PUMP Inflation Analysis · October 2026 · Supply growing · projected to keep growing

PUMP, the token of the Pump.fun coin launchpad on Solana, is inflationary on its tradable float: in the 90 days to Oct 2 2026, 82.75B PUMP of team and backer coins left the locked wallets, while the Pump.fun buyback burned 22.07B PUMP. Net, the float grew +13.05%, and the next 90 days project +2.03% as the monthly unlocks continue and the burn keeps going. No new PUMP can be created, so the ceiling is the 830.4B PUMP that still exist.

The verdict, in one paragraph

Over the last 90 days, PUMP supply on the market grew a net +13.05%: 82.75B unlocked minus 22.07B burned, measured against 464.91B PUMP in circulation. The monitor reads +14.92%, a gap of 1.87 percentage points. We checked that gap in full: the monitor counts the same flow of about 60.5B PUMP but divides it by the smaller float of 90 days ago (about 405B); on today's float it reads +13.00%, within 0.05 points of ours. So the gap is closed and no warning is shown. For the next 90 days the reading is +2.03%. In one line: PUMP is a revenue-burn token still absorbing its insider unlocks.

Sell pressure: where new PUMP comes from

Protocol inflation is 0. The power to mint PUMP was removed from the token, so Pump.fun can never create more than the 1 trillion PUMP made at launch in July 2025. Every new coin on the market comes from wallets that were already holding PUMP outside the float.

Vesting unlocks are the whole sell side: 82.75B PUMP in 90 days. The Pump.fun team holds 200B PUMP and early backers 130B; both were locked for one year, a quarter of each unlocked in July 2026, and the rest unlocks in equal monthly parts until mid-2029, about 6.88B PUMP a month. The main locked wallet released 20B on Sep 8 2026 and 54B on Sep 13 2026 into payout wallets, which then paid hundreds of insider wallets on Sep 14. A separate 30B backer wallet that pays one share a month released 8.75B (8.125B on Aug 26 and 0.625B on Sep 12 2026). The big July payout of about 57.3B PUMP came from payout wallets that had been filled on Jun 25 2026, before this window, so it is not counted again. For the next 90 days, three monthly unlocks on Oct 12, Nov 12 and Dec 12 2026 add about 20.6B PUMP.

Foundation and unscheduled unlocks are 0 this window. Two large idle wallets outside the float, holding 80B and 35B PUMP, have not moved since July 2025, and no schedule or announcement says when they will. Long-term locks and bankruptcy are also 0: no court estate or trustee holds PUMP.

Buy pressure: where new PUMP goes

The programmatic buyback is the whole buy side. Since Apr 28 2026, 50% of Pump.fun revenue buys PUMP on the open market every day and burns it at once; the rule is locked for one year. In the 90 days to Oct 1 2026, Pump.fun earned $131.93M, spent $67.15M on PUMP and burned 22.07B PUMP. The two buyback wallets hold zero PUMP, and the total supply on-chain keeps falling: it was about 830.4B on Oct 2 2026, down from 1 trillion at launch, so about 169.6B PUMP, nearly 17% of everything ever made, is gone for good.

The buyback is set in dollars, not in coins. PUMP roughly tripled in price over the window, so the same spending buys fewer coins: at today's price of about $0.0060, the trailing $67.15M would burn about 11.2B PUMP in the next 90 days. There is no separate fee burn (the fee money that destroys PUMP is the buyback itself), no foundation buying, and no staking or new lock-up, so those three rows are 0.

Foundation and overhang

Four wallets sit outside the PUMP float and together hold about 365.5B PUMP, which matches the gap between total supply and circulating supply almost exactly. The main locked wallet holds 229.26B (303.26B at the start of the window); it received all 1 trillion PUMP at launch and pays out the team and backer unlocks in large steps. Two idle wallets hold 80B and 35B and have been still since July 2025. The 30B backer wallet holds 21.25B and pays about 0.625B a month.

Two payout wallets that pay insiders each month hold about 23B PUMP, but those coins already count as circulating, so their monthly payouts move coins within the float and add nothing to the ledger. They are still the coins most likely to be sold soon. Pump.fun has no DAO and PUMP carries no voting rights. We read these wallets at every rebuild: if any of the four outside wallets falls between checks, the outflow enters the sell side at the next refresh.

How PUMP compares to other revenue-buyback tokens

PUMP belongs to the small group of tokens whose own business revenue buys the token back. Exchange tokens with a scheduled quarterly burn destroy coins on a calendar; perpetual-exchange tokens that route trading fees into buybacks often hold the bought coins in a fund instead of destroying them. Pump.fun does the most direct version: half of revenue, every day, bought and burned the same day, with no fund in between. On the buy side that makes PUMP one of the cleanest burn mechanisms in crypto, and the burn has already removed nearly 17% of the original supply.

The difference is the sell side. Most mature buyback tokens have finished their insider vesting, so the burn shows up as a shrinking supply. PUMP is only in the first months of a three-year team and backer unlock: about 6.88B PUMP a month leaves the locked wallets, and the payout wallets released two very large rounds of about 57B each in July and September 2026. A fixed cap with no minting puts PUMP closer to capped tokens than to uncapped chains that pay stakers in new coins, but until the unlocks slow, the float grows faster than the burn shrinks it.

The balance can shift quickly. The burn depends on Pump.fun revenue, which jumped to about $15.8M in the last week of September 2026, and on the PUMP price: a higher price means fewer coins burned per dollar. The unlocks, by contrast, are fixed in coins. That is why the forward reading of +2.03% is far lower than the last 90 days: it counts only the scheduled monthly unlocks, which the burn nearly cancels out. If the locked wallets release another large step like September's, the real number will be much higher.

What to watch in the next 90 days

Oct 12 2026: the next monthly team and backer unlock, about 6.88B PUMP; the same again on Nov 12 2026 and Dec 12 2026.

Any new move from the main locked wallet (229.26B) or the two idle wallets (80B and 35B). Each earlier release came in one large step a day or two before a payout round, so a sudden drop in these balances is the first sign of a big new round.

Pump.fun weekly revenue, which sets the size of the burn. Revenue near $15M a week would burn more than the trailing pace; a fall back toward early-summer levels would burn less.

Rule changes to the buyback. The 50% buy-and-burn is locked until about Apr 28 2027; a cut in trading fees or a change in how revenue is counted would change the burn before then.

Summary

PUMP supply on the market grew +13.05% in the 90 days to Oct 2 2026, because 82.75B PUMP of team and backer coins unlocked while the Pump.fun buyback burned 22.07B. The next 90 days project +2.03%: about 20.6B of monthly unlocks against about 11.2B burned at today's price. No PUMP can ever be minted, and the burn has already destroyed nearly 17% of the original 1 trillion, but about 365.5B PUMP still sits in wallets outside the float. The main risk is another large release from those wallets; the ceiling is the 830.4B PUMP that exist today.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of PUMP, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Checked Oct 2 2026.