OP Inflation Analysis · October 2026 · Supply growing · projected to keep growing
OP supply is growing by about +1.26% per 90 days, and the MrNasdog Pressure Framework projects about +1.90% for the next 90 days. No OP is minted: all 4.29B OP were created in 2022. The growth comes from the Optimism Foundation handing out its reserve as grants (33.96M OP in 90 days), only partly offset by a fee-funded buyback that took back 4.94M OP. The Foundation still holds about 1.75B OP, so the ceiling on new circulating supply is set by its spending, not by code.
The verdict, in one paragraph
Over the 90 days from Jul 11 to Oct 9 2026, 33.96M OP entered circulation and 4.94M OP left it, a net change of +1.26% on a circulating supply of 2.30B OP. The next 90 days add about 48.91M OP against about 5.20M OP of buybacks, or +1.90%. The supply monitor reads +6.49% for the same window, a gap of 5.23 percentage points, so the page carries a ⚠ monitor gap note. That gap is one late recount: on Jul 15 2026 the Foundation's circulating count jumped 122.26M OP in a single update to catch up with coins that had already unlocked before the window, which alone is 5.66 points. OP is a treasury-release token: a fixed supply that the Foundation spends into the market, a little faster than the Optimism chains buy it back.
Sell pressure: where new OP comes from
Protocol inflation is 0. The OP token contract on OP Mainnet read 4,294,963,292 OPof total supply at both ends of the window; it actually fell by about a quarter of one OP as holders burned dust. The token keeps a mint option of up to 2% of supply a year, held by the Foundation's reserve Safe, and that option opens again on Oct 28 2026. The Foundation's policy is 0% unless a governance vote changes it, so no OP is booked for it.
Vesting unlocks are 0 for the last 90 days. The investor allocation of 735.86M OP is fully out; its last slice came in May 2026. Early-team coins stood at 686.92M OPthrough the whole window. The Foundation's Year 5 plan, published Aug 6 2026, still expects 35.22M more early-team OP by Apr 30 2027, which works out to about 14.95M OP in the next 90 days.
Foundation grants are the main source: 33.96M OP. We read every Foundation wallet at both ends of the window and every transfer in between, and the two agree to the coin. The money flowed from the treasury into a new Safe (142M OP moved on Aug 7 2026), from there to a payout wallet, and from the payout wallet to grant takers: 6.16M OP in July, 4.52M in August and 23.28M in September. Grants arrive in weekly batches, so the next 90 days project the same 33.96M.
Long-term locks and bankruptcy releases are 0. No estate, trustee or long lock is paying OP out.
Buy pressure: where new OP goes
The programmatic buyback took back 4.94M OP. Since February 2026 governance has sent half of the Superchain fee revenue, which arrives in ETH, to buy OP over the counter. One purchase settled in this window: 4,937,457 OP on Oct 1 2026. The coins sit in the buyback wallet, which now holds 14.39M OP; they are not burned, but the Foundation removes them from its circulating count, so they count as taken off the market. Spending the same dollars at today's price buys about 5.20M OP in the next 90 days.
The protocol fee burn is 0. Gas on OP Mainnet and the other Optimism chains is paid in ETH, so using the network burns no OP. Foundation buying is 0 outside the buyback, and new long-term locks are 0: OP has no staking and no lock program.
Foundation and overhang
About 41% of all OP is still in Foundation hands. Its reserve Safe holds 1,294.04M OP and has not moved this window; its treasury holds 318.48M OP; the new Safe it funded on Aug 7 2026 holds 113.36M OP; a grants Safe holds 21.39M OP; and the payout wallet holds 7.49M OP. On Aug 24 2026 governance passed a proposal that turns the unused 546.9M OP airdrop pool into a Strategic Ecosystem Fund for partner deals, with terms reported once a year. About 123.41M OPof the early-team allocation is not yet out. The Foundation's Year 5 plan aims to release about 200M OP from its ecosystem fund by Apr 30 2027, far faster than the recent grant pace, so that plan is the biggest upside risk to the forecast.
We re-read every one of these wallets at each rebuild. If any of these balances falls between refreshes, the outflow enters the Foundation row of the ledger at the next refresh.
How OP compares to other Layer-2 tokens
Most Layer-2 tokens, OP included, were minted in full at launch and earn nothing from gas, which is paid in ETH. Their supply grows by release, not by printing: a foundation or DAO treasury, team and investor vesting, and grant programs decide how fast coins reach the market. On that measure OP is past its heaviest phase — its investor vesting is finished and its team vesting nearly so — but its foundation treasury is unusually large and still spending.
Where OP differs is the buyback. Arbitrum's ARB, Starknet's STRK and Polygon's POL rely on treasury policy and staking design, while Optimism ties part of its chain revenue to buying OP back. So far the buyback is small next to the grants: 4.94M OP taken back against 33.96M OP handed out.
Compared with Layer-1 coins that print new coins to pay validators, OP has no built-in issuance at all. Its inflation is a spending decision, which can stop quickly — or speed up quickly, as the Strategic Ecosystem Fund shows.
What to watch in the next 90 days
Oct 28 2026: the mint option of up to 2% of supply (about 85.9M OP) opens again; any vote to use it would move the protocol inflation row off zero.
Monthly buyback reports:the Oct 1 2026 purchase has not yet been described in the governance thread, and the program's first 12 months run on 2026 revenue; a pause or a bigger revenue month changes the buy side.
The Strategic Ecosystem Fund:the first deals paid from the 546.9M OP pool would show up as outflows from the Foundation's wallets.
The Foundation's circulating count:its next update should take out the Oct 1 2026 buyback and add September's grants; another catch-up jump would widen the monitor gap again.
Summary
OP supply is growing by about +1.26% per 90 days and is projected at about +1.90% for the next 90 days, because the Optimism Foundation hands out more OP in grants than its fee-funded buyback takes back. No OP is minted and the 4.29B supply is fixed for now, but the Foundation still controls about 1.75B OP in its wallets, and governance has just re-labelled 546.9M OP of unused airdrop coins as a deal fund. The key risk is the pace of that spending; the cap is the 4.29B total and a 2% yearly mint option that policy keeps at zero.
MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of OP, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Checked Oct 9 2026.