PUMP Inflation Analysis · October 2026 · Supply was growing · trend cooling
Supply was growing · trend cooling. In the 90 days to Oct 13 2026, locked team, investor and program wallets released 83.38B PUMP into the market while the Pump.fun buyback bought and burned 21.16B PUMP, so the PUMP float grew by +13.42%. For the next 90 days, two monthly unlocks add about 15B PUMP and the buyback should burn about 15.18B PUMP at today's price, which puts PUMP close to flat at −0.04%. No new PUMP can ever be created: total supply only goes down.
The verdict, in one paragraph
Our 90-day net for PUMP is +13.42% of the circulating supply. The inflation monitor reads +15.27%, a gap of 1.85 percentage points, which is more than our 0.5-point line, so we walked every source again. The flows are the same on both sides: the monitor divides the growth by the float of 90 days ago (about 402B PUMP), and we divide it by today's float of 463.45B PUMP. Put on the same base, the two readings sit within a fraction of a point, so no warning is shown on the page. The short label for PUMP today: a fixed-supply token whose insider unlocks came in faster than its revenue buyback could burn them, now roughly in balance.
Sell pressure: where new PUMP comes from
Protocol inflation is 0. All 1 trillion PUMP were created on Jul 10 2025, and the right to create more was removed from the Solana token. There is no mining, no staking reward and no emission schedule, so Pump.fun cannot print new PUMP even if it wanted to.
Vesting unlocks are 83.38B PUMP, and they are the whole sell side. The team holds 20% and early investors hold 13% of the original supply. Both were locked for one year after the July 2025 token sale; the cliff passed on Jul 12 2026, releasing a quarter of their 330B PUMP, and since then 1/48 of it, about 6.875B PUMP, vests every month on the 12th. The main custody wallet does not pay out every month: it moved 20B PUMP on Sep 8 2026 and 54B PUMP on Sep 13 2026 to two payout wallets, which paid about 120 holders on Sep 14 2026. A separate 30B allocation wallet that follows the same cliff released 9.38B PUMP (8.13B on Aug 26 2026, then 625M on Sep 12 and Oct 12 2026). For the next 90 days, the Nov 12 and Dec 12 2026 tranches add about 15B PUMP.
Foundation and unscheduled unlocks are 0. Two project wallets holding 80B and 35B PUMP have not moved since July 2025 and have no public schedule. Until they move, they add nothing.
Long-term locks and bankruptcy are 0. No court, estate or long lock is releasing PUMP.
Buy pressure: where new PUMP goes
The programmatic buyback is 21.16B PUMP.Since Apr 28 2026, half of Pump.fun's net revenue from the bonding curve, PumpSwap and Terminal buys PUMP on the open market every day, and the coins are burned at once through a contract locked for one year. In the last 90 days that spent $75.4M, about 51% of the revenue in the same days, and destroyed 21.16B PUMP. On Oct 12 2026 alone it burned about 205M PUMP for $1.14M. Because the program is set in dollars, the PUMP it removes depends on the price: the same $75.4M at today's price of about $0.005 buys 15.18B PUMP in the next 90 days. Since launch, buybacks have removed 171.4B PUMP, about 17% of the original supply.
The protocol fee burn is 0 as a separate line. Every PUMP burn comes from the buyback, so we count it once. Foundation buying is 0: no project wallet buys and keeps PUMP, and the coins bought before April 2026 were all burned at the end of that month. New long-term locks are 0: PUMP has no staking or lock program.
Foundation and overhang
Four wallets sit outside the PUMP float, and together they hold 364.9B PUMP, the whole gap between total and circulating supply. The main custody wallet holds 229.26B PUMP: almost exactly the team and investor PUMP still to vest (about 226.9B after the Oct 12 2026 tranche), plus about 2.4B. Two idle project wallets hold 80B and 35B PUMP. The 30B allocation wallet has 20.62B PUMPleft and pays 625M a month. Two payout wallets that hand team and investor coins to holders keep about 22.6B PUMP between rounds, but those are already counted as circulating, so their payouts add nothing new. Both buyback wallets hold zero, because every coin bought is burned. We read all of these wallets on-chain every day: if any locked wallet's balance falls between checks, the outflow enters the sell side at the next check.
How PUMP compares to other revenue-buyback tokens
PUMP belongs to the small group of app tokens that turn real revenue into buybacks. Next to a perp-exchange token that sends most of its fees to buybacks, PUMP sends a fixed half of revenue and burns the coins instead of keeping them, so the buyback shrinks total supply rather than filling a treasury. Next to a DEX token with a fee switch, PUMP's buyback is far larger compared with its value: about $75M in 90 days against a market value near $2.3B.
The difference from those tokens is the unlock calendar. Many exchange and DEX tokens finished their insider vesting years ago. PUMP is at the start of its: the team and investor share vests until mid-2029, so a steady 6.875B PUMP a month keeps arriving, and the custody wallet tends to release it in large lumps. Compared with a layer-1 chain that pays validators in new coins, PUMP has no issuance at all, so once the unlocks end, every buyback dollar makes the supply smaller.
What to watch in the next 90 days
Nov 12 2026 and Dec 12 2026: the next two monthly tranches, about 7.5B PUMP each with the allocation wallet. The custody wallet may release several months at once, as it did in September.
Jan 12 2027: one day past this window, the next tranche lands; it will enter the next reading.
Daily buyback size: the burn follows Pump.fun revenue. Fees jumped in late September 2026; a drop in meme-coin trading would shrink the burn, and a higher PUMP price means fewer coins burned per dollar.
The two idle wallets (80B and 35B PUMP): any move would be new supply with no schedule behind it.
Summary
PUMP's supply grew +13.42% in the 90 days to Oct 13 2026, because 83.38B PUMP of team, investor and program unlocks reached the market against a 21.16B PUMP buyback burn. For the next 90 days the two sides are close to even, about 15B PUMP in and 15.18B PUMP burned, for a net near −0.04%. No new PUMP can be created, so supply can only fall over time; the risk is lumpy insider releases from a custody wallet still holding 229.26B PUMP, and a buyback that depends on how busy Pump.fun stays.
MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of PUMP, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Checked Oct 13 2026.