FF Inflation Analysis · October 2026 · Supply growing · projected to keep growing

FF, the governance token of Falcon Finance, is inflating fast on its tradable float even though its total supply can never grow. In the 90 days to Oct 7 2026, 373.06M FFleft the project's four lock wallets and joined the 3.34B FF float, with no buyback and no burn on the other side: net +11.16%. The next 90 days hold three monthly unlocks worth 609.17M FF, or +18.22%, because the team and investor cliff ended on Sep 29 2026. The hard ceiling is the fixed supply of 10B FF; 6.66B of it is still locked.

The verdict, in one paragraph

Our ledger reads +11.16% for the last 90 days and +18.22% for the next 90 days. The supply monitor reads +12.56%, a gap of 1.41 percentage points. We walked every source and found the same coins on both sides: the monitor counts 373.16M FF of new float, we count 373.06M FF. The whole gap is the base each side divides by. The monitor divides by the float of 90 days ago (2.97B FF); we divide by today's float (3.34B FF). Our own flow on the monitor's base gives 12.56%, so no warning chip is needed. In one line: FF is a fixed-supply token whose float is still being filled from project locks, month after month.

Sell pressure: where new FF comes from

Protocol inflation is 0, and it will stay 0. All 10B FF were created in one transaction when the token contract was deployed in September 2025. The verified FF contract has no mint function, no owner and no upgrade path, and its total supply read exactly 10B FF at both ends of the window. Every new coin that reaches the market comes out of a lock, not out of thin air.

Vesting unlocks added 68.06M FF. Team and investor tokens had a one-year cliff from the Sep 29 2025 launch, followed by 36 monthly payments. The first payment left the locks on Oct 1 2026: 55.56M FF from the team lock and 12.5M FF from the investor lock. Both payments were staked within minutes. A Falcon governance vote, FIP-2, closed on Sep 28 2026 with no votes against, and it keeps every team, investor and airdrop payment that unlocks between Sep 29 and Dec 29 2026 staked for three months before it is handed over. Staked FF still counts as circulating, so the payment counts the day it leaves the lock; the vote only delays when those holders can sell. Three more payments fall in the next 90 days, on Oct 29, Nov 29 and Dec 29 2026: 204.17M FF.

Foundation and unscheduled unlocks added 305.0M FF, the largest row. The ecosystem lock paid 75M FF a month to a project wallet, on Aug 5, Sep 2 and Oct 1 2026, a pattern that has repeated every month since July 2026. The foundation lock paid its first monthly tranche of 60M FF on Oct 1 2026, exactly one 36th of what it held. A smaller launch wallet released its last 20M FF on Aug 5 2026 and is now empty. For the next 90 days we book 405M FF here: 75M from the ecosystem and 60M from the foundation in each of the three months.

Long-term locked or bankruptcy supply is 0. No estate, trustee or court case holds FF.

Buy pressure: where new FF goes

The programmatic buyback is 0. Falcon Finance earns money from the yield strategies behind its USDf synthetic dollar, but that income goes to the sUSDf yield, and no FF buyback has run or been given a wallet. The protocol fee burn is 0: the FF contract has no burn function, total supply stayed at 10B FF, and the dead address held the same 0.13 FF at both ends of the window. The foundation buy is 0: no announcement or on-chain flow shows a project wallet buying FF.

The new long-term lock is 0, even though staking grew. FF staked as sFF rose from 140.2M to 206.0M FF over the window, partly because the team and investor payments were staked on Oct 1 2026. Flexible sFF can be withdrawn after a 3-day wait, and staked FF still sits inside the float. Staking slows selling; it does not remove coins.

Foundation and overhang

The overhang is large and fully visible on-chain. Four lock wallets still hold 6.66B FF: the ecosystem lock with 2.18B, the foundation lock with 2.10B, the team lock with 1.94B and the investor lock with 437.5M. At today's monthly pace of about 203M FF, they keep paying out until 2029. These four are exactly the coins the float leaves out, so every payment from them counts as new supply.

Project wallets that already sit inside the float hold more: the ecosystem payout wallet keeps 823M FF and has never sent a coin out, two foundation wallets hold 300M FF, a payout wallet funded by a launch wallet holds 276M FF, and a wallet funded by the marketing allocation holds 190M FF. Moves from these wallets do not change the count, because the coins already circulate, but they show how much FF the project can still place on the market. We read all of these balances at every rebuild. If any lock balance falls between refreshes, the outflow enters the sell side at the next refresh.

How FF compares to other DeFi governance tokens

FF belongs to the large group of DeFi governance tokens launched with a fixed cap and a low starting float. Compared with tokens that pay holders through a fee-funded buyback, FF has no buyer on the other side of its unlocks: every coin that leaves a lock is pure new float. Compared with chain tokens that print new coins for validators, FF never prints, but its unlock pace is many times faster, because one third of supply circulates and two thirds still have to arrive.

The closest structural match is a stablecoin protocol whose token earns little of the protocol's income directly. The protocol itself is growing: Falcon reported USDf supply of $1.21B at the end of September 2026. But that growth flows to USDf and sUSDf holders, not to FF supply. Until a fee burn or buyback exists, FF supply only moves one way, and the governance vote to stake the first unlocks is a delay on selling, not a cut in supply.

What to watch in the next 90 days

Oct 29 2026: the second monthly unlock, about 203.06M FF from the team, investor, foundation and ecosystem locks.

Nov 29 2026: the third monthly unlock, the same size.

Dec 29 2026: the fourth monthly unlock, and the date the first staked team and investor payment is handed to its holders under FIP-2. From then on, those coins can be sold.

Any new Falcon governance vote that changes the staking rule, starts a buyback, or burns FF. None is open today.

Summary

Falcon Finance's FF has a fixed supply of 10B and no way to mint more, yet its tradable float grew +11.16% in the last 90 days and is set to grow +18.22% in the next 90 days, as four project locks pay out on a monthly schedule. Nothing offsets it: no buyback, no burn, and staking does not leave the float. The key risk is December 29 2026, when the first staked team and investor coins are handed over. The ceiling is the 6.66B FF still locked, released month by month into 2029.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of FF, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Checked Oct 8 2026.