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MrNasdog Pressure Framework

Monad · quiet supply now, the first insider cliff still ahead.

MON is the native token of Monad, a parallel-EVM Layer-1 — 100B genesis supply, uncapped, ~11.8B circulating (~11.8%), one of the thinnest floats we track.

Sell pressure. The protocol mints ~1.9% a year in block rewards, but only the slice that reaches the float counts — about 60M last quarter, easing to 58M after the Jun 9 2026 reward cut. No unlock vests before Nov 24 2026.

Buy pressure. None of size — no buyback, and the base-fee burn is negligible at today's usage. Net counter-flow is roughly zero.

Net. About +0.49% to market next 90 days — mild. The real test is the Nov 24 2026 insider cliff, just past this window.

Inflation
Last 90 Days
+0.51%
updated · Jul 31 2026
Net flow: 0.51% of supply goes to market over 90 days
Next 90 Days
+0.49%
estimate
Net flow: 0.49% of supply goes to market next 90 days
Supply was growing · trend cooling
monitor gap · Our monitor reads −0.30% for the same window against our +0.51%. The float count fell about 36M because the circulating figure tracks Monad's vesting-unlock schedule, and no cliff opens before Nov 24 2026 — so it cannot see the block rewards the protocol keeps minting. On-chain, total supply has climbed past its 100B genesis (checked Jul 31 2026), confirming that new MON is real; we book only the ~60M of it that reaches the tradable float via staking yield, since the rest compounds inside the Foundation's non-circulating stake. We keep our own read.
Sell pressure
1. Protocol inflation
~60M MON

Monad mints a fresh block reward to the validator that produces each block and its delegators — the token is uncapped, so this is genuine new supply, and on-chain total supply has already climbed past its 100B genesis. On Jun 9 2026 the MIP-12 hard fork sped blocks up from 400ms to 300ms and cut the reward from 25 MON to 18 MON at the same time, so the pace per second barely changed — about 1.9% of the whole 100B base per year. The catch is that only 11.83% of MON is circulating and the Foundation delegates a large slice of its own locked stake, so most of that mint compounds inside non-tradable balances. The part that actually reaches the float — roughly 13% staking yield on the ~1.8M MON staked out of circulation — is about 60M over the last 90 days, cooling to about 58M next quarter after the reward cut. That is close to 0.5% of the float.

updated · Jul 31 2026
2. Vesting unlocks
0

Nothing vests into the market in this window. Monad locked 50.6% of supply at launch, and the very first insider cliff does not open until Nov 24 2026 — the one-year mark — when the team, investors and the Category Labs treasury all begin releasing together. That date sits about 26 days past this 90-day window, so the schedule contributes zero here. It is the single largest event on Monad's horizon and the reason the next quarter is the quiet one.

checked · Jul 31 2026
3. Foundation + unscheduled unlocks
0

No discretionary release was seen this window, but the overhang is the whole story in MON: about 88B MON — roughly 88% of everything that exists — sits outside the float. The biggest piece is the 38.5B ecosystem allocation, which the Foundation holds unlocked and spends at its own discretion over many years; under 2% has been committed so far, and a large block of it is delegated to validators. Behind it sit the 27B team, 19.7B investor and 3.95B treasury allocations, all still locked until the Nov 24 2026 cliff. Capacity is not the same as a schedule, so this row stays 0 until an actual outflow is observed — but if any of these balances falls between refreshes, it lands here.

checked · Jul 31 2026
4. Long-term locked or bankruptcy
0

There is no Monad estate, no trustee and no court-supervised seller. The long-dated insider locks are covered by the vesting and Foundation rows above.

checked · Jul 31 2026
Buy pressure
1. Programmatic buyback
0

Monad runs no buyback. Fee revenue is not routed back into MON on the open market — the only counter-flow the protocol has is the base-fee burn in the next row.

checked · Jul 31 2026
2. Protocol fee burn
0

The base component of every transaction fee is burned, EIP-1559 style, so activity does chip away at supply. But at today's usage it is tiny next to the mint: the chain would need roughly $112k a day of burn to cancel issuance, while even an all-base-fee upper bound is only a few thousand dollars a day. It reads 0 here because the realised amount is negligible and cannot be cleanly measured from a public endpoint — the mechanism is real but not yet material.

checked · Jul 31 2026
3. Foundation buy
0

No open-market buying by the Monad Foundation. It is a net holder and distributor of supply, not a buyer.

checked · Jul 31 2026
4. New long-term lock
0

Staking does lock MON while it secures the chain, but no new lock-up programme, staking cap or dedicated lock contract with a stated quantum was announced in the last 90 days.

checked · Jul 31 2026

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Supply check · sell, buy & net
 
Last 90D
Next 90D
Sell total (M MON)
60.000
58.000
Buy total (M MON)
0.000
0.000
Sell % of circ
+0.507%
+0.490%
Buy % of circ
0.000%
0.000%
Net inflation %
+0.507%
+0.490%
Score (0–2)
1.0
1.3
Verdict
mixed
mixed
Circulating supply: 11825.165M MON
Read the Inflation Analysis
Monad: quiet supply now, the first insider cliff still ahead.
Long-form mechanism walk. ~5 min.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of MON, Metric 1 (Inflation Monitor). Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated Jul 31 2026.