OOP · Optimism
Inflation analysis
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MrNasdog Pressure Framework

OP · not one new token is minted, and the tradable float still climbs.

OP is the governance token of Optimism, an Ethereum layer-2 network — 2,288.0M circulating against a fixed 4,295.0M that has never grown.

Sell pressure. Not one new coin. But the 2022 investor and contributor allocations keep unlocking on the Collective’s published calendar, and 147.9M OP crossed from restricted into freely tradable over 90 days.

Buy pressure. None that landed. The revenue-funded buyback holds the same 9.5M OP at both ends of the window, and there is no fee burn.

Net. About 6.47% goes to market over 90 days and 3.63% next.

Inflation
Last 90 Days
+6.47%
updated · Sep 8, 2026
Net flow: 6.47% of supply goes to market over 90 days
Next 90 Days
+3.63%
estimate
Net flow: 3.63% of supply goes to market next 90 days
Supply growing · projected to keep growing
Upcoming · Next 90 Days
  • Mint lock lifts · rate still set to zeroceiling 85.9M OP
    Oct 28 2026 · added to market
Sell pressure
1. Protocol inflation
0

No new OP is created. Every token that exists was made in one go in 2022, and the count of OP in existence was slightly lower at the end of the window than at the start — it fell by a fifth of a single coin. Stakers and validators are not paid in new OP at all. A mint function does exist and it still answers; it is locked to one controller wallet, capped at 2% of supply a year, and has never been used. That lock lifts on Oct 28 2026, and the rate governance has set for it is zero — so this row is watched rather than closed.

checked · Sep 8 2026
2. Vesting unlocks
~147.9M OP

This is the entire supply story. The 2022 investor, contributor and ecosystem allocations are handed out on the Collective's published calendar, and 147.9M OP stopped being restricted and became freely tradable across these 90 days. Two parts make that number: the project's own supply file rose from 2,154.7M to 2,288.0M, and the wallet that pays out contributor and investor coins released a further 14.7M on chain in late August that the file has not caught up with yet. Nothing is minted to do this; the coins already existed, they simply were not free to trade. There is no lock contract holding them — each allocation sits in an ordinary wallet and is paid out by hand on schedule.

updated · Sep 8 2026
3. Foundation + unscheduled unlocks
0

Nothing left the Collective's own wallets into the market this window — every one of them was read at both ends and none moved outward. That changes ahead: the Collective's own year-five budget plans 210M OP of ecosystem and governance-fund deployment over the year, which is where the forward reading comes from. Watched as overhang: 2,007.0M OP still sits outside the tradable float, of which two Collective safes hold 1,294.0M and 318.5M; a third safe, opened Jul 31 2026, received 142.0M from the second on Aug 7 2026 and still holds 134.0M; and an Aug 19 2026 vote moved 546.9M out of the user airdrop reserve into a new Foundation-directed fund on paper, with no coins moving. None of it is on a release calendar of its own. No public evidence of release in window — monitored.

checked · Sep 8 2026
4. Long-term locked or bankruptcy
0

There is no bankruptcy estate, no trustee and no court-ordered distribution attached to OP. Nothing sits in this row and nothing is expected to.

checked · Sep 8 2026
Buy pressure
1. Programmatic buyback
0

A buyback exists and it is real: a vote passed in January 2026 sends half of the network's sequencer revenue into buying OP on the open market for a year. It bought nothing in these 90 days. The wallet that receives the purchases holds exactly 9,451,924.208178954 OP at both ends of the window, and its complete history is eight transfers, all of them before this window opened — the last one on May 1 2026. Four monthly settlements have been missed since. Bought coins are parked in the treasury, not destroyed.

updated · Sep 8 2026
2. Protocol fee burn
0

There is no fee burn on OP. The network's sequencer revenue goes to the Foundation to redistribute, not to a furnace. Both places where coins can disappear were read at both ends of the window: the unspendable address rose by a hundred-thousandth of a coin, and the count of OP in existence fell by a fifth of a coin. Both moved, both are independent of each other, and both are far too small to register.

updated · Sep 8 2026
3. Foundation buy
0

The Foundation bought no OP on the market outside the buyback programme above. Its own wallets moved coins between each other during the window but took none in from outside.

checked · Sep 8 2026
4. New long-term lock
0

Nothing new was locked away. OP has no staking contract that removes coins from the tradable float, and no lockup was announced or deployed in this window.

checked · Sep 8 2026
5. Custody rotation of the 2022 allocations
0

The single largest OP movement of the quarter, and it changed nothing. On Jul 22 2026, in one 25-minute burst, 118 wallets that had sat untouched since their 2022 allocation emptied a combined 545.5M OP into 118 fresh wallets — every one of them drained to exactly zero. That is four times the amount the project reclassified as tradable in the same window, so it is tracked here rather than counted as supply reaching the market. Where those fresh wallets send their coins next is not on any calendar.

updated · Sep 8 2026

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Supply check · sell, buy & net
 
Last 90D
Next 90D
Sell total (M OP)
147.927
83.100
Buy total (M OP)
0.000
0.000
Sell % of circ
+6.465%
+3.632%
Buy % of circ
0.000%
0.000%
Net inflation %
+6.465%
+3.632%
Score (0–2)
0.0
0.3
Verdict
avoid
avoid
Circulating supply: 2287.995M OP
Read the inflation analysis
The full Pressure Framework write-up for OP.
Why a token that mints nothing still adds supply to the market every quarter.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of OP, Metric 1 (Inflation Monitor). Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated Sep 8, 2026.