Flat for now. Insider coins unlock from Dec 30.
LIT is the token of Lighter, a perpetual futures exchange: 250M coins circulate, only a quarter of all LIT.
Sell pressure. Nothing new reached the market in 90 days. But the 500M team and investor lock ends on Dec 30 2026, releasing about 13.51M LIT a month.
Buy pressure. Fees bought about 2.37M LIT, and July burned 15.64M, yet neither shrinks the float: the bought coins stay in it, and the burn came from the reserve.
Net. Net 0.00% over 90 days; +5.41% next.
LIT has no emission. All 1 billion coins were created in one go in October 2025, and total supply read exactly 1B at both ends of the window. The token contract has no mint function anyone can call. Staking rewards are paid with coins that are already on the market, not new ones.
Nothing vested in the last 90 days: the 500M LIT held by the team (26%) and investors (24%) sat in the same wallets at both ends of the window, to the coin. Their one-year lock ends on Dec 30 2026, inside the next 90 days. Then about 13.51M LIT is released each month for three years, until late 2029. One unlock calendar puts the first release a month later, on Jan 28 2027; we count the earlier date.
The ecosystem reserve holds 234.26M LIT with no release schedule. Its only payment to the market so far was 100,000 LIT on Jul 3 2026, just before this window; its only other move was the 15.64M sent to be burned on Jul 10. Two buyback piles sit inside the float: the parked wallet holding 10.57M LIT (it pays stakers) and the exchange's buyback account holding 2.51M LIT.
No estate, trustee or long lock pays LIT out. The 500M team and investor coins are covered in row 2.
Lighter spends trading fees on LIT every day: about 2.37M LIT for $7.33M in these 90 days, and its buyback account now holds 2.51M LIT. But the bought coins stay inside the circulating count. The last quarter's pile, 15.64M LIT, was moved on Jul 10 to a parked wallet that now pays stakers. So the buying takes nothing out of the float.
On Jul 10 2026, 15.64M LIT went to a dead address, and it is gone for good. But those coins came from the ecosystem reserve, which was never counted as circulating, so the market float did not shrink. If the next burn also comes from the reserve, it will book 0 too.
No team or reserve wallet bought LIT this window outside the fee buyback in row 1.
112.37M LIT is staked, which gives fee discounts and access to the exchange's liquidity pool. But anyone can leave with three days' notice, and staked LIT still counts as circulating, so staking locks nothing away.
Two sides: how much people want LIT right now, and how much buying could come later.
This part is based on social media. It shows how hot LIT is right now. A better rank means more people are talking about it.
Today, people are talking about LIT for one reason:
On Oct 6 2026 several trading accounts on X said they were betting against LIT, one claiming a $2.5 million short, and said big wallets were selling before token unlocks. No official unlock schedule confirms that claim, but LIT fell about 3% that day and is near $3.57, down about 6% in seven days. People ask when the next team and investor unlocks really are, and whether Lighter will start a new points season.
Checked Oct 9 2026
Supply and demand point to a mixed long-run signal for Lighter (Oct 11 2026, score 4/10). Lighter adds +5.41% new supply in 90 days, and demand reads strong (3.5/5). Lighter's price drivers: 2 ▲ price up, 1 ▼ price down.
Hyperliquid, clearly: 8.5/10 against Lighter's 4/10 on Oct 10 2026. Demand is fairly close (4.5/5 vs 3.5/5), so supply makes the gap. Hyperliquid adds +0.51% in a year, while Lighter adds +54.05%, which leaves Lighter's buyers far more new coins to absorb. By supply and demand, Lighter's long-run signal is mixed today.
Two things likely help. Money on Lighter fell by half after Dec 2025 but is slowly rebuilding, and Robinhood Wallet deposits keep rising. Supply is the brake: +5.41% new LIT in 90 days, so the price probably needs fresh buyers just to hold. By supply and demand, Lighter's long-run signal is mixed today.
We would read Lighter differently if new supply keeps arriving (+5.41% in 90 days), or demand falls from strong, or Regulated access keeps pointing down. Until then Lighter's signal stays mixed. Mark this date for Lighter: No date yet — Lighter CFTC license.
Lighter scores 4/10 on our framework (Oct 11 2026): supply 0.5/5 (flooding), demand 3.5/5. Over the next year Lighter's supply changes +54.05%. The long-run signal is mixed.
Supply and demand favor Lighter most when little new supply is coming, demand is strong and the price drivers point up. Right now Lighter has +5.41% new supply in 90 days (flooding), demand strong (3.5/5), drivers 2 ▲ / 1 ▼.
Lighter's price drivers today: 2 pointing up, 1 pointing down, out of 3. ▲ Money on Lighter: Money on Lighter fell by half after Dec 2025, now slowly rebuilding. ▲ Robinhood deposits: Robinhood Wallet deposits keep rising, though US perps went to Bitstamp. ▼ Regulated access: No US license filed yet; Robinhood's US perps went to Bitstamp.
Lighter: mixed signal, 4/10 · Bitcoin: positive signal, 8.5/10 (Oct 11 2026). By supply and demand, Lighter reads weaker than Bitcoin today.
Every answer here applies basic economic theory — the law of supply and demand — to this coin's data. It is not financial advice. How we read every coin →
We look at two things, half each: supply and demand. Fewer new coins mean less selling pressure. A meme coin scores 1.5 at most on supply: its team got its coins for free, so no new supply does not make it safe. We also show each coin's age, with a warning when it is younger than 1 year. Demand looks at how much people want the coin now and how much buying could come later. Price Drivers (Beta) are the 2 or 3 things that can move one coin's price that supply and demand miss; they have no score. LIT supply grows +5.41% in the next 90 days, so it shows in red: more LIT reaches the market than is removed. Zero or falling supply is always green, any growth is red.
One email before each big supply event, and the day our verdict changes. Nothing else. You can watch 2 coins for free.
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