MrNasdog Pressure Framework · full analysis
No hard cap. ~5.186B total supply, ~2696M circulating (CG-style, excludes frozen miners + Believers Fund + Foundation custody). One question, walked through four sell sources and four buy sources, over the last 90 days and the next 90 days. No price talk.
TON is the native asset of The Open Network. Two tokenomics events dominated the 2026 picture: Catchain 2.0 (Apr 10) cut block time 2.5s → 400ms and lifted the theoretical inflation ceiling from 0.6%/yr to 3.6%/yr; and Telegram's May 4 takeover replaced TON Foundation as primary network driver. The structural sell ledger is dominated by the Believers Fund monthly unlock — a 36-month vest from Oct 2025 → Oct 2028 distributing ~36.59M TON per month from on-chain locker `believers.ton`.
Net 90d % = (sell total − buy total) / circulating × 100
Sell from four sources: protocol emission, vesting unlocks, Foundation discretion, long-term locked / bankruptcy. Buy from four matching sources. The buy ledger is effectively empty: 50% native fee burn exists but is structurally negligible at current activity.
Last 90 days · sell total
6.05% of circulating
Next 90 days · sell projected
~6.23% of circulating
SOURCE #1
Last 90 days
Validators earn 1.7 TON per masterchain block + 1.0 TON per basechain block. Catchain 2.0 activated Apr 10 2026 14:32 UTC cut block time 2.5s → 400ms. Corrected via a regulated-validator quarterly filing: April annualized staking yield ~16.7% × ~612M staked = ~25M post-Catchain over 47 days. Weighted with 43 pre-Catchain days at ~88K TON/day → ~43M / 90d.
Next 90 days
Full Catchain ramp. Extrapolating the April rate (~25M / 47d) to a full 90-day window gives ~48M.
Is this rule-based? Yes — block reward × time. The realized rate is a moving target as Catchain 2.0 propagates through validators; expect material upward revision again on the next refresh.
SOURCE #2
Last 90 days
Two sub-buckets, both Tag A by rule on-chain. Believers Fund: locker contract distributes ~36.59M TON per month on a 36-month schedule from Oct 12 2025 → Oct 2028 (3 monthly cliffs per 90d = ~109.8M); 28 monthly periods remain. Telegram team/partner vest: ~3.45M TON / month (1,440-day linear + 360-day cliff per primary tokenomics research); ~21M still vesting. Window total ~120.2M.
Next 90 days
Three more Believers Fund cliffs (Jun 9 / Jul 9 / Aug 9) + 3 monthly Telegram team-vest tranches. Same ~120M.
Is this rule-based? Yes — both schedules are on-chain contract mechanics. The Believers Fund unlock cadence is verifiable at the locker contract; the Telegram team-vest schedule is the standard 1,440-day linear + 360-day cliff used for TON team allocations. Whether recipients sell vs hold is Tag B behavior; the framework reports the structural release.
SOURCE #3
Last 90 days
Foundation runs Champion Grants + a $420.69M PIPE treasury vehicle (Kingsway-Capital-led, Apr 2026 shelf registration). No published Foundation wallet registry → on-chain deployment cannot be cleanly enumerated. Trailing 90d outflows visible on Tonviewer ≈ 0. May 4 Telegram takeover may shift custody to validator-controlled stakes — those are custody flips, not market sells.
Next 90 days
Same — Tag B watching. The line to watch: post-Telegram-takeover wallet enumeration, plus any deployment programme announcement.
Is this rule-based?No. Foundation deployment is governance-discretionary, and Telegram's role as new primary driver is still emerging (announced May 4 2026).
SOURCE #4
Last 90 days
1,081,389,417 TON in 171 dormant miner wallets is frozen by validator vote until Feb 21, 2027 — outside this 90d window. Will dominate the Q4 2026 / Q1 2027 refresh as the unlock approaches.
Next 90 days
Same — unlock ~9 months out.
Last 90 days · buy total
0.00% of circulating
Next 90 days · buy projected
~0.00% of circulating
SOURCE #1
Last 90 days
No protocol-level buyback mechanism. No Foundation buyback programme.
SOURCE #2
Last 90 days
50% of all transaction + storage fees go to a burn address (live since mid-2023). Observed burn ~1,098 TON / day × 90 ≈ 99K TON. Negligible vs the sell side.
Next 90 days
Base fee cut 6× on May 1 2026 (0.00039 TON ≈ $0.0005). Even with promised volume growth, CC-denominated burn likely halves to ~0.05M / 90d until tx count grows materially.
Is this rule-based? Yes — burn is mechanical (50% of fees, every block). The number is small because TON tx volume is, not because the rule is weak.
SOURCE #3
Last 90 days
Foundation is a NET DISTRIBUTOR (Champion Grants out), not a buyer.
SOURCE #4
Last 90 days
Believers Fund is winding DOWN (releasing), not adding lock. No staking-lockup expansion or new lockup programme.
Plug the totals back into the formula:
Last 90 days = (163.2M − 0.10M) / 2696M × 100 = +6.05%
Next 90 days = (~168M − ~0.05M) / 2696M × 100 = +6.23%
TON is structurally sell-heavy for the next 36 months while the Believers Fund monthly schedule runs (~110M / 90d, every 90d, through Oct 2028). Validator emission adds another ~10–30M / 90d depending on Catchain 2.0 ramp. The native fee burn is structurally real but trivial vs the sell side at current activity.
Two events to watch: Catchain 2.0 inflation ramp (the realized rate is still climbing toward the 3.6% ceiling — could materially revise Sell #1 upward at the next refresh), and the Feb 21 2027 frozen-miner unlock (1.08B TON, ~40% of current circulating, lands ~9 months out — a Q4 2026 / Q1 2027 event).
MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of TON, Metrics 1 & 2. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated May 27, 2026.