MrNasdog Pressure Framework · full analysis
A Solana DEX with a permanent supply cap, finished team vesting, and a 12% buyback wired into every product. 269.16M circulating, 555M total. We walk the same eight rows we walk for every coin and let the framework answer.
Setup
Raydium is the dominant AMM on Solana. The token has a permanent 555M cap — the on-chain mint authority was revoked once the original 3-year vesting schedule completed, so no new RAY can be created. The framework asks one structural question for any coin:
Net 90d % = (sell total − buy total) / circulating × 100
Sell from four sources (protocol inflation, vesting unlocks, Foundation discretion, long-term locked / bankruptcy). Buy from four matching sources (programmatic buyback, protocol fee burn, Foundation buying, new long-term locks). Everything below is one of those eight rows.
Part 1 · Sell pressureto market
Last 90 days · sell total
0.00% of circulating
Next 90 days · sell projected
~0.00% of circulating
SOURCE #1
Last 90 days
RAY is a Solana SPL token with no mint function. The mint authority was revoked once vesting completed; total cap is permanent at 555M. No new RAY can be created.
Next 90 days
Same — the cap is on-chain and immutable.
SOURCE #2
Last 90 days
Team, investor, partner and liquidity-mining allocations were all on a 3-year linear schedule from TGE. The schedule fully expired and cannot be extended without forking the protocol.
Next 90 days
Same — no future cliffs are possible.
SOURCE #3
Last 90 days
No public evidence of release in window — monitored. Two team-controlled overhangs are tracked: (1) non-circulating reserve ~285.84M — partner / ecosystem allocations sitting outside circulating supply with no published forward schedule, no disclosed deploy in the trailing 1-year transparency record; (2) buyback accumulation wallet ~71M — the on-chain destination of the 12%-of-fees buyback, balance has not moved at the last refresh.
Next 90 days
Stays 0 unless an outflow event is observed at the next refresh from either overhang — chain RPC for the buyback wallet (24h cadence), web walk for the non-circulating reserve (bi-weekly cadence).
Is this rule-based? No. Combined capacity is large (~357M across both pools), but capacity is not cadence. We require an observed firing — wallet outflow or official disclosure — to project a non-zero quantum. Tag: checked.
SOURCE #4
Last 90 days
No bankruptcy estate involved with RAY. No long-term lockup releases scheduled.
Next 90 days
Same expectation — no scheduled long-term release in the window.
Part 2 · Buy pressureoff market
Last 90 days · buy total
1.30% of circulating
Next 90 days · buy projected
~1.30% of circulating
SOURCE #1
Last 90 days
12% of every swap fee across the AMM, CLMM, and CPMM products is converted on-market into RAY and forwarded to a single accumulation wallet. Over the last 90 days the protocol bought ~$2.24M worth of RAY at recent prices — ~3.5M RAY at the implied rate. The treasury wallet now holds ~71M RAY (verifiable on-chain).
Next 90 days
Project at the same trailing pace. A swap-volume spike (consumer-app launch, memecoin cycle) would push it higher; a quiet quarter would pull it down 30–50%.
Is this rule-based? Yes — the 12% split is encoded in the protocol fee logic across every product. Mechanism is fixed; magnitude is variable with swap-volume demand.
SOURCE #2
Last 90 days
RAY has no burn function. Bought-back RAY is held in the treasury wallet, never destroyed.
Next 90 days
Same expectation.
SOURCE #3
Last 90 days
The programmatic buyback in row #1 is the entire buy-side mechanism. There is no separate Foundation accumulation programme.
Next 90 days
Same expectation.
SOURCE #4
Last 90 days
Accumulation in the buyback treasury is already counted in row #1. No fresh staking-cap expansion or lockup programme announced.
Next 90 days
Same — no programme announced for the next 90 days.
Net result
Plug the totals back into the formula:
Last 90 days = (0.00M − 3.50M) / 269.16M × 100 = -1.30% (off market)
Next 90 days = (0.00M − 3.50M) / 269.16M × 100 = -1.30% (off market)
The structural read for RAY is deflationary on the active float. The permanent cap and finished vesting eliminate any rule-based sell pressure; no disclosed reserve deploy lands in the window; and the 12% fee-based buyback routes a continuous flow of swap fees into open-market RAY purchases. The next 90 days project to roughly the same pace because both inputs are continuous.
Three caveats. First, the bought-back RAY is HELD in an accumulation wallet, not burned — so the supply is removed from active trading float but is not destroyed. Second, the Foundation has not deployed from the ~285.84M non-circulating reserve in the last year of transparency reporting, but capacity exists; any future deploy enters Sell #3 at the next refresh. Third, the buyback magnitude tracks Raydium's swap-volume cycle; a quiet quarter for Solana DEX activity would shrink the buy side.
MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of RAY, Metric 1 (Inflation Monitor). Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated Jun 3, 2026.