LIT Inflation Analysis · October 2026 · Mixed last 90D · projected to grow

Lighter's LIT supply was flat over the last 90 days, but it is set to grow: the team and investor lock ends on Dec 30 2026, and about 13.51M LIT reaches the market that day, then about the same every month to late 2029. Against the 250M LIT in circulation, that is 0.00% net for the last 90 days and +5.41% for the next 90. The fee buyback that runs every day and the July burn are both real, but neither takes coins out of the circulating float, so nothing on the buy side offsets the unlock.

The verdict, in one paragraph

Over the 90 days to Oct 4 2026, 0 LIT entered the float and 0 LIT left it, a net change of 0.00%. Our inflation monitor reads −0.19% for the same stretch, a gap of 0.19 percentage points, inside our 0.5-point tolerance, so no warning chip is shown. The next 90 days look different: the first insider release of 13.51M LIT on Dec 30 2026 makes it +5.41%, with no buy-side flow to offset it. LIT is a quiet float with a large locked half behind it: supply steady today, unlock-driven growth from the end of 2026.

Sell pressure: where new LIT comes from

Protocol inflation is 0. Lighter created all 1 billion LIT in one transaction in October 2025, total supply read exactly 1 billion at both ends of the window, and the LIT contract has no mint function anyone can call. Lighter pays its 6% staking reward with LIT that is already on the market, so staking does not print new coins either.

Vesting unlocks are 0 for the last 90 days and 13.51M LIT for the next 90. The team holds 260M LIT (26%) and investors 240M (24%), all spread across about 260 wallets before the token launched on Dec 30 2025. We read every one of those wallets at both ends of the window: together they held exactly 500M LITat the start and the end, and no single wallet's balance fell. The one-year lock ends on Dec 30 2026, and the LIT vesting then runs monthly for three years. One unlock calendar shows the first release that day; another shows it a month later, on Jan 28 2027. We count the earlier date, because the LIT sits in ordinary wallets with no on-chain lock to stop it moving.

Foundation and unscheduled unlocks are 0. The ecosystem reserve, which holds 234.26M LIT, paid out only 100,000 LIT on Jul 3 2026, three days before this window began, and nothing since except the coins it sent to be burned. Long-term locks and bankruptcy are 0: no estate or trustee holds LIT.

Buy pressure: where new LIT goes

The programmatic buyback is real but books 0. Lighter spends its trading fees on LIT every day through 24-hour orders: about 2.37M LIT for $7.33M over these 90 days, and its buyback account held 2.51M LIT on Oct 4 2026. Those coins stay inside the circulating count. The previous quarter's pile, 15.64M LIT, left the exchange on Jul 10 2026 and went to a parked wallet that now pays stakers and other wallets; it still holds 10.57M LIT. Coins that move between market wallets do not shrink the float.

The protocol fee burn also books 0, and this is the part most LIT holders miss. On Jul 10 2026, 15.64M LIT went to a dead address and is gone for good, but it came from the ecosystem reserve, not from the bought coins. The reserve was never counted as circulating, so the burn shrank the locked pile, not the market float. A foundation buy is 0: no team wallet bought LIT outside the fee buyback. A new long-term lock is 0: 112.37M LITis staked for fee discounts and access to Lighter's liquidity pool, but stakers can leave with three days' notice and staked LIT still counts as circulating.

Foundation and overhang

Lighter's overhang is unusually large for its float. The biggest piece is the 500M LIT team and investor allocation, two times the whole circulating supply, which starts unlocking on Dec 30 2026 at about 13.51M LIT a month. Next is the ecosystem reserve, 234.26M LIT in one wallet with no published release schedule, used so far for one small incentive payment and the July burn. Inside the float sit two buyback piles: the parked wallet with 10.57M LITand the exchange's buyback account with 2.51M LIT. We read all of these balances on every rebuild. If any of them falls between checks, the outflow enters the unscheduled-unlock row of the Lighter LIT ledger at the next refresh.

How LIT compares to other perp-DEX tokens

Lighter belongs to the group of exchange tokens that spend trading fees on their own coin. Where Hyperliquid routes most of its fees into a fund that buys HYPE and simply keeps it, Lighter buys LIT every day and calls the result a burn. The difference on paper is small; the difference in the LIT ledger is that Lighter's July burn came from its unissued reserve, while the bought LIT went back into circulation through staking rewards. For a reader comparing perp-DEX tokens, a buyback only counts as buy pressure when the bought coins leave the market for good.

The second difference is the float. Only 25%of LIT is unlocked, the airdrop of December 2025. Most fee-buyback tokens launched with a larger share already trading, so their insider releases arrive into a bigger market. LIT's first year was quiet by design: no emission, no vesting, no reserve sales. That is why its supply number is flat today and why the one-year cliff matters so much: each monthly release equals about 5.4%of today's float.

Against a fixed-cap chain token, LIT has the same hard ceiling of 1 billion coins and no inflation, so all of its future supply growth comes from coins that already exist and are simply locked today. Unlike chain tokens that pay validators with new coins, Lighter LIT dilution has a known end date: the last vesting month falls in late 2029.

What to watch in the next 90 days

First, the Q3 burn: the July burn came about ten days after the quarter ended, so a second one may land in October 2026. If it again comes from the reserve it books 0; if Lighter burns the bought coins instead, it would finally count as buy pressure. Second, the buyback account: it held 2.51M LIT on Oct 4 2026, and where those coins go next decides whether the buyback ever shrinks the float. Third, the reserve wallet with 234.26M LIT, which has paid out only 100,000 LIT so far; a new incentive programme would show up there first. Fourth, the date itself: the team and investor lock ends on Dec 30 2026, and the first release of about 13.51M LIT is the biggest supply event in LIT's short history.

Summary

LIT, the token of the Lighter perpetual futures exchange, has a fixed supply of 1 billion and a flat float today: 0.00% net over the last 90 days against a monitor reading of −0.19%. The everyday fee buyback and the July burn of 15.64M LIT are real, but the bought coins stay in circulation and the burned coins came from the locked reserve. The key risk is the end of the one-year insider lock on Dec 30 2026, which adds about 13.51M LIT a month and takes the next 90 days to +5.41%. The ceiling is the 500M LIT team and investor allocation, which keeps unlocking every month until late 2029.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of LIT, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Checked Oct 4 2026.