer 1 chains grow their supply by paying validators in brand-new coins, often with no cap, and many burn part of each fee to offset it. Hedera works the other way round. Its supply is capped at 50B and nothing is minted, but nothing is burned either, so the float grows only as the Council hands out coins it has held since launch. Stakers are paid out of fees and a funded reward account, not out of new issuance.
That makes HBAR's supply story closer to a coin still working through a large treasury than to an inflation chain. With about 88.7% of all HBAR already out, the reserve is nearly done, and once it is gone HBAR's supply can no longer grow at all. Until then, the pace depends on the Council's choices, not on a rule written into the protocol, and with no burn there is nothing on the other side of the ledger to slow it.
What to watch in the next 90 days
Around Dec 31 2026, the quarterly staff payout of about 36M HBAR is due. By Dec 31 2026, the Council's fourth quarter ends, and we will see how much of the 3.83B ecosystem figure actually left the reserve. In early January 2027, the Council publishes its next release table, with a first look at the plans for the first quarter of 2027. Through the window, the staking reward account keeps shrinking by about 0.3M HBAR a day, and any top-up from the reserve would count as a new release. And Hedera's next software upgrade, v0.79, went live on the test network on Nov 6 2026, two days after a cancelled first try; it brings no change to how HBAR is released.
Summary
HBAR's circulating supply grew +1.21% in the 90 days to Nov 10 2026, and we expect about +1.25% over the next 90 days. Hedera mints no new coins and burns none; all of the growth comes from the Hedera Council releasing 536.05M HBARfrom a reserve that still holds about 5.67B. The key risk is that the Council finally moves the ecosystem grants it keeps listing, which could add several billion HBAR in a single quarter. The hard ceiling is the 50B cap: once the reserve is empty, HBAR's supply stops growing for good.
MrNasDog Pressure Framework analysis of HBAR, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Checked Nov 10 2026.