MrNasdog Pressure Framework · full analysis
50B XLM cap (one-time genesis + burn). 33.54B circulating. Zero protocol inflation since Oct 2019. One question, walked through four sell sources and four buy sources. No price talk — just the structural read.
Stellar's tokenomics are categorically different from most chains. 100B XLM was minted at network launch in 2014. In Nov 2019 the Stellar Development Foundation voluntarily destroyed 55B of its own holdings (105B → 50B total supply). Two weeks earlier the network had activated CAP-26 — Disable Inflation Mechanism, ending protocol issuance permanently. The cap has stayed at 50B since.
Net 90d % = (sell total − buy total) / circulating × 100
Sell from four sources; buy from four matching sources. For XLM, Sell #1 / #2 / #4 are all zero by design; only Sell #3 — SDF discretionary disbursement — is non-zero. The buy ledger is also nearly empty: Stellar fees flow into a permanently-locked account (functionally equivalent to a burn) but the pool accrues at a trivial rate at current network activity.
Last 90 days · sell total
1.79% of circulating
Next 90 days · sell projected
~2.09% of circulating
SOURCE #1
Last 90 days
Disabled forever. CAP-26 activated protocol-12 on 28 Oct 2019. No further mint mechanism exists. Confirmed zero.
Next 90 days
Same — disabled at the protocol level.
SOURCE #2
Last 90 days
No vesting schedule exists. Stellar's 100B → 50B was a one-time genesis-then-burn event (Nov 2019). All SDF flow is row #3 discretionary, not scheduled.
Next 90 days
Same — zero scheduled cliffs ever.
SOURCE #3
Last 90 days
SDF holds 16.19B XLM (32.4% of total) across 13 published wallets across four programmes (SDF Development / Stellar Growth / Product & Innovation / Assets & Liquidity). SDF balance Feb 26 ≈ 16.79B → May 26 = 16.19B → −600M deployed to market over the window. Verifiable per-wallet via Horizon API.
Next 90 days
Q2-to-date pace ~470M in 56 days = 8.4M/day = 756M/90d — accelerating from Q1's ~340M. Central projection ~700M / 90d (range 400-900M). Stellar Community Fund v7.0 launch (Jan 2026) + Assets/Liquidity programme spin-up + RWA-growth-driven Enterprise Fund deployments are the drivers. May mean-revert.
Is this rule-based?No. SDF disbursement is fully discretionary — no published curve, no cliff schedule. SDF publishes quarterly reports AFTER the fact, doesn't pre-commit to pace. The 13 published wallet addresses make the trailing balance trajectory fully transparent — Tag B watching with high-quality observability.
SOURCE #4
Last 90 days
No staking lockups (Stellar Consensus Protocol is federated BFT, not PoS — validators don't stake XLM). No bankruptcy estate.
Last 90 days · buy total
0.001% of circulating
Next 90 days · buy projected
~0.002% of circulating
SOURCE #1
Last 90 days
No protocol-level buyback. SDF only deploys (sells), never buys back.
SOURCE #2
Last 90 days
All transaction fees flow to a permanently-locked account by protocol design — fees are NOT given to validators, NOT redistributed, NOT technically burned, but the locked account has no controlling entity. Functionally equivalent to a burn for circulating-supply purposes. Stellar fees are 0.00001 XLM/op by design — pool accrues at ~8,200 XLM/day at Q1 2026 pace.
Next 90 days
Project at the same daily rate. Soroban smart-contract activity could lift this if it scales materially, but Stellar fees are structurally tiny — even 100× the current activity would only bring this to ~0.05% of supply per 90d.
Is this rule-based? Yes — the locked-fee-pool mechanism is hard-coded. The economic effect mirrors a burn: permanent removal of those XLM from circulation. The number is small because the fee design is.
SOURCE #3
Last 90 days
SDF only deploys, never buys. No DAO buy programme.
SOURCE #4
Last 90 days
No staking on Stellar (federated BFT, not PoS). No staking-lockup expansion or new lockup programme.
Plug the totals back into the formula:
Last 90 days = (600M − 0.5M) / 33540M × 100 = +1.79%
Next 90 days = (~700M − ~0.7M) / 33540M × 100 = +2.08%
XLM is mildly inflationary at the current pace, driven entirely by SDF discretionary disbursement. The buy side is structurally real (locked fee pool) but ~1000× too small to matter at current activity. SDF holds 16.19B XLMstill to deploy — at the current Q2 pace that's about 18 quarters of runway (~4.5 years), supporting the long-run Foundation calibration of "30B XLM usable over a decade" from the 2019 burn.
The line to watch is the SDF wallet balance trajectory across the 13 published addresses. A pace step-up (Stellar Community Fund v7.0 + Assets/Liquidity build-out happened in Q1-Q2 2026) lifts the sell row; a pace step-down (mean-reversion toward the 2.1B/year long-run average) compresses it.
Cross-check. The end-of-pipeline monitor reads circulating-supply growth of ~+1.96% over the same window — within 0.2pp of our primary structural reading (+1.79%). ✓ verified.
MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of XLM, Metrics 1 & 2. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated May 27, 2026.