MON Inflation Analysis · October 2026 · Supply growing · projected to keep growing

The MrNasdog Pressure Framework reads Monad's MON supply as growing: +3.27% net over the last 90 days and +142.68% over the next 90. In the last 90 days, 180.1M MON of staking rewards reached holders and the Monad Foundation paid out 242.8M MON, while the base-fee burn destroyed only 36.25M MON. The next 90 days are a different story: the first-year lock on team and investor coins ends on Nov 24 2026, releasing about 16.48B MON by Dec 24 2026, more than the 11.83B MON that circulate today. The monitor reads +0.02%, because the supply figure it follows has not moved since Apr 14 2026.

The verdict, in one paragraph

Over the 90 days to Oct 9 2026, MON's tradable supply grew +3.27%: 422.9M MON entered the float (180.1M of staking rewards and 242.8M of Monad Foundation payouts) and 36.25M MON were burned in fees. The monitor reads +0.02%, a gap of 3.25 percentage points, which is over the 0.5-point line, so the page carries a ⚠ monitor gap chip. We walked every source class and found the reason: the monitor's supply figure is a fixed count of the free float that sat near 10.83B MON from launch, stepped to 11.83B MON on Apr 14 2026, and has not moved since, while the Monad chain kept minting new MON every block and the Foundation kept paying out. Our number stays. For the next 90 days we project +142.68%, because of the Nov 24 2026 unlock. In one line: Monad is a young Layer 1 whose float is about to more than double.

Sell pressure: where new MON comes from

Protocol inflation is the steady source. Every Monad block mints a fixed reward for the stakers of the validator that produced it: 25 MON a block until the MIP-12 upgrade of Jul 23 2026, and 18 MON since, when blocks sped up from 0.4 to 0.3 seconds and the reward was cut in proportion. Across the window that minted 465.4M MON. The Monad Foundation delegates part of its Ecosystem Development pool to about 170 validators, and its 10.91B MON of stake earned about 285.3M MON of those rewards, which stay in the Foundation's pool. The other 180.1M MON went to ordinary stakers and validator commissions, and that is the part that adds to the tradable supply. At the current pace of about 285,700 blocks a day, the next 90 days add about 182.8M MON the same way.

Vesting unlocks are zero for the window just ended and enormous for the next one. All team, investor and Category Labs Treasury coins have been locked since mainnet launch on Nov 24 2025. On Nov 24 2026 the Monad Foundation says about 10.7B team coins are released, and investors receive a quarter of their 19.68B allocation, about 4.92B MON. Monthly releases start on Dec 24 2026: 410.07M MON for investors (1/48 of their allocation) and about 452.48M MON for the team, whose remaining coins release over the three years after the cliff. That is 16.48B MON in the next 90 days.

Foundation and unscheduled unlocks are the second live source. The Monad Foundation's main Ecosystem Development wallet refilled its payout wallets with 250M MON on Jul 17 2026, and those wallets sent 242.8M MON net to outside wallets over the 90 days, in batches every week or two, as grants and payments to builders and partners. The payouts ran before the window too, so we expect about the same 242.8M MON in the next 90 days. The long-term locked or bankruptcy row is zero: no estate or court holds MON.

Buy pressure: where new MON goes

The only working buyer is the protocol fee burn. Monad destroys the base fee of every transaction, and it charges that fee on the gas a transaction reserves, not only on the gas it uses. Over the 90 days the burn removed about 36.25M MON, around 403,000 a day, with 14.95M MON of that in the last 30 days as the chain got busier. Priority tips go to validators and are not burned. Set against 422.9M MON of new coins reaching the market, the burn is small.

The programmatic buyback row is zero. Category Labs, the company that develops Monad, has said it may buy up to $80M of MON on the open market by Dec 31 2026, but it has disclosed no purchase and no wallet, so nothing is booked. The Foundation buy row is zero as well: in August 2026 the Foundation offered up to $60M to early investors for their locked coins, nearly all of them declined, and any coins it bought stay locked on the original schedule. New long-term locks are zero because staked MON can be withdrawn and still counts as circulating, so the 15.47B MON now staked takes nothing out of the float.

Foundation and overhang

The Monad Foundation stewards the Ecosystem Development pool: 38.23B MON on Mar 31 2026, unlocked but outside the tradable float. On-chain we follow three parts of it. The main wallet holds 17.14B MON and moves rarely, in large refills. The payout wallets hold 48.7M MON and send coins out every week or two. The 20 staking wallets hold 10.91B MON delegated to validators and 2.64B MON liquid, which grows as staking rewards are claimed; they sent nothing to outside wallets in the window. The Category Labs Treasury holds 3.95B MON, locked until Nov 24 2026, after which a quarter opens and then 1/48 each month into the company's own hands. Behind them sit the locked team and investor allocations of 26.99B and 19.68B MON, which release on the schedule above until Nov 2029. We re-read the Foundation wallets on-chain at every rebuild and its allocation reports by hand. If any of these balances falls between refreshes, the outflow enters the Foundation and unscheduled unlocks row at the next refresh.

How MON compares to other high-speed Layer 1s

Monad belongs to the young, venture-funded Layer 1s that launched with a small float and a large locked pile, like Sui and Aptos did. Those chains also pay stakers in new coins and also opened large team and investor allocations after their first year, and their supply curves were shaped far more by unlocks than by staking rewards. MON follows the same pattern: a fixed per-block reward worth about 1.9% of the initial supply a year, against a first cliff and first monthly release worth about 139% of today's float.

Against Ethereum, the mechanism is close but the balance is not. Both mint rewards for stakers and both burn the base fee. Ethereum has no locked pile left, so its supply moves by a fraction of a percent; Monad's burn is small next to its reward, and its unlock schedule runs until Nov 2029. Against Solana, which pays a percentage-based inflation that steps down each year, Monad's reward is a fixed number of coins per block, so its inflation rate falls only slowly as supply grows.

The other difference is who holds the stake and who pays out. Most of Monad's staked coins belong to the Foundation's delegation program, and the rewards on that stake stay in the Foundation's pool. That keeps today's reward inflation on the float lower than the headline reward suggests, but the same pool funds a steady stream of grants and payments, so the Foundation's spending matters as much as the reward itself.

What to watch in the next 90 days

Nov 24 2026: the first-year cliff releases about 10.7B team and 4.92B investor MON, plus a quarter of the Category Labs Treasury; watch how much moves to exchanges in the days after.

Dec 24 2026: the first monthly release, about 410.07M investor and 452.48M team MON.

Dec 31 2026: the end of Category Labs' authorization to buy up to $80M of MON on the open market; any disclosed purchase would enter the buyback row.

The Monad Foundation's payout wallets and its next allocation report, which would show how much of the Ecosystem Development pool went out since Mar 31 2026, and any change to the staking reward or the validator set.

Summary

Monad's MON supply grew +3.27% in the 90 days to Oct 9 2026, as 180.1M MON of staking rewards and 242.8M MON of Foundation payouts reached the market and the fee burn removed only 36.25M MON. The next 90 days are dominated by the Nov 24 2026 cliff: about 16.48B MON of team and investor coins are due by Dec 24 2026, which puts the projected change at +142.68%. The key risk is how many of those coins are sold, with no buyback of real size in place to meet them. MON has no supply cap, the per-block reward keeps minting, and the locked schedule runs until Nov 2029.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of MON, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Checked Oct 9 2026.