OOP · Optimism
Inflation analysis
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MrNasdog Pressure Framework

OP · a fixed-cap token still dripping large vesting cliffs into a thin float.

OP is the governance token of Optimism and the Superchain — ~2.29B circulating against a fixed 4.29B cap. There is no protocol mint; every bit of supply growth is the original allocation vesting into the market, and it comes in big lumps rather than a smooth drip.

Sell pressure. About 135.7M OP vested into the float last quarter, most of it in one mid-July cliff. A larger 116M OP unlock is scheduled for Sep 21 2026.

Buy pressure. A real revenue buyback absorbs about 4.7M OP a quarter — half of Superchain sequencer revenue — but the bought OP is held in treasury, not burned, and it is small next to the unlocks.

Net. Supply is growing about 5.7% a quarter and projected to keep growing — the token keeps inflating while the vesting schedule runs.

Inflation
Last 90 Days
+5.73%
updated · Jul 31 2026
Net flow: 5.73% of supply goes to market over 90 days
Next 90 Days
+5.52%
estimate
Net flow: 5.52% of supply goes to market next 90 days
Supply growing · projected to keep growing
monitor gap · Monitor reads +6.31% for the quarter; primary reads +5.73%. On-chain the buyback wallet 0x36c4E68d… held 9.45M OP on Jul 31 2026 (Feb 2026 execution 1.57M OP) — a ~4.7M/90D buy the monitor still counts as circulating, so the framework nets it out. The ~0.6pp residual is that hold plus the denominator base.
Upcoming · Next 90 Days
  • Large vesting cliff~116M OP
    Sep 21 2026 · added to market
Sell pressure
1. Protocol inflation
0

OP has no protocol mint. The Optimism chain does not issue OP to secure the network, and total supply is fixed at 4.29B (2 to the 32nd). No new OP can ever be created, so this channel is always zero.

permanent · no change
2. Vesting unlocks
~135.7M OP

This is the whole story for OP. Supply growth is the original allocation vesting into the market — core contributors, investors, and the foundation-run seed, partner, governance and ecosystem funds, plus airdrops. Over the last 90 days circulating rose from about 2.15B to 2.29B, roughly 135.7M OP, most of it in a single mid-July cliff. The next big one is a 116M OP unlock on Sep 21 2026, which is why the forward number stays high.

updated · Jul 31 2026
3. Foundation + unscheduled unlocks
0

About 2.01B OP is still non-circulating across the ecosystem, partner, governance and seed funds plus the Foundation treasury. That is a large overhang, but it is released on the vesting schedule already counted in row 2, and no separate off-schedule sale was seen in the window. No public evidence of release in window — monitored.

checked · Jul 31 2026
4. Long-term locked or bankruptcy
0

There is no Optimism bankruptcy estate, no trustee, and no court-ordered distribution. Nothing can enter the market from this row.

permanent · no change
Buy pressure
1. Programmatic buyback
~4.7M OP

Optimism directs 50% of net Superchain sequencer revenue into recurring OP buybacks — a 12-month pilot the community approved on Jan 28 2026 with 84.4% in favor, live since February at about 1.575M OP a month. That is roughly 4.7M OP absorbed over the quarter. The bought OP is held in a treasury wallet (about 9.45M OP so far), not burned, so it removes float today but could return later by governance vote.

updated · Jul 31 2026
2. Protocol fee burn
0

OP Mainnet charges gas in ETH, and the base-fee burn destroys ETH, not OP. Network activity never removes OP from supply, so there is no fee burn on the token itself.

permanent · no change
3. Foundation buy
0

The revenue buyback in row 1 is the only OP the Foundation is acquiring. No separate open-market purchase has been disclosed. No public evidence of a separate buy in window — monitored.

checked · Jul 31 2026
4. New long-term lock
0

No new OP staking or lockup contract was deployed in the window, and OP has no protocol staking that removes float. Nothing was locked away here.

checked · Jul 31 2026

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Supply check · sell, buy & net
 
Last 90D
Next 90D
Sell total (M OP)
135.700
131.000
Buy total (M OP)
4.700
4.700
Sell % of circ
+5.935%
+5.729%
Buy % of circ
+0.206%
+0.206%
Net inflation %
+5.729%
+5.524%
Score (0–2)
0.0
0.0
Verdict
avoid
avoid
Circulating supply: 2286.470M OP
Read the inflation analysis
The full Pressure Framework write-up for OP.
Why a capped token still runs inflationary, and what the revenue buyback changes.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of OP, Metric 1 (Inflation Monitor). Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated Jul 31 2026.