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MrNasdog Pressure Framework

MON · a single date is about to release more MON than is trading today.

MON is the fee, staking and governance token of Monad, a parallel-EVM layer 1 — 11,825M circulating against 100,000M issued at launch, with no supply cap.

Sell pressure. Every block mints 18 MON, but only 39% reaches a seller — 185.2M over 90 days. Then on Nov 24 2026 a one-year cliff frees 16.61B.

Buy pressure. Only the burned base fee, 26.6M MON in 90 days — a twentieth of what the chain creates.

Net. About 1.34% goes to market over 90 days and 142% next — the cliff alone more than doubles the tradable supply.

Inflation
Last 90 Days
+1.34%
updated · Sep 8, 2026
Net flow: 1.34% of supply goes to market over 90 days
Next 90 Days
+141.73%
estimate
Net flow: 141.73% of supply goes to market next 90 days
Supply growing · projected to keep growing
monitor gap · Framework +1.34% vs monitor 0.00%. The chain minted 473.4M MON between Jun 10 2026 and Sep 8 2026 — 9,405,576 blocks at 25 MON, then 13,234,547 at 18 MON after the Jul 23 2026 consensus change — and the staking account 0x0000000000000000000000000000000000001000 was still credited exactly 18 MON in each of 25 consecutive blocks read on Sep 8 2026. The market-wide circulating count has been pinned at 11,825,165,000 MON since Apr 14 2026: it follows unlock milestones, not block rewards, so the on-chain read is kept.
Upcoming · Next 90 Days
  • One-year cliff — team, investor and labs-treasury MON+16.61B MON
    Nov 24 2026 · added to market
Sell pressure
1. Protocol inflation
~185.2M MON

Monad mints new MON on every block and there is no ceiling on the total. We watched the staking account across 25 blocks in a row and it was credited exactly 18 MON each time, to nine decimal places — the mint is live, fixed and paid per block. A consensus change on Jul 23 2026 cut that reward from 25 MON to 18 and shortened the block from 400 to 300 milliseconds, so the window is two rates stitched together: 473.4M MON created in all. Most of it never reaches a seller. We walked all 196 validators and every one of their 13,090 delegations, and 20 wallets delegating the published programme amounts hold 10,910.0M of the 15,388.8M staked — so 39.1% of the mint lands where it can actually be sold: 185.2M MON.

updated · Sep 8 2026
2. Vesting unlocks
16.61B MON

Nothing at all unlocked in the last 90 days, and that is the point — the whole schedule is one date. Monad launched Nov 24 2025 and put team, investor and labs-treasury MON behind a one-year lock. On Nov 24 2026 that lock opens: 10,700.0M MON for the team, 4,925.0M for investors and 987.5M for the labs treasury, 16,612.5M in a single day. That is more than the entire tradable float of 11,825.2M. The figure is the project's own published schedule leg by leg, not a tracker estimate — the team leg is its stated 10.7% of initial supply — and the date lands 77 days into the next 90. After it, about 945.5M MON a month keeps arriving until Nov 2029.

checked · Sep 8 2026
3. Foundation + unscheduled unlocks
0

Watched as overhang and far larger than the float: 38,500M MON sits in the Ecosystem Development allocation, unlocked since launch, held by the Monad Foundation, with no published release calendar of any kind — 10,910.0M of it is delegated to validators through 20 identified wallets, which is why more MON is staked than trades. Also watched: the 50,650M MON still behind the one-year cliff, and the locked MON the Foundation bought back from early investors in an offer of up to $60M reported in Aug 2026, which stays on its original release calendar. The project's newest allocation statement covers Mar 31 2026 and no later edition exists. No public evidence of release in window — monitored.

checked · Sep 8 2026
4. Long-term locked or bankruptcy
0

There is no bankruptcy estate, no trustee and no court-ordered distribution attached to MON. Nothing sits in this row and nothing is expected to.

checked · Sep 8 2026
Buy pressure
1. Programmatic buyback
0

There is no programme that spends treasury money buying MON on the open market. Nothing of the kind is written into the protocol, and no open-market purchase was disclosed or executed in this window.

checked · Sep 8 2026
2. Protocol fee burn
~26.6M MON

Every transaction pays a base charge and that part is destroyed rather than paid to anyone. We proved it on a single block: it collected 1.5545 MON in fees and handed its leader only 0.0973 MON, and the 1.4572 MON left over is exactly the base charge — credited to no account anywhere. No burn address is involved and the burn address itself never moved; the coins simply stop existing. Across the window that came to 26.6M MON, against 473.4M created. The rate rose after the Jul 23 2026 change because each 300-millisecond block now carries more gas than a 400-millisecond one did.

updated · Sep 8 2026
3. Foundation buy
0

The Monad Foundation bought no MON on the open market. Its one purchase this window was of locked coins from early investors, which never touched the tradable float — see the tracked row below.

checked · Sep 8 2026
4. New long-term lock
0

Nothing new was locked away. Staking does not count here either: unstaking clears after a single epoch of about four hours, so staked MON is not removed from the market in any durable sense.

checked · Sep 8 2026
5. Locked-supply repurchase (tracked, off-float)
0

Reported Aug 18 2026: the Monad Foundation offered up to $60M to buy locked MON back from early investors at a discount, and nearly everyone approached said no. It counts as zero buy pressure on purpose. The coins bought were locked, so they were never part of the tradable float, and they stay on their original release calendar — the purchase changes who collects part of the Nov 24 2026 cliff, not how much of it arrives.

checked · Sep 8 2026

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Supply check · sell, buy & net
 
Last 90D
Next 90D
Sell total (M MON)
185.238
16793.340
Buy total (M MON)
26.574
33.025
Sell % of circ
+1.566%
+142.014%
Buy % of circ
+0.225%
+0.279%
Net inflation %
+1.342%
+141.734%
Score (0–2)
1.0
0.0
Verdict
mixed
avoid
Circulating supply: 11825.165M MON
Read the inflation analysis
The full Pressure Framework write-up for MON.
Why one date in November matters more than every other number on this page.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of MON, Metric 1 (Inflation Monitor). Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated Sep 8, 2026.